domain:infonomena.substack.com
Rov_Scam
3hr ago
- 1984 — within 2 years, according to Jane's Defence Weekly
- 1984 — 7 years, per West German intelligence
- 1992 — 3 years, per Netanyahu
- 1995 — less than 5 years, per Netanyahu
- 1996 — 4 years, per Shimon Peres
- 1998 — within 5 years, per Donald Rumsfeld
- 1999 — within 5 years, per the Israeli military
- 2001 — less than 4 years, per the Israeli Minister of Defence
- 2002 — capability on par with North Korea, per the CIA
- 2003 — by 2005, per Israeli military
- 2006 — 16 days, per US State Department
- 2009 — 6–18 months, per Ehud Barak
- 2010 — 1–3 years, per Israeli government
- 2011 — within months, per IAEA
- 2013 — by 2016, per Israeli intelligence
- 2013 — 1.9–2.2 months, per Institute for Science and International Security
- 2014 — 6 months, per Arms Control
- 2015 — 1.7 months, per Iran Watch
- 2015 — 45–87 days, per Bipartisan Policy Center
- 2015 — 3 months, per Washington Institute
Then the nuclear deal was put in place, and estimates seemed to be in agreement that the breakout time would be weeks to months with out the deal, a year with the deal. Then COVID happened and nobody cared.
- 2021 — a matter of weeks, per Antony Blinken
At this point I'm too lazy to keep checking for additional estimates, but you get the idea.
HereAndGone
3hr ago
Yeah, shooting politicians probably is politically motivated. But he could have been shooting politicians because he thinks they're lizard people controlling us all with mind rays from their lunar base. We don't know precisely what or why the guy was trying to achieve as yet, so saying nothing except some anodyne platitudes until we find the hell out what was going on is the best way to go.
thejdizzler
3hr ago
Interested to hear your thoughts on Stormlight. I don't think I'm going to like it, but I promised my friend group I would read at least the first book.
HereAndGone
3hr ago
I don't want to fight over this. But if someone can come along and presume that the shooting happened because of some Christian extremist, I'm going to answer that in the same spirit as it was posted. "Gosh, he must have been a radical anti-abortionist, he had a list and everything!"
Says who? When we get proper information, go right ahead. Right now we have bits and scraps and no clear pictures, and what little information we do have points towards the guy being a Democrat, but already some comments here are trying to spin it that "yeah well it was really all the fault of the Republicans".
Muninn
"Dick Laurent is dead."
3hr ago
Fortune's Envoy (Cyber Dreams book 3) by Plum Parrot. I started the first one after finishing Daring and I'm still way into it!
HereAndGone
4hr ago
There were pro-life Democrats in the party, until they got deliberately frozen out. There's still a sub-group of them inside the party, but they weren't the ones being invited to, for instance, Hotties for Harris bashes.
Right now, they can't make enough of Governor Walz being pro-reproductive rights and so forth.
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
4hr ago
No one is disputing that Democratic politicians are more likely than not to be pro-choice. That wasn't the boo outgroup part.
Please (I mean this sincerely) don't start playing this game again just because you're back under a new alt.
Celestial-body-NOS
Why should Man not rebel against Nature, when Nature herself is in rebellion against Justice?
4hr ago
He could have been motivated by a (real or perceived) personal or professional slight which he blamed on the individuals targeted.
Like with Charles Guiteau shooting James Garfield?
HereAndGone
4hr ago
Okay, maybe the T.S. Eliot parody was over the line.
But show me where I'm wrong that it is more likely than not that Democratic politicians are pro-choice. The bodies are barely cold by this stage so I don't want to go digging out "what did Representative A and Senator B get as scores from Planned Parenthood?" but assuming that "oh this guy must be pro-lifer because he had a list of pro-choice politicians" doesn't track when it comes to Democrats. If he had a list of Democrats, he had a list of pro-choicers, more likely than not. Correlation is not causation, isn't that the saying?
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
4hr ago
Some people think "self-defense" can only begin once you already got punched, or stabbed, or shot.
You have a very appropriate username for that. Having Han shoot first or second was a deliberate choice that Lucas famously went back on.
If a little child tells you, "When I grow up, I will kill you", when are you allowed to kill him in self-defense? When he says that? When he starts learning about guns and toxins and explosives? When he makes his first unexpected attempt on your life? When he reaches the age of criminal responsibility?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4hr ago
Genuinely asking, how is that assuming the conclusion?
