domain:streamable.com
Quantumfreakonomics
18hr ago
Those statistics don't look so small once they're concentrated in demographic areas you care about.
In the very specific demographic of "healthy upper-class American preteen girls", this flooding event will likely be a double-digit percentage of all deaths this year.
MartianNight
18hr ago
The project was pretty much under the radar until the ADL issued a statement last week. Now this might develop into a big story.
Ah yes, the organization that openly supports the establishment of a Jewish ethnostate on stolen land is deeply concerned about the theoretic possibility of “whites only enclaves” on privately purchased land in the US. I literally cannot imagine a group in America that has less of a leg to stand on to voice this concern than the Zionist hawks of the ADL.
MonkeyWithAMachinegun
Dancing to Tom Paine's Bones
19hr ago
What I've been noticing as I get older is that I'm able to do this less and less. When you consume new media while young, you are able to gloss over inconsistencies with ease. As you age, these become more jarring, eventually making consumption of new plot lines kind of difficult.
For me effective suspension of disbelief comes down to whether or not the there's internal consistency. It's not about how outlandish or even stupid-on-its-face the impossible element is, it's whether or not the story acts as though it believes in that impossible element. As soon as the story stops believing its own impossibility, then how am I supposed to believe in it?
Example. Magic exists? Okay sure why not, magic exists. Magic exists and it's a blessing to women and a curse to men? Okay sure, that gets explained well so it's all internally consistent. Magic exists and it's a blessing to women and a curse to men but men are still in charge of everything and women are poor downtrodden and oppressed? Wait hang on a second, how does that work? That doesn't make any sense, it should be the other way around if anything, and then I'm yanked out of my suspension of disbelief and I can't enjoy the show anymore.
Or when the show/movie/book/whatever starts piling on new impossible elements and just hand-waves their existence.
Example. Magic exists? Okay sure why not, magic exists. This group of soldiers are the best soldiers in the world? Okay sure why not, there are good soldiers and bad soldiers in our world, that's fine. This group of soldiers are the best soldiers in the world but now they're all going to act unbelievably retarded because we have to further the plot? Wait hang on a second, I thought these were the best soldiers in the world! Why are they acting like mouth-breathing retards now? Oh we're just glossing over that? They're all dead? Wait now they're all alive again? How did they teleport a thousand miles south in a week?
You have to give me grounds to suspend my disbelief, you can't just demand it, but I'll happily suspend my disbelief for any kind of media that tries to work with me. It doesn't even have to be good grounds to suspend my disbelief. Stories rarely go back 10,000 years in time to the first discovery of magic in the world and the painstaking process of discovering why it exists, it's usually just presented as a trusim. Magic exists in this world. And that's fine! That's good enough! Dragons exist in this world, sure why not, sounds fun! As long as there is an iota of "look this is essential to the story so just go with it" or "here is the history of how magic came to be" I'll run with it because that's how you get to enjoy the story. It's laziness that pulls me out.
quiet_NaN
22hr ago
I am not saying that this is impossible, but why cover up losses of the Bin Laden raid, even from a helicopter crash? Between the White House, the chain of command and the intelligence agencies, there were probably about a hundred people in the loop. I have a hard time imagining Obama saying "I will not have this day of triumph be overshadowed by some fucking technical failure. Make the bodies go away, I don't care how." This would be a textbook case of the coverup being worse than the crime. Just announce that some people died in the raid and classify the details for a decade.
Likewise, if I imagine a general being killed by Russian ballistic missiles, in most cases the body will not be in a state where you can put him in his quarters and pretend it was a natural death. So your theory would need an epicycle like "he died from a heart attack when a missile hit nearby", which would be a lot less plausible.
Or take the ships. Hundreds of sailors will very much be aware if the ship was hit by a rocket. A missile hit likely looks very distinct from an engine failure on satellite photos. Then you need to find a civilian ship to stage the collision. The mundane explanation is at least plausible: Navy vessels generally run without transponders, so sometimes they collide with ships, and due to the Suez canal there are a ton of merchant vessels in the red sea.
For special forces killed during some off-the-book op, I can almost see it. But even then, the straight and narrow would seem preferable. X was killed in action in that month during a classified operation, more details in half a century. Covering this up as a training accident would be complicated. If they were killed in infantry combat, you will need to make sure that the bodies burn in the crash. You will also need to find a plausible helicopter pilot whose body you can add to the pile. Presumably you don't want to murder them for it? You will waste a ton of taxpayer money on blowing up the helicopter, and you need the cooperation of the deceased soldiers comrades who should preferably confirm your story of them being hale before departing from their base for their training exercise. These soldiers will probably not be very sympathetic to you desecrating servicemen corpses to cover some minor international embarrassment.
Not really, no. It has some right angles is all.
