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Notes -
Let's start with something juicy
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvp8glg97393o
Couple of starting points - it won't help Trump, chances of uncovering smoking guns that with tank Dems in the eventual records are slim to none. Zero chance she will be stripped of citizenship or her alleged brother deported (cue Alabama joke here). It is not escalation - the escalation was the Trump trial, but as retaliation is quite weak. If democrats obtain trifecta - I wonder what type of further escalation they will figure out.
Personally I find her the most dislikable among the squad, so I won't say I am sad.
I think there is a narrow path that leads to at least a conviction for perjury -- she was actually 18 at the point her father immigrated and the search turns up solid proof of it. In that case, she's have been obligated to apply for citizenship on her own and would have been perjuring herself on various official documents in the decades since.
Despite the chud dreams, I think denaturalization is not likely even in this scenario. But a charge for perjury or some other falsification-of-documents offense is advantageous for the DOJ: easy to try and prove, makes their point.
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Ilhan Omar is my congressional representative and you can inject this news into my veins. Ilhan Omar is essentially immune to electoral challenges despite being one of the most embarrassing politicians in the United States of America. This district will never in a billion years elect a Republican, of course, but she manages to survive even quite strong primary pressure despite her only congressional accomplishments in nearly a decade consisting pretty much entirely of some popular tweets. I've read that she has managed to make herself the nexus of a fairly robust patronage (i.e. grift) network which would fall apart if she left office, this seems as good an explanation as any.
Anyway, the only realistic way she ever leaves office is an actual legal issue that either finally convinces enough Minnesota Democratic Primary voters to drop their loyalty to her, or which makes her ineligible to serve. I'm hoping pretty desperately this investigation finds something. A liberal Washington DC district judge would have needed to sign off on this, so there's obviously some smoke.
Realistically, though I think you're right, it'll probably have approximately the same political impact as the Mar-a-lago raid.
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In what respect? I don't expect charging Ilhan Omar to give Trump a poll boost or his agenda codified by Congress. But it's generally prima facie good to fight. Ilhan Omar is nationally-known, generally disliked, and a bad face for Democrats. Unless Trump way oversteps or overcharges this is a political fight he can win and it will be good for him to win it.
It's been years now but I remember discussing Ilhan Omar here and with others here. The idea that she married her brother and committed immigration fraud was treated as a laughable conspiracy only Fox News-addled partisans would treat as anything more than a joke. Now?
Elsewhere, maybe. I'm pretty sure there were plenty of people here who took the idea seriously, or at least did not consider it laughable.
True though it does seem like the overton window is getting a bit closer to the Motte's overton window in the time since.
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So, did she marry her brother to bring him to the United States? It seems very plausible and I'm sure similar things happened all the time prior to 2025. At the same time, conspiracy theories about the personal lives of prominent individuals usually turn out to be fake. I'll confess to wanting to believe, which means extra caution is probably warranted.
In other news Talarico (as per my prediction) has turned up seemingly no worse for wear after a 12 day absence. But... what happened? It's a very strange absence and the official explanation (flu) should be easy to verify if he was receiving medical treatment. IIRC, a right-wing influencer on Twitter claimed to have audio from an employee at a mental health treatment facility in Ohio where Talarico supposedly was being treated after having a mental breakdown. The facility came out today with an official denial. I trust both these accounts very little.
These type of stories almost always turn out to be nothingburgers, but they are definitely fun to think about.
I don't think she married her brother. But her domestic situation was, shall we say, flexible enough to raise some eyebrows. I think it's entirely possible she did an immigration scam marriage for a clan member/related to family guy who wanted to leave the UK for the US and couldn't get in legally/didn't want to wait and go through the long, boring process of application normally.
Just tribal things. She's a legal citizen, she hasn't a civil legal marriage, here's someone from the family/otherwise plugged in to the favour network who needs help, why not? She's already relying heavily on cultural backing and support to be voted into office, now suddenly she is going to get religion and go "oh no I cannot go along with the expectations of my culture, I must adhere to the law of the foreigners"?