If Tokyo today has tons of traffic, and a quick Google says Tokyo has on average 9 million subway riders every day, then if there were not subways/trains then those 9 million people would need to get around some other way. And if the roads are already packed as you say, there definitely isn't room for them there.
I agree your solution (just have smaller cities) is actually a significantly more effective solution to traffic than anything else.
But isn't that kind of an is/ought problem (to be honest, not sure if I've used this correctly). You say: "we ought to have small cities, this will solve congestion" and that's, true, but we actually have big cities that need solutions now, and dispersing their populations isn't going to happen.
Also you'd probably need to re-align a lot of human society and economy to stop mega-cities from leveraging economies of scale and network effects to dominate smaller cities, because that keeps happening the world over basically since agriculture was invented.
ControlsFreak
4hr ago
Affirming the consequent is quite out of fashion.
jkf
4hr ago
Signalling turns more or less all the time is probably good for this reason -- but you should not be changing lanes unless you capital-K Know that there is nobody in your path.
I'd much rather be in the habit of double-checking my 'blind' spots everytime I change lanes than be in the habit of signalling and then pulling right into the car next to me that I didn't check for if he doesn't take evasive action -- which seems like a pretty common freeway habit these days.
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
4hr ago
I’m also working through the first book in Stormlight Archive! I’m alternating between that, Hegel And The Hermetic Tradition, and a book about the basics of Freemasonry.
thejdizzler
4hr ago
So what are you reading?
Working on my annual re-read of Battle Cry of Freedom and staring the Stormlight Archive.
DelendaEst
4hr ago
I have seen 10 times more comments from the left mad that the Trump assassin missed than I have seem from leftists mad he tried in the first place. I think the only reason that guy has not be lionized is that he failed, a few inches to the right and the left would be trying to build statues of him.
thejdizzler
4hr ago
One of the more impactful books I read this decade was Amusing Ourselves to Death by Neil Postman. The books argues that our media environment, primarily TV in the time that this book was written, encourages political infantilization, rhetorical deskilling, and an obsession with appearances rather than substance of policies and candidates. Parts of this argument are undoubtedly true: Postman gives the example of the Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1858 where people stood for 7 HOURS to listen to the two politicians duke it out over the nitty-gritty policies related to slavery as an institution at that time. I couldn't see very many people today, much less your average social-media addicted normie (probably the equivalent of a rural Illinois farmer in the 1850s), paying attention to anything for 7 hours, much less grasping complex policy arguments.
But at the same time, I wonder how rose-tinted Postman's perception of political culture in the antebellum period was. I'm doing my annual re-read of Battle Cry of Freedom, and this time around it really struck me how much heavy-handed, or even blatantly-illegal shit that the pro-slavery faction of the nation in the 1850s got up to in the lead up to the Civil War. The Filibuster invasions of sovereign Central American countries were sanctioned by many politicians in the South, and the individuals responsible got away scot-free because of the bias of the jurors. The Fugitive Slave Act and related Dred Scott and other Supreme Court rulings were attempts to basically force the North to accept slavery throughout the whole country. Pro-slavery forces from Missouri tried to falsify elections in Kansas to force admission of that state as permitting slavery, despite a nearly 10:1 ratio of yeoman farmers:slaver holders in the territory. And this isn't even getting started on the morality of slavery itself. Of course the more extreme abolitionists also got up to some indefensible stuff (mainly thinking John Brown and his backers), but the majority of the insane policy prescriptions and rhetoric came from below the Mason-Dixon Line. All this is to say that basically, it seems to me that the undoubtedly superior attention spans and verbal reasoning skills in general didn't seem to do much to help policy-makers decide the slavery question. In the end force of arms had to do that.
I see a lot of parallels between the South's position in the 1850s and perhaps surprisingly the pro-immigration crowd in California/other Blue States. Of course there are perhaps more moral parallels with the extreme abolitionists, but in terms of contempt for the constitution, federal authority, and inability to understand the game theory of their opponents, the anti-ice protestors remind me a lot more of Jeff Davis and Robert Toombs than William Lloyd Garrison or Abe Lincoln. In both cases, it doesn't seem that attention span, or verbal IQ helped either side convince their opponents or find a peaceful solution to the problem.