Seconded, "looks like a swastika" is nonsense.
yofuckreddit
17hr ago
I'll mention that I went on a camping trip in the mountains a couple of months ago. I brought along a friend whose endurance broke down at a very specific (low) point and could go no further. Rain that was not in the forecast came down.... heavily. Very heavily. It was the most extreme thunderstorm of my life, and I was in a tent in a flood plain at night. I was so exhausted that I slept but when I woke the next morning I felt lucky.
The point being perhaps that even a relatively intelligent and well-equipped pack of adults can fuck up and roll the dice. I wish the girls wouldn't have been camping there, but a quick google suggests this is a 500-year rainfall. It just sucks.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
19hr ago
The Black's response to facing racial discrimination was the civil rights movement, which was way more effective than any attempt to build a black-only community in the US or elsewhere would have been.
The Civil Rights Movement allowed them to build or expand black-only communities in many major northern metropolitan areas (the South, of course, already had them).
Totalitarianit
23hr ago
These sort of small separatist community attempts always seem (at least in the US) to draw in very unsavory personality types. The reason why these never really last starts to make sense when you factor in the psycho-social dynamics and the broader moral framework of this society when it comes to race. Is there a single popular separatist here in the US that doesn't have some noticeable level of disagreeableness or collection of anti-social traits? It just seems like maintaining such a society requires an overt level of resentment or even hostility toward other races, which of course doesn't pair well with pro-social behavior or stable community-building.
Some might argue that Jared Taylor walks this fine line pretty well, and he can seem quite cordial, but after reading some of his writings he comes off as having at least some distrust and disdain for those outside his racial group.
The idea isn't necessarily unworkable. It seems like they've pulled off some version of it in South Africa with that town called Orania, but in practice here in the US it continuously attracts people whose motivations tend to be more about who they don't want around coupled with personality types that have a high tendency toward social dominance and rigid in-group/out-group belief systems. I can somewhat sympathize with the concept, but I find communities whose entry requires a shared racial animosity somewhat repulsive.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
8hr ago
Life is fragile and can be snuffed out at any moment. The day she crashed her bike I hugged her as tightly as her scrapes would allow. Not all parents are so lucky.
Ok, cool, but what policy do we implement to fix it? Because there are very much people out there trying to use this tragedy to implement a variety of policies. It's amazing how many anti-gubmint conservatives turn into nanny state liberals when a natural disaster occurs. Which is why it's important not to get too caught up in tragedies, it quickly becomes a con designed to get you to buy into an agenda.
I'm sure the crash was awful for your daughter and you both, but I'm having trouble parsing how you told the story. Are you taking an excessive parental responsibility when you say that you "forgot" to teach her about the brakes? Because it's just hard for me to imagine not going over the brakes before you even get on the bike in a "parts of the bike" kind of way, or a curious kid just asking what x does. I'm kind of assuming you did tell her about the brakes, but didn't drill using them enough that she remembered how to use the brakes quickly under pressure.
But regardless, what policy could prevent such a bike accident? Kids can't ride bikes! Parents can't teach their kids to ride bikes, they have to be enrolled in a Licensed Bicycle School! Kids can only ride bikes with complex and expensive Automatic Emergency Braking systems! The latter two are of course equivalent to "poor/disinterested kids can't ride bikes."
So sure, hug your kid. But keep your priorities straight.
TheDemonRazgriz
15hr ago
Maybe it’s a relatively small issue, but I have been immensely disappointed in the Trump II admin’s handling of the TikTok ban (which is to say, stonewalling it seemingly at all costs).
For one, the bill has remarkably plain text which they are openly violating. I’m open to hearing examples if people here think I’m wrong about this, but I think this is qualitatively different from most of the “Imperial Presidency” actions taken by Bush and Obama (and Trump I, and Biden). To my knowledge those situations generally relied on Congress abdicating its authority to the President or to the executive branch. For example all of the 21st century’s military escapades and undeclared wars, often described as being in defiance of Congressional authority, are actually operating with explicit approval in the form of the post-9/11 AUMF. Congress could repeal it at any time and reclaim its war-making authority, it simply chooses not to. Much the same for all the myriad powers now granted to federal agencies. In this case the executive is quite nakedly saying “this law has been passed, but we don’t like it, so we won’t enforce it.” This is not a power the branch is supposed to have.
Second is the way in which this came about. Trump had campaigned as a China hawk and, iirc, publicly supported the bill until an 11th-hour turnaround which was conveniently timed after an influx of campaign funds tied to Chinese business interests. This is, at best, not a good look.
