domain:web.law.duke.edu
Hadad
22hr ago
Chemicals they randomly encounter in the modern environment, chemicals they intentionally put in their body, social expectations shifting, economic incentives shifting, the (short term) opportunity cost of kids, the increase in immigration rates, the advent of social media, increasing concentration of people in urban areas, and yeah, the fact that women are now solely responsible for choosing their mates and there are zero restrictions left on their decision process... so they decide to not decide.
A lot of these same pressures show up in subcultures that still manage a superior TFR, though. What changes is how empowered the women in them are. Or do you see something else?
ABigGuy4U
22hr ago
The Iranian people were always pretty secular. They never had a grassroots Wahhabist movement like the Arab states did. It’s like the Soviet ‘20s where the state is ideological but the people are mostly indifferent.
faceh
22hr ago
Yeah, sending the bombers, training the pilots, providing support services and maintenance and okaying their use, but denying any role in the outcome because "well WE didn't fly the planes" is patently silly.
If there are two guys having a shootout and you go over to one of them, hand him a gun, hand him the bullets, help him load the magazine, give him a few tips on marksmanship, and point out where the other guy is hiding, the other guy could pretty rightfully consider you an enemy combatant at that point.
But I dunno how many layers of obsfuscation are required before it becomes a wash.
"We sold the bombers and training to this other country, who then lent them to the belligerent country, and it just so happened that this other country has access to our satellite network to help with targeting, but we didn't tell 'em to do anything with that" is probably the furthest you can get without being obviously culpable.
And that's only because the intermediary country does have the option to just not do the thing you're hoping they do.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
22hr ago
Gentiles are not at war with Jews. Neither are a nation.
NB: while I'm pretty sure you meant that Jews aren't a country, Jews do fit the primary definition of "nation" pretty well.
(Obviously, Gentiles do not.)
DESPITE... HR putting their thumbs, hands, arms, bodies on the scale for blacks—due to regression to the mean and affirmative action in undergraduate admissions—even holding undergraduate alma mater constant, the average black bachelor's degree graduate is lower in cognitive ability and is of a less rigorous major (including more likely to have blexited into an easier major over the course of his or her undergraduate career). Arcidiacono, one of the expert witnesses in the Harvard case, has a paper or two on this.
faceh
22hr ago
My 'deep dive' into the question shows that it is multifactor, although there's some overlap/common causes behind certain factors.
Like, its almost ridiculous how many disparate pressures appear to make women less prone to producing kids (that's a slightly unfair way to put it, but it captures the problem, I think).
Chemicals they randomly encounter in the modern environment, chemicals they intentionally put in their body, social expectations shifting, economic incentives shifting, the (short term) opportunity cost of kids, the increase in immigration rates, the advent of social media, increasing concentration of people in urban areas, and yeah, the fact that women are now solely responsible for choosing their mates and there are zero restrictions left on their decision process... so they decide to not decide.
I don't think all of these factors are downstream of female liberation.
And many of these pressures are only possible thanks to technological developments of the last century. Which is also true of female liberation itself.
As I put it:
Please guys, I said right at the outset that its multifactor and I'm really uncertain about the major causes! I'm just proposing the policies I think most directly target the issue at hand. I really wish I had better things to do with my time than think about this at length and type long screeds to the internet. Better things like raising kids! That'd be really nice! BUT APPARENTLY I HAVE TO SOLVE ALL THE REST OF THIS to bring my chances up.
Tree
22hr ago
Huh, okay, looks like childhood leukemia really took a beating these last decades. Yay science.
Still, most docs spend their time talking to old people and recommending negative EV surgeries.
I may have been a tad harsh. Unlike farmers, who went from useful to parasitic, doctors improved over time. They used to kill people, drink their blood and feed on their suffering, now some of them occasionally manage to help humans.
Its interesting how the past approximately 10 years of diplomacy in that arena has led to this being possible.
