domain:lesswrong.com
2D3D
3d ago
Much of the REE debate is centered on critical dependencies that have turned out to be more difficult to replace or domestically produce than previously anticipated. The big issue I repeat is that rare earth dependency is not actually that sophisticated a tool for China to have deployed because most of their demand ends up being internal and the dollar value of said exports is minimal, so their more potent tools for trade war aren't even felt by governments yet. If you think REE is bad wait till lipo battery, semiconductor precursor and active pharmaceutical restrictions kick in. Too much intermediate materials on unfinished and finished states are reliant on China and the logistical hyper efficiency there is the leveraged advantage, which doesn't disappear just because USA isnt buying it anymore.
Current technological bottlenecks for the USA are bad but the flywheel effect of domestic AI clusters paired with mature industrial ecosystems could be even more critical in tilting a permanent advantage to China. You can build a gigafactory and a data cluster in USA, but if you dont have the supporting ecosystem of toolmakers and logistics ERP in place then you're losing out geometrically if not exonentially with every development cycle because stacking advantages are contingent on a kature ecosystem not new toys.
pbmonster
3d ago
But full autarky is (and never was) the goal of subsidies. Most countries spend billions on agriculture, and still end up importing a very large percentage of the food consumed during peace time. And that's ok, what matters is having the people, the knowledge and the supply chains set up just in case. Because scaling up and retooling is so much easier than building from scratch, and having the civilian consumer market collapse is a far smaller problem than having your military supply constrained.
So, you don't actually want to mimic the world economy on chips, batteries and REE. Any single type of small brushless motor is enough. Any single type of microcontroller - several generations behind state of the art FAB - is enough. Any type of niche battery format is enough. The rest can be scaled and retooled when necessary.
self_made_human
amaratvaṃ prāpnuhi, athavā yatamāno mṛtyum āpnuhi
3d ago
I've heard that one, it just didn't speak to me. I look at the phenomenon of K-pop, including this movie, and consider its mass-popularity strong evidence of alien invasion.
That being said, there is a song named Golden that I love. Or rather, this remix that throws in some Tame Impala:
self_made_human
amaratvaṃ prāpnuhi, athavā yatamāno mṛtyum āpnuhi
3d ago
I genuinely expect less sloppy use of terminology from you.
Firstly, I think it's clear that this is a values difference, or at least weighting different values differently. I am not categorically against potentially trading a bit of epistemic clarity for more mundane wellbeing. Mormonism simply asks too much of the former. That does not make this an "emotional argument".
Their tribe, their identity, their mode of being and living works, by an objective, scientific measure, indeed according to the only measures by which a civilization should be judged.
We're not living in the Expanse, the Mormons are a small clade that's barely been around for a hundred and fifty years, they're not the rulers of the stars. It is far from clear how long their ability to maintain their community and way of life will hold. Finally, what's objective about it? In the strict sense? Do you seriously think that GDP per capita, indexes of mental health and TFR are such robust metrics that they overshadow everything else? Do you not care about anything else?
Imagine a very benevolent alien parasite. If you accept it, it will perfectly manage your life to maximize your health, social success, and contribution to a harmonious society. Your measurable outputs, your "fruits," will be spectacular. You will be happy and productive. The only catch is that you, the conscious entity reading this now, will be gone. The parasite will be piloting your body, living a life that is, by all objective measures, better than the one you are living now. Few of us would take that deal. We seem to value something like authenticity or self-sovereignty, even at the cost of being less "objectively" successful. For me, deliberately adopting a belief system I consider false, even for its wonderful benefits, feels too much like accepting the parasite.
Finally, you're on the AGI hype/doom train. It would confound me beyond belief if the Mormon memeplex was the dominant one even in the near future. That's really unlikely, to say the least. In other words, a choice like that is to tell myself I have compromised my values, and for what? Something I can get anyway?
Celestial-body-NOS
We are all human beans. Together, we will rice.
3d ago
I feel like a much better target are the hordes of laptop-class, bullshit email jobs these giant companies seem to employ in droves. [...] I have to imagine Starbucks has hordes of these silly positions whose jobs consist largely of sending emails and having Zoom meetings that have little to no effect on the overall functioning of any individual coffee stand.
Probably why that video got such a backslash....
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
3d ago
Technically undefined, I think? Because it would be dividing by zero to determine how much more someone is producing than that worker.
Celestial-body-NOS
We are all human beans. Together, we will rice.