And finally I just disagree with the substance. TikTok should be banned in the US, or at least sold to US owners. All the innate problems with algorithmic social media feeds, which are frankly bad enough on their own, are massively amplified when the company which owns and operates the algorithm is beholden to an explicitly hostile foreign power. There’s already pretty incontrovertible evidence that TikTok is tuned to mildly promote divisive content and to mildly suppress content critical of China (e.g. higher rates of Palestinian-related content but lower rates of Uyghur-related content versus similar social media apps, among others). The algorithm could trivially be tuned further in the event that Chinese-US relations deteriorate further, or just if the company’s state handlers want to. I don’t see a reason why we should need to accept that risk.
quiet_NaN
21hr ago
I think it is worse than that. This more seems like something designed as a coven from the very start.
Strict racial segregation in the US is not in overton window of the mainstream. Sure, caring about the socioeconomic/ethnic composition of your neighborhood is mainstream (and the line between good old racism and valid concerns about BLM riots or violent crime is at least blurry), but this is on the level of "I don't even want a black doctor in my community".
If you are willing to move to Bumpfuck, Nowhere, I imagine there are a ton of possible destinations which are low crime, low ethnic tensions. It takes a special person to pick the one which prides itself on being free of Blacks (and presumably Jews). Most likely, that person is a Neo-Nazi.
Everyone remotely mainstream might prefer a neighborhood where the overwhelming majority is White (and I guess there are plenty of rural communities where this is the case), but they will very much not want to live in Neo-Nazi Central any more than they would move to Corpsefucker Valley. Since WW2, being a Neo-Nazi has been low class. If I learn that X is a Neo-Nazi, my probability estimate of "X has a violent criminal past" and "X is in a gang" will skyrocket -- much more than it would if I learned that X was Black.
To be fair, there are also indirect effects to consider. Even if for some reason, you are fine with your kids going to a school where a majority of the children are raised on White supremacy, if you run any public-facing business catering to the mainstream, it will not survive the cancel mob. The wokes are not very big on nuance, after all. Telling them about your complicated philosophical arguments for an ethnically homogeneous community and how these are distinct from supremacist ideology will not stop them.
erwgv3g34
21hr ago
(yet another way that healthcare breaks market mechanisms, because hospitals don't like when people die, they treat people first and ask for payment after).
It's not that hospitals "don't like it", it's that they are legally forbidden from doing so. If it was legal to turn people out to die, you would absolutely have some cheaper hospitals that made sure you could pay out of pocket or had insurance before they treated you, and if you didn't they would just escort you off the property.
cjet79
18hr ago
Ya just a poster that comes through and always posts "oh look at these terrible Nazis and what they've done, how could they think these very specific things don't they know this is evil and wrong? Here is specific Nazi x y and z doing this new thing that barely anyone knows about. But now a Jewish newspaper has written about it."
DirtyWaterHotDog
19hr ago
RIP to the child. No parent should have to see their child pass away before them.
From my experience, camping near riverbeds is universally discouraged. Given the region's 'flash Flood Alley' title, I'd have expected precautions that mitigate these sort of freak accidents.
Unlike levee breaks, hurricanes, or tsunamis, rainfall based flash floods should be human escapable no ?
hydroacetylene
19hr ago
This is because all-white rural communities are a dime a dozen in the US. Seriously, if your goal is 'avoid blacks', it's just a lot easier to move to the towns which just... don't have them. 100% of people who moved there were making an intentional political statement.
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
19hr ago
Oh, it's you again. Your first few posts weren't so obvious this time - good job upping your game a little.
Now get a life.
So saying "oh fighter fell off bc evasive maneuver" smells like BS.
Concurred. I was onboard a carrier while it performed emergency maneuver drills after a shipyard period (max speed ahead to max speed reverse, full speed turns, exactly the sort of things you'd do as "evasive maneuvers"). None of the motion was violent enough to have caused a plane to fall off the ship during towing unless the person driving the tow vehicle was completed retarded. Carriers are huge and change directions very slowly.
That being said, I can also report from my time in the Navy that retards were very common and unbelievably expensive and unbelievably stupid accidents definitely happened.
IGI-111
God was a dream of good government.
21hr ago
Can you actually make a substantive argument as to why intentional ethnic enclaves are evil? Moreover can you make one that survives denouncement of the denial of the natural right to exit one's society?
Jiro
23hr ago
It's the real life equivalent of "your forum dedicated to free speech will have one principled free speech defender and ten zillion witches".
MathWizard
Good things are good
23hr ago
Contrarian take: if your goal is to actually find a soul mate and not just a number of short flings, don't do this. Be yourself, aggressively. DO mention your less conventional hobbies like anime on your profile, unapologetically. Be creative and unique and weird, in a way that turns off almost everyone EXCEPT for that rare person who actually likes who you are.