There was some Salami-slicing going on during Trump 1 thanks to the Abraham accords, a number of major Arab countries brought into the Western orbit and shown the benefits of being onside and chilling out about Israel. I have my misgivings about their reliability as 'allies' (something something scorpion and frog) but clearly they have the ability to sit on their hands when told to.
Then Russia got itself entangled in a conflict that keeps it from offering much in the way of support/deterrence.
Then Syria's government fell.
Probably a few other things I'm forgetting, but it all ultimately left Iran with no major buddies to lean on (China, I suppose) and thus the immediate consequences of going it 'alone' against its western adversaries.
Which is what made it safe enough for Israel to pulverize their defense systems from several angles.
Which made it safe enough for the U.S. to commit a huge portion of its strategic stealth bombers to the operation with assurances they'd all make it back, and presuming they had the firepower needed to do the job, could expect to actually cripple Iran this time.
I dunno how far in advance this stuff was planned and anticipated but I think this pretty much answers the "why didn't we do this 40/30/10 years ago" question. Too many uncontrolled variables, much higher risk.
Nothing's ever over. If I were Iran and I had some breathing room I'd probably be offering China near Carte-Blanche to give me some nuke tech. That strategy doesn't usually work in, say, Civilization VI but hey, the U.S. is vastly far ahead on the Science Victory, Cultural Victory, and Space Race Victory tracks, so options for both me and China are limited.
I'd vaguely fear Iran deciding to go full 'blaze of glory' mode and activate any and all contingencies and proxy parties it has abroad and just fire off 90% of its remaining missile stockpiles into Israel and daring the U.S. to put boots on the ground again.
But I don't see that as being the rational response and even if they don't come to the bargaining table, they're probably better off waiting to see if any other conflagration points pop off that might distract U.S. attention.
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
23hr ago
There's an obvious difference between tapdancing on a blurry line and flagrantly, obviously and unambiguously running hundreds of meters on the other side of the line, which is what sending the bombers would be doing.
Hadad
23hr ago
Any argument based on "TFR is going down, which clearly shows that X is the cause" is trivially defeated by the fact that ever country has this same outcome regardless of the cultural starting point.
The starting point may differ, but do those countries share any cultural drift? For instance, is there any country that has a lowering TFR over a span of time where women's education and liberty are reduced? I think there's a strong argument that globally, TFR is falling anywhere where women are getting more empowered. The degree and rate of empowerment might differ, of course, but as far as I can tell the root cause everywhere is women in higher education and the workforce.
Hadad
23hr ago
I think everyone is motivated to some extent by their identity and environment, but I don't think Ignatiev's evil is motivated by his Jewish identity. He's embraced globohomo, not Jewish Supremacy, far as I can tell -- but I don't know the man outside of this quote everyone's been debating, so if you have something else condemning him, by all means share. It wouldn't be hard to persuade me against him, I think he's obviously a piece of shit.
And unlike you, I would call him evil.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
23hr ago
Hadad
23hr ago
This is the crux of our disagreement. I just think it’s manifestly untrue that white people are “systemically and explicitly oppressed” in any country on earth.
Our perspectives have such a vast gulf between them that I don't think there's any point in conversing on the topic, then. You think it manifestly untrue, I think it manifestly true -- I don't even know how to get across the countless ways whites are systemically pushed down if you don't see them all around. College admissions? Hiring discrimination? Grooming gangs? Massive, lopsided tax disparities, whites having their wealth stolen to fund largesse for groups hostile to them? Suppressed birth rates, combined with the deliberate importing of the third world?
Whites are at war. I don't like how SS talks, but he's not wrong there. And he's not wrong that a disproportionate amount of Jews are contributing to it.
FistfullOfCrows
23hr ago
No one has ever disputed some jews were in some camps. As with the rona, the more they censor the discussion of the subject and related accepted narratives, the more I am inclined to disbelieve them.
jkf
23hr ago
In order to be logical, the arguments must hold up when replacing words, such as "immigrant" by "native", and they do not.
This lemma is not sound -- governments exist to protect the interests of their citizenry; no such obligation exists for people in other countries.