The Irish in the US have done enough "oops I mistakenly over stayed my tourist visa - for thirty years" fudging of immigration law that I'm not saying "ethnicity X is all like this", but we're also clannish and favour network enough for me to recognise the pattern.
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The most parsimonious explanation for Talarico to me seems similar to Biden's campaigns (before it all blew up): you're a Democratic campaign manager, and your candidate turns out to be kind of bad at campaigning. You know the media will essentially do your campaigning for you, and this guy is hurting your internals compared to Generic Democrat every time the public sees his face. So what do you do? Shove the guy in a basement, use the time to coach him like mad, and try to get to Election Day with voters thinking about negatives on Republicans rather than about your guy in particular. Which makes sense given how Talarico was selected ("fuck, we can't run Crockett, what white guys do we have left?"), but I suppose we'll see over the next couple weeks whether the campaign keeps him on ice or tries to get him back out there.
I don't know if Talarico is that bad at campaigning. Mostly I think his problem is (apart from the religion angle which we don't need to go into here) that he (like Harris) opened his big yap and spouted forth all the progressive talking points, back in the day before "Oh Woke 1 was so crazy, wasn't it, ha ha!" was the new paradigm.
So now he's having to backpedal like a trick unicylist in the circus and it's not going too well*. Maybe sticking him in a basement for two weeks and coaching the heck out of him is the answer, but frankly Paxton is so awful that all Talarico reasonably should need to do is show up on the campaign trail, wave and smile, and beat the guy. If he needs more coaching than that, then the problem is bad.
*Then on trans girls/women in sports: "there are things more important than fairness in sports" Now: "fairness in sports requires me to say biological males should not be on female teams". Then on gender/sex: "there are six sexes not two" Now: "I admit there are only two sexes".
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That makes sense.
But it feels like the Democrats missed an opportunity here.
I mean there are TONS of libtarded white guys would who love to be a Senator for Texas. We're talking boy band levels of female adulation here. How come they found this weird heretical, vegetarian, self-loathing, possibly gay guy?
Can't they just find a normal white dude who doesn't post shit about white people being a virus? It's not that hard.
Kinda of like how the Republicans are running Michelle Tafoya in Minnesota or Susan Collins in Maine. You find the best candidate you can for the race you have. There are lots of normal guys who would beat Paxton and would tow the party line once they are in office.
Talarico isn't being the Talafreako allegations. Only way he wins is a big blue wave.
"Damn it, there are still holdouts among the voters who are Bible-bashing redneck churchgoers. How do we peel them away from the Republicans? We need a Christian of our own. Where the heck do we get one?" Enter Talarico. "Wow, he's a Presbyterian seminarian! That's, like, double or even triple Christian! Woo-hoo, we're saved! (though of course not in any sectarian denominational religious sense, that would involve the concept of sin and the only sins are racism, sexism, transphobia and climate denialism, all of which we are free from)".
I don't think he's gay, by comparison he makes Pete Buttigieg look like a Folsom Street float participant in that area. I think he's just plastic. And of course they needed someone who would be soundly on board with all the liberal agenda so they couldn't get a genuinely theologically conservative/orthodox Christian guy who might, you know, say that sin was real or even worse stuff. So Talarico it was, who was white cis het male enough to be acceptable, but not offensively so.
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The problem is finding one of those people who a. wants to be a Democrat and b. can slide through the treacherous reefs of Identity Politics Primary Season.
Yeah, I’d expect especially the latter is a rough point. There’s a million Blue Dog Democrats in Texas, usually the reverse of the Thrown In the Pit on the right on something moderate-left on abortion or trans stuff… but there’s no way they’d make it through a primary without getting quisenarted.
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12 days off with the flu is a long time, but not an insanely long time. So far the only evidence I've seen of the Ohio loony bin theory is
A private plane flew from Austin to Ohio and back, and
Someone called the facility with a fake code, and was told the person they were trying to reach was not there and so must have been discharged.
It also doesn't inspire confidence that the supposed, "More recordings from the Lindner Hope Center about to drop in the morning" still haven't dropped. Seems like a more effective line of attack would be to speculate about what * ahem * other infectious diseases he might have contracted on the campaign trail.