3d ago
The quoted statement rests on a premise that is not true; Mr Exotic is not capable of causing a man to be attracted to men, who was not previously thus.
somethingsomething
3d ago
Yeah mark this as a point for "Gavin can govern" for me (hey thats kinda catchy, maybe they should use that). When Joe Rogan says he ruined CA, I kinda feel like to me it seems much more like these crazy people with crazy veto power that I can't imagine coordinating with, but maybe that's just my naivete. Or maybe Gavin developed some kind of backbone relatively recently. Idk but this seems like more of a real-world accomplishment than anyone else on the Democrat side bench has managed.
This is the most positive report in the series that I can recall. At least from the California YIMBY perspective. How would you rate it on a scale of Worse Than Nothing to Thank God, I Can Finally Put This Revolver Down?
Every compromise, every amendment, every watering-down was necessary to get this across the finish line.
Ah, so it sounds like it is somewhere between Not Great But Progress... to Oops, I Guess This Revolver Thing Does Work After All. I wonder how it goes from here. Domino effect that has broken the camel's back, or a doubling down from opposing interests? Congratulations!
TowardsPanna
3d ago
but if it turns out chips and magnets really are only manufacturable in certain locations and reshoring is impossible then honestly the world can turn really ugly really fast.
This is my fear and suspicion too. People blaming the current market selloff (serious instant panic from some, it looked like) on Trump's new tariff are missing the main problem in all this.
It's got WW3 potential, and I guess the US would have to act fast, before the lack of REE using products would really start to bite. I'm just not sure how far China are willing to go. Do they have the stomach for war right now? I do know they're pretty serious about the "don't lose face" business, so they're unlikely to just back down without serious concessions.
DradisPing
3d ago
I think something that we should at least try is getting the SEC to require major companies to price in a 10% chance of a strategic China shutdown into their projections for the next year.
They have risk management teams anyways. It'd be much less invasive than trying to do strategic tariffs.
It might not work, but I think it's worth a try.
DuplexFields
Ask me how the FairTax proposal works. All four Political Compass quadrants should love it.
3d ago
For the average Joe, stocks are a white elephant gift. When and how does he sell them? Does he take them to his bank? Does he have to go find a broker? How does he track the taxes on it? It’s a world he’s never seen before, knowing only paychecks and bank accounts.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
3d ago
Okay, I'm lost.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3d ago
Personally, I don't believe it's possible for one person to produce 1000x the value of another.
It is actually much worse than even @TitaniumButterfly is suggesting. There are Zero Marginal Product workers, but there are also Negative Marginal Product workers, those who actually reduce a team's aggregate output after joining (one example would be Ignatius J. Reilly).
EvanTh
3d ago
Even granting that, don't you need rare earths to produce lower-grade chips for ubiquitous drones and all sorts of other things too?
TitaniumButterfly
3d ago
Plenty of people can't produce anything, so how does that math work out?
I'm pretty sure Elon Musk and Warren Buffett produce more than 1000x the value I produce.
???
What exactly is the instantiation of value that you think Elon Musk and Warren Buffet “produce”? Scrimshaw?
I am, I suppose, an Elon fanboy in the sense that to get to Mars I would ride with Satan himself, but he doesn’t produce anything; he is at best a Schelling point around which (as @SubstantialFrivolity describes below) an engineering Old Boy’s Network rotates, but if it wasn’t Elon it would have been somebody (anybody) else, to no material detriment to the Mars project.
veqq
3d ago
the great man model
For context, 18th century enlightenment universalism focused on "socioeconomic factors" and described people as interchangeable stereotypes. Romanticism/counter-enlightenment pushed back with worship of genius (elevated by Eduard Young in 1759) and great men's ability to overcome fate. Carlyle praised hero-worship for teaching the necessary lessons of heroic leadership men need to stand up when the occasion arises to be great. While our lifetimes have seen the prior model reign again overall, in business the concept of heroic leader survived even the managerial revolution.
Bingbong
3d ago
Yeah. My daughter keeps playing it and to me it's like fine but like a portmanteau B- version of the Blackpink style of KPop.
gattsuru
3d ago
AB 1127 has passed the state legislature and is going to Newsom's desk, where he's expected to sign it
TIRM
3d ago
Indeed, but, when we try something similar, such as a lithium mine in the wasteland around Thacker Pass, Nevada, there are years of protests. Indigenous sacred land everywhere.
"It's a bop!", as the kids say. Very very radio-poppy, but I like its energy!
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