AFAICT the rest of your points rest on this assumption -- which is certainly something you can argue is a good idea a la Caplan, but is ultimately a moral/emotional argument -- so you don't get to privilege your own moral intuition over that of others by claiming to be using 'logic'.
EDIT: i should read more carefully and post not as late at night.
You don't remember the congressional baseball match shootout? Just 8 yrs ago?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_baseball_shooting
Perp was an abusive asshole if you read about his background, strongly political but not a schizo.
The only reason it wasn't a mass murder is luck and maybe the perp not being that great a shot?
Gillitrut
Reading from the golden book under bright red stars
23hr ago
Dean
Flairless
23hr ago
...until you get outside of the cities with the infrastructure to support a constant surveillance system. Which is to say, most of any given country, including China.
Smart city technologies are indeed a significant counter-insurgency technology. They are not, however, the end-all-be-all, particularly if you have to fight your way into a country to install your own. 'I won't have this problem if I set up a nation-wide panopticon' still requires you to set up a nation-wide panopticon, and those are expensive even without active local and regional resistance, let alone global support flows from cyber attacks / satellite communication support / sanctuary and safezone logistics / etc.
No_one
23hr ago
Warheads on missiles are removable. All they'd need to do to launch a nuke is replace the warhead in one of their missiles with a nuclear one.
They know that Israel has invested a ton in missile defense and would probably gamble on being able to shoot down a lone surviving ballistic missile or two.
Israeli ABM consistently fails to intercept fast missiles that evade. It's simply too hard a problem. You need to track them exactly and guide interceptors, which have guidance issues bc of aerodynamic heating onto the incoming stuff.
They can intercept ballistic missiles all right, but not the more modern, faster ones that glide ..
Yeah.
Any argument based on "TFR is going down, which clearly shows that X is the cause" is trivially defeated by the fact that every country has this same outcome regardless of the cultural starting point.
Its almost legitimately bad faith to deploy that argument.
No_one
23hr ago
Total informational blackout, facial ID systems and military drones are going to make occupations much less painful. If you can conduct head counts, track every single person with with cameras or transponders and run AIs to spot suspicious activity, anomalous food use or insurgent activity, war of conquest gets a lot easier.
Also, the age of hobbyist level drones being militarily useful against China or Chinese friendly states ends 5 years from now, at worst.
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
23hr ago
The notion I hide my power level is absurd. I'm very open that I view the dynamic between Jews and White Gentiles to be a very profound long-standing cultural and political conflict.
You don't hide that. You hide your final solution. You talk and talk about how "Jews are a threat." Okay, what should we do about this threat? (SS posts more random stuff about how some Jew did something, see how threatening they are, and look! Israel!) How do you want to acknowledge and engage this threat?
I don't think the USG wants to kill all the Iranians even though the USG considers them to be a threat.
Gentiles are not at war with Jews. Neither are a nation. If by analogy you think we should be bombing the Jews' infrastructure to deprive them of offensive capabilities, so to speak, how would you propose to do that?
I wouldn't even say what Ignatiev says about Jews. I don't call for the end of Jewish identity but the renaissance of a White identity.
Cool, I am a white person with Russian, German Jewish, Irish, Scottish, English, and Norwegian ancestry and (according to DNA testing, much to my surprise) about 20% random North African, Southwest Asian, and Turkish admixture. How should I identify? Am I Jew because of my Jew blood, even though my entire family is physically and culturally WASP? Do I get to count as white? Which side should I take in the wars to come?
faceh
23hr ago
Kinda has to be, if every single country involved in manufacturing any bullet used to fire at your troops is now at war with you, things would escalate very rapidly.
All the more so in the current age of globalized industry.
That said, yeah, if your country is selling fully manufactured high end weaponry to another country with the basic knowledge that its going to be used in an extant conflict, you're clearly tapdancing on a somewhat blurry line.
Selling gasoline to a belligerent country is at least plausibly deniable, since it has civilian uses.
BBC has a satellite photo, showing six entrance points at Fordow. I say "entrance points" rather than "craters", because you won't see the true extent of the damage from above ground.
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