They also first tried to get it in the Daily Mail and TheBlaze which should really be quite telling on its own if even some of the lowest evidentary standards imaginable tabloids aren't willing to touch it.
How low quality must your "evidence" be for the daily mail legal team to reject it as too risky of libel?
But it's really important to note here that among the influencer right truth does not matter. It simply does not. They do not give a rat's ass if the story is real, they just want to put Talarico's name next to "mental health crisis". They are the demons from Frieren, words to the influencer right are merely a tool to trick with.
Sometimes if you catch the demons among their group, you'll find they even admit to it.
First Time?
From The Washington Post; Harry Reid lied about Mitt Romney’s taxes. He’s still not sorry.
If both the wokes and MAGA converged on using minors as suicide bombers to attack the other side, that would not make it okay to do so simply because the other side does it.
Someone who would willfully lie to the public merely to prevent a Romney presidency is clearly a piece of shit. That does not mean that Trump is not also a piece of shit for lying about Obama's place of birth.
Despite what the culture war feels like, we are not actually in the middle of a civil war where the left wants to string up all the SUV drivers and the right wants to string up all the LGBT* folks. Even if Trump had a plan to seize power on Jan 6, trying to prevent his election through lies would backfire and further erode civil norms.
Scott has made this point better than I ever could.
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How do they have lower evidentiary standards than the average media outlet? All I know from the Blaze is their commentary channels, so evaluating evidence doesn't enter the question, but the Daily Mail in particular is definitely one of the world's top performers on this matter, and anyone who says otherwise can only do so because of blinding tribal hatred.
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I talk a lot of crap about the other side (and sometimes MKC when I think he's being a dip), but the reason I feel justified in doing so is a willingness to call fair strikes.
MKC is completely right here. There is a large swath of that group that is just utterly truth-indifferent. They'll say, boost, retweet, any insane shit as long as it gets engagement and clicks and ElonBucks. Candace Owens is the poster child here.
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I think the most likely explanation is that he had a mental health crisis and was admitted to a psychiatric facility. This would explain the lack of access, flu and other explanations would not preclude statements (even if he looked like ass). Even if he was in jail someone would leak it and someone else would be accommodating. Psych stay is strict.
He could have had a really bad medical event theoretically but it's hard to imagine what.
The other two explanations I heard was that it was some sort of 4D chess bait the Republicans thing, or he was secretly flying around doing fundraising (which, why would that stop updates?).
Weird all around.
The denial from the rumored place could be revealing depending on the phrasing, do you have it? I haven't seen it.
Apparently he's a Type 1 diabetic, so he could have had a really bad health issue with that (e.g. possibly ketoacidosis). EDIT: Type 1s need to keep rigid blood sugar and insulin level control and being on the campaign trail would play merry hob with that. I can't see that having him out of circulation for two weeks, though, unless it was something like he got a bad case of flu which would be more complicated with his diabetes. And again, no reason not to report on his health in that case.
Yeah, hypothetically could keep him out of it for a long time but really would be weird.
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When Trump had the rona they insisted on putting him on live tv right away. Part of a politician's job is to show up so the fact he didn't even tweet out a video or something is very sus in my imo.
yeah absolutely the whole thing stinks
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Source
Note, the denial doesn't say he didn't go there, or wasn't evaluated there, just that he didn't get treatment there. It's possible he went and they evaluated him and told him that he doesn't need treatment he just needs to take a week or two of rest and that's what he did.
This seems like a fancy pants kinda place so their risk tolerance and procedures may be different but usually once you've seen someone (and evaluation and recommendations would likely be considered treatment for this purposes) you can't comment at all.
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"We evaluated him and he received treatment at a legally different subsidiary organization in the same building" is the kind of thing I half expect whenever I read the news.
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I never got a satisfactory account of why Hillary collapsed with a seizure on 9/11 at the height of the 2016 campaign. The official story was pneumonia, carefully elaborated as the definitely non-contagious pneumonia when her method of showing face was a quick public appearance with kids. It was a screaming cover-up. And yet what was there to cover up? Ten years later Hillary seems fine.