Are there other examples that you can think of where the attention span and deep thought that Postman aspires to have helped cities/nations get through tough political challenges? Or are these tools only really useful in justifying what one already believes in a slightly more pretty way, leaving the actual battles over fundamental differences to be fought on the battlefield.
Postscript: One difference that I do think is real between today and the 1860s is the willingness of young men to actually put their lives on the line for what they believed in. Say what you will for John Brown, or Stonewall Jackson, but they were willing to die to fight against (or for) slavery. There were quite a few university professors and students in the Union Army. I don't think you would see this kind of behavior today from either side of the political divide, but especially from the left.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
4hr ago
Just because London/Tokyo/whatever have traffic doesn't mean their trains suck. Imagine how much worse it would be without trains.
That's assuming the conclusion.
I would very much like to hear your solution to how to transport large volumes of people in a relatively small area.
My solution is to not put such large volumes of people in a small area. There's no good solution to transportation once you've jammed everyone together, they all suck.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
4hr ago
It would be like saying there’s a sprawling tunnel system beneath Manhattan which America uses as their primary war room. The Pentagon isn’t even in the middle of DC, let alone under the skyscrapers of Manhattan.
No_one
4hr ago
There's some guy out there who was losing like a pound a day bc his doc gave him some combination shot of several anti-obesity drugs and ended up going almost blind and with severe nerve damage and now is suing.
Really put the scale on a firm surface and make sure you're losing it at a fast pace, not something you want to risk. How do people even get that big, food is quite expensive and not needed in excess anyway.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
5hr ago
Just because London/Tokyo/whatever have traffic doesn't mean their trains suck. Imagine how much worse it would be without trains.
That actually kind of proves my point, the cities quite literally would not work without trains, because trains can scale, unlike road capacity.
I would very much like to hear your solution to how to transport large volumes of people in a relatively small area.
As fun as our verbal sparring has been, all you've done is shoot down every possible option as "nuh uh not good enough" without ever acknowledging that once you crest ~3 million people in an area, everyone taking a personal automobile fundamentally starts falling apart due to the limits of space-time.
So I say again my friend, what's your solution?
quiet_NaN
5hr ago
If rampant sexual degeneracy ruins most young people as spouses, the remainder is about as 'free' to behave traditionally as they would be in solitary confinement.
I do not think that the ungendered version of the argument works. In high density areas (where your "sexual degeneracy" is more frequent), it does not matter if 99% of your generation do not qualify as a partner, the remaining 1% is still a decent-sized pool. If Jehova's witnesses can manage to find another JW to marry, then traditionalists should likewise be fine.
Now, I could be wrong and you could be lamenting how hard it is for 20 year old tradwives-to-be to find a virgin man who is making enough money to provide for a family, and how all the men have been "ruined" through either unmarried sex or porn.
Given traditionalist double standards, I think it is more likely that you are lamenting that there is a dearth of virgin women wanting to marry and start a family, and how all the 20 yo's want to go to college, will likely go through multiple boyfriends, perhaps suck a few cocks at parties, experiment with lesbianism or try anal sex, at which point you would consider them ruined.
As someone who himself gets laid less than I would likely have before the sexual revolution, let me say I have about zero sympathies.
All these arguments against the sexual liberation (mostly of women) could as well be made about the liberation of slaves in the US, which removed a lot of liberties previously enjoyed by the plantation owners. White families who had for generations enjoyed stable jobs as overseers were suddenly without employment. Today, a white guy can not hope to find blacks to work on his plantation for housing and basic food even if he promises not to whip or rape them. Instead, he is expected to pay them. The indignity!
I am always skeptical of claiming that we should not give one group the freedom to chose what to do with their lives because it will have downstream indirect effects which will harm other groups. (The exception is when the effects are obvious and heavily infringing that other group's freedoms. For example, legalizing anti-tank weapons would lead to a lot of people being blown up, or legalizing violent rape would unduly infringe on the liberties of the victims.)
We did not stop freeing the slaves because we were unsure on how this would affect the social order in the South or the price of tobacco. We went ahead and dealt with the indirect consequences as they appeared (badly, often).
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
5hr ago
Audrey Hale’s “manifesto” has been released. It was never more than a rambling diary. The reason its release was delayed — which was hinted at by law enforcement at the time and has since been made explicit — is that it repeatedly refers to Hale’s personal relationship (and unrequited obsession) with a local public figure.
Much simpler to just use weight categories and set them in 10mph tiers.
More options
Context Copy link