domain:forecasting.substack.com
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
26m ago
"Due to the federal shutdown", data.census.gov is not responding to queries. You may want to ask again when the shutdown has ended.
felipec
unbelief
37m ago
This sounds a lot like "any snow flake is free to slide down the mountain, it is the avalanches that are the problem".
Snow flakes are not susceptible to social contagion.
Suppose there is a baker who runs an "Aryan Bakery" with a swastika in the logo, which is something which is very permissible from a freedom of speech point of view.
By making that claim you are proving my point.
An Aryan Bakery has nothing to do with Open Ideas, because there's no idea being expressed or defended.
Therefore it has nothing to do with the reasoning behind freedom of speech, which was all about ideas that could potentially benefit society.
The fact that you believe an Aryan Bakery has anything to do with actual freedom of speech shows the need for Open Ideas.
EdenicFaithful
Dark Wizard of Ravenclaw
44m ago
So, what are you reading?
Still on The Eternal Dissident: Rabbi Leonard I. Beerman and the Radical Imperative to Think and Act.
It seems strange that a Rabbi would proclaim himself agnostic and have his first sermon be about how Adam ought to have eaten the whole fruit of knowledge and not just part of it, but I have to agree with the introduction that there is an authenticity to it. Beerman, if he is to be believed, was inspired by the Spinozan God-as-nature idea, and argued that authentic doubt can be a religious stance.
The tropes fit perfectly into today's leftism: social justice, activism, inequality, racism, oppression, but these things must have made a different impression before Current Year. Various dubious aspects pepper the narrative, like support for the Rosenbergs. If there's one thing I've taken away from it, it is the reminder that I'm not exactly a church-goer myself, and that perhaps a renewed study of my relation to God is in order.
felipec
unbelief
45m ago
white supremacists are generally conflict theorists as well.
Let's look at some criteria and see how many apply to white supremacists:
- Conflict theorists treat politics as war. I don't see how that applies to white supremacists.
- Conflict theorists view debate as having a minor clarifying role at best. Doesn't apply.
- Conflict theorists treat the asymmetry of sides as their first and most important principle. Irrelevant.
- Conflict theorists think this is more often a convenient excuse than a real problem. Nothing to do with white supremacists.
- Conflict theorists think you can save the world by increasing passion. Nope.
- For a conflict theorist, intelligence is inadequate or even suspect. Definitely not.
- Conflict theorists think of free speech and open debate about the same way a 1950s Bircher would treat avowed Soviet agents coming into neighborhoods and trying to convince people of the merits of Communism. No.
- Conflict theorists think that stopping George Soros / the Koch brothers is the most important thing in the world. Nope.
- Conflict theorists think racism is a conflict between races. Ironically, no.
- When conflict theorists criticize democracy, it’s because it doesn’t give enough power to the average person – special interests can buy elections, or convince representatives to betray campaign promises in exchange for cash. No.
So the claim that "white supremacists are generally conflict theorists" doesn't seem to hold any water.
Your mistake is that you assumed "conflict theory vs. mistake theory" was isomorphic to the two sides of the culture war; it's not.
That's definitely a claim, but you have not substantiated it.
felipec
unbelief
57m ago
They can try, and they might temporarily succeed, but eventually they'll lose, because truth always wins in the long run.
That's precisely what most freedom of speech thinkers argued.
Also, it's not 2020, in 2025 social justice warriors are losing the culture war. The newer generations are not buying their propaganda any more.
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
1hr ago
There was a former Nazi official serving as the Bundeskanzler at one point.
Turniper
2hr ago
At the end of the day, getting married is a leap of trust. Some people figure out they are aligned in values and take the plunge early, trusting in mutual commitment to make it work. Others move as slowly as my fiancee and I did, and the official commitment is just recognition of a trust and commitment that already exists. At the end of the day, all you need to figure out is when you reach the point that you believe the two of you are on the same page about what a life together should look like, and how much you are willing to work and compromise in order to bring that dream into reality. The appropriate timeline for you will be greatly dependent on the potential spouse you are considering. Don't think about when you need to leap into bed as an answer you need to have worked out, but as a chance to build or test that level of trust and communication you need to develop to make a marriage work. If you wait too long and she dips because of it without giving you a chance to fix the issue, well, marriage wouldn't have worked out anyway.
ChickenOverlord
2hr ago
All good bro, thanks for all you do to run this place!
Southkraut
The rain fell gentlier.
2hr ago
This is true, but it makes no difference. The suppression of their views was thorough enought hat whatever secret views they might have held in the back of their minds could not compete with the decidedly un-suppressed leftist tendencies of German society.
pigeonburger
2hr ago
English is #2, and my gut feeling us #3 is Arabic, though the dated info I find puts Italian slightly ahead of it.