I did this for several years, and 90%+ of the women I messaged ignored me completely. I barely got any responses, and the conversations I did have usually didn't lead anywhere since I was a weird goofball. And then a girl who had D&D listed in her bio responded positively to my D&D inspired pickup line and we dated for several years before eventually getting married. And now we stay at home playing board games and playing with cats instead of having to do stupid things like go hiking or eating at restaurants the way I would if I had managed to convince a normal girl to date me.
Your advice is excellent for maximizing engagement. But you will spend a lot of time dating a lot of average people who like average things if you take it too far. Obviously some of your advice is just general good advice for emphasizing your positive traits that you already have and doesn't run into this issue. But I think being authentic in a negative way (by normie standards) is actually useful to help filter out the normies and find someone else who shares your quirks.
lollol
23hr ago
Howabout the Amish? they definitely separate from mainstream society. They seem popular, but I don't think it's from attracting outside people into that lifestyle but by breeding more from within themselves. Amish aren't particularly disagreeable seeing as they regularly participate in farmer's market or make transactions with non-Amish people (I've only heard generally good vibes about Amish construction/furniture).
WhiningCoil
23hr ago
I would say this has been broadly true, so far. However, with the last 10 years of naked anti-white racism on display at all levels of society, noticing is off the charts. It's going to be experiments like these that show if your thinking, which has been true my entire life at least, still holds true. Or if, just maybe, enough "good whites" have been burned enough to take a gamble on racial solidarity, and bring their prosocial traits with them.
John_Doe_Fletcher
anarcho-heretic, Quokkit guy
2hr ago
Random people online were able to sense a threat that leading experts weren’t able to sense, and made arguments that leading academics did not make. Why?
My belief, based on my recollections of the time, is that "leading experts" and "leading academics" were the originators of the social justice memeplex, and therefore wouldn't make arguments against it even if they could conceive of them. In support of this, the common dismissal at the time of "it's just college students spending too much time on tumblr" highlights that this memeplex's breeding ground was immediately downstream of leading academics. Or perhaps more accurately, academia was the superfund site and Tumblr was the groundwater.
Sorry if the metaphor is too dramatic, I'm feeling bitter.
FtttG
10hr ago
But in our conditions, you get a high-trust society by cracking down on fraud, teaching kids that fraud and stealing is bad and that honesty is the best policy (yes, all the old saws), punishing fraudsters when you catch them, instructing people to be vigilant about scams, and the likes.
In the book, Dan Davies cites numerous examples in which fraud became common in a particular community (whether that's a religious affinity group or a website for trading drugs), the community dutifully responded by implementing anti-fraud protections, but because these protections imposed some kind of cost (typically monetary, but potentially also an opportunity cost in terms of time and effort), some of the people in the community elected not to use the anti-fraud protections and instead take their chances without - and because most people in the community were trustworthy, this gamble paid off most of the time. There comes at a point at which the cost of protecting oneself against being defrauded exceeds the expected return.
Consider how much documentation you have to provide when applying for a mortgage. Now imagine if you had to go through that process every time you were buying or selling something through a webshop (e.g. eBay). With such a policy in place, it would be nearly impossible to defraud someone (or be defrauded) via this webshop: but because the process is so onerous, no one would use this website and it would go out of business, departing for competitors with less rigorous protections against fraud - which, inevitably, unavoidably means that some of the people who use the competitors' websites will get ripped off.
When a statistic isn't just a statistic
Like many, I was saddened by the news of the Texas flooding and the girls who were in the path of the engorged river. Natural disasters happen, but they don't always victimize school aged girls at a summer retreat. Yet I mentally filed the disaster in the way I do most disasters: the optimal quantity of flooding deaths is not zero, the odds of something bad happening to somebody somewhere is quite high, children need to do things in the outdoors even if there is some risk. And this framing, while dispassionate, isn't incorrect.
Yesterday, one of the bodies was discovered and identified. She wasn't some no-name in a far-flung state. Her family lives three streets over from mine. Her brother and my oldest daughter were in the same class last year. These are neighbors, and in our close-knit community, something akin to extended family. Suddenly, this feels personal.
A number of years ago, I was teaching my oldest to ride a bike. She was a natural, balancing and peddling within minutes of first riding. Within an hour she was shifting gears, accelerating and decelerating, making turns with adroitness. After several hours of practice in a parking lot I decided she was ready for the hilly streets near our house. Unfortunately, there was one thing I had forgotten to teach her in the flat safety of the parking lot: how to brake. She went down the hill outside our house, increasing in speed and with no ability to stop herself. Finally, she hit the curb and somersaulted into the grass of a yard. Despite the relatively soft landing she was scraped and bleeding over most of her body.
So many things could have gone wrong. She could have hit a car. She could have landed in the street and been flayed by the asphalt.
Life is fragile and can be snuffed out at any moment. The day she crashed her bike I hugged her as tightly as her scrapes would allow. Not all parents are so lucky.
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