Actually, in the same vein, it's also bizarre that Biden was diagnosed with cancer immediately after leaving office, but definitely not while he was in office. I guess in this case it's spread to his bones (quite painful) and they believe he will die with it, so it's not quite the same disappearing flu.
At the time, she was very concerned with projecting a tough guy image because of questions over her age, stamina, ability to deal with complex situations if woken at 2 in the morning in the White House etc. so she and her campaign were paranoid about any suggestions of "she has a health condition that will affect her ability to function". Hence the "no! she did not faint, it was only a stumble! and she didn't even stumble!" reactions and fierce denials of her catching so much as a cold. Hot sauce! Kills all known germs!
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I reckon she was also recorded coughing up some sort of suspicious green phlegm.
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Yeah I remember that too. It was weird.
But I have to think the stress of flying around the country, keeping weird hours, meeting hundreds of people, giving speeches, being attacked in the media, etc... would probably make most people break down physically and emotionally. For Hillary, her problem was that she never built up her chops in the minor leagues. She was never a super extrovert like Bill, so the crowds stole her energy instead of giving her energy. Most people like her would have gotten weeded out in single A-ball before they even had a chance to blow up in the Big Leagues.
On the other hand, Trump is perhaps the most elite person we've ever seen (certainly at his age) at being able to thrive in chaos. All the 80 year olds I know tire very easily despite having minimal responsibilities.
We often don't understand what makes politicians special. We're disappointed that they are usually midwits, but the good ones are elite in other ways. Simply being able to keep it all together is impressive.
I'm fairly sure that politicians and their staffers are coping with the high energy demands and stress with prescription pills. I think a lot of weird incidents by politicians in public can be explained by this. When you're absolutely fucking exhausted but staying on your feet and performing with stimulants, sometimes the exhaustion can suddenly win and you go down like a puppet that had its strings cut. Literally or metaphorically.
Even ignoring the whole prescription stimulants angle, I’m surprised this kind of thing doesn’t happen more often given:
I have had a little taste of this due to due to extensive travel for work last year. Consecutive days of poor sleep is a recipe for strange and sudden health issues.
They can get takeout at any of the many national chains and get something pretty consistent and okay. Home cooked is out of the question though.
Retail employees at a busy place get more face to face exposure to random people than a politician. Sure they don't shake hands all the time but hand sanitizer exists and the biggest risk is airborne illness.
Sleep deprivation and stress definitely is true, though idk how much that actually happens on the campaign trail. I guess it really depends on how well the politician can catch naps while on the tour bus.
This is supposedly part of Trump's secret. In terms of food safety, McDonald's is going to be much better than a random diner.
Ironically, eating vegetables is much more likely to make you ill in the short term.
Yeah, it's easy to laugh at his common/pedestrian tastes, but it's (1) convenient (2) quick and easy to get practically any time or any place (3) stick to burger, fries, Coke, you know what you're getting, you know what you like and you will eat it (4) can be eaten on the go or while in a car etc.
A constant diet of fast food? No. But "need something fast on the campaign trail where we don't have time to sit down for a proper meal"? A lot better and more reliable than "is there a restaurant or diner up the road we can get something and get out in forty minutes?"
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Yeah food safety is very unintuitive. You're much more likely to get sick from eating salad than from sushi
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Here's what JFK was on according to ChatGPT. This is Michael Jackson level pharmacological assistance.
I still want to know what the Biden cocktail was.
I will say this. Medical ethnics are actually pretty good in that we're not getting tons of leaks about the drugs politicians are taking.
Placenta?
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I mean I have personal knowledge of a few politicians and it is usually exactly what you'd expect - people using cocaine because of course. Sometimes Adderall.
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Grandiose narcissism apparently offers some sort of 'shield' to keep external stressors from being internalized.
Sociopathy is probably more extreme than that, in both 'positive' and negative ways.
Yeah, it's likely adaptive in some ways. If you're building a society, the correct amount of dark triad types in the gene pool is > 0.
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