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
What are the most common second and third languages around you?
Where I'm at Spanish is obviously #2, but Vietnamese is #3. I think Arabic is probably the fourth- the various dialects of India are too... various to bump either of those.
JarJarJedi
2hr ago
Post-war Germany adopted this, at the Allies' command, and went full hog
Yes, but. Initially, the former Nazis were hard suppressed. Then, they were softly and quietly let back into the normal life. Of course, no openly proclaiming their views allowed ever, but you could be, e.g., ex-Nazi - especially if it's low level position - and hold a government job. Even be a lawyer or a judge. I assume most of them are dead by now, but how ironic would it be if an ex-Nazi judge would imprison a Jew under the censorship laws meant to prevent the recurrence of Nazi atrocities?
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3hr ago
Root for the Eagles today, I'm at the linc. If any of our Philly bros are in attendance hit me up for a beer. Go birds.
JarJarJedi
3hr ago
See, that's the difference. The left feels, with no supporting evidence (not that any were ever necessary), that the right wants to kill them. The right knows, on many past examples and repeated, incessant public confessions of the leftists themselves, that the left wants to kill them. And not only wants but does.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
3hr ago
Pre-19th century art. For any scene, type scene + renaissance/medieval into google. Can use any terminology related to European art, but ignore everything Romantic and onward. Or even neoclassical and onward. With the exceptions of like William Blake and Gustave Dore it’s junk. For the passion, you can type in any phrase and find accompanying art. There’s probably at least 1000 individual pieces for every sentence of the passion
https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/464349
There’s a cool collection of art with descriptions by a Jewish educational fund, too: https://talivisualmidrash.org.il/en/home/
This is less entertaining than a movie, but each piece is greater than any individual frame of a movie. Religious movies just never capture reverence or awe well.
Someone should devise a website that combines the best art, music, poetry and commentaries onto one web page for every scene in the Bible. That would be awesome.
ulyssessword
3hr ago
actually knowing how the mechanics work is a game-breaking superpower
See The Power of Ten for an exploration of that. TL;DR of every book in the series: The MC is a gamer dropped into a (real) world that runs on that game's logic. By using their (relatively modest) starting boost and (absurdly OP) mechanical knowledge, they grow powerful, save the world, and ascend to immortality.
I'm not sure about recommending that series based on its merits, but it absolutely 100% demonstrates that point.
Corvos
4hr ago
Old Testament, but The Promised Land is fun and free on Youtube:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=HSI04-1oLwg
The travails of Moses and the Israelites in the desert, done in the style of the Office. Funny without being a piss-take.
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
4hr ago
You can do the side content after finishing the story, and unless you want to absolutely rinse the final story boss you should.
Tanista
4hr ago
Just finished Passion of the Christ after attempting, and failing, to get back into the Chosen. Something about the story just doesn't click for me.
Recommendations for good Jesus-centered visual media?
sun_the_second
could survive a COD lobby and a gay furry discord server
5hr ago
My advice is to just go to the final area and finish the side content later, it's a better curve that way.
striker
5hr ago
Also Mach3 (or whatever other identical 3-blade I can find). I always use cream. I vary between cheap-as-chips shaving foam and more expensive lather with brush etc. I don’t think either gives me a better shave, but I feel better after the brush and lather exercise. It just takes a bit longer, so I don’t do it all the time. I rarely, if ever, cut. Can’t remember the last time I had one of any significance.
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
5hr ago
And yet there isn't a mass movement to remove stupid people from society.
Yes, there was. It was called "Eugenics" and "sterilize all the stupid people" was the American version of the movement. THey're the reason you can occasionally stumble across historical lines like "Thousands of people in X state were sterilized for feeblemindedness and being unfit". This was a popular political project, considered settled science, with broad institutional support.
But then they spent a chunk of the 30's bragging about how great it was that Mr. Hitler was finally enacting their ideas at scale in Europe (the European variant of eugenics generally focused on promoting more children among "the right sort"), and Western intelligencia is still reeling from the psychic scars of that endorsement. All that remains is grandfathered institutions like Planned Parenthood.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
5hr ago
You know, I've never liked that pre-final chapter in JRPGs where you get to fly around the world map and collect ultimate powerups before tackling the final dungeon and the BBEG. The only one that made it interesting was FF6, where you were putting the team back together.
Well, I am not enjoying it in Clair Obscur, it's just a boss fight after boss fight that all hit hard enough that you have to perfect that dodge timing. I kinda want to skip to the final boss, but FOMO is keeping me back.
Book of the Dead 3: Masquerade by RinoZ. Pretty confident that #4 will be up next on my reading list.
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