domain:freddiedeboer.substack.com
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
2m ago
Not to forget that just five years ago very few people would have considered there to be anything strange or political about a well-known American celebrity cutting an ad for a pharma company.
hydroacetylene
3m ago
Some of that is organic follow-the-leader, though. Important and influential activist posts thing, everyone else does too.
sliders1234
8m ago
The bill barely does anything to eliminate asylum.
I have repeated told you why I oppose the bill. But it summarizes to I believe the bill would increase immigration I do not want. You are fine to disagree with my logic. What is not fine is acting like I haven’t told you why I oppose it.
The bill lacks any teeth to limit immigration during a Democratic Presidency. America is also very bad at letting the legislature get a second crack at legislating. The Dems offered the GOP very little in this deal. Biden would claim victory if the bill passes, probably enforce the border during the election season, and once the election was over every loophole in the bill would be utilized by the left to flood the border again with immigrants.
I prefer to just boost Trumps chance at election which would allow us to actually fix the border.
If Dems gave us a real bill with teeth and banned the current asylum situation I would vote for the bill and give them the win, but they are not doing it.
Pigeon
coo coo
8m ago
Hong Kong is lower by a little, but the others are higher. Macau actually has a TFR of above 1...!
hydroacetylene
9m ago
There have always been popular white people, and vaguely well-known people who can be funny and charismatic sometimes rise unusually fast. The prosaic explanation is the best one, and I’m enjoying the opportunity to refer to Taylor swift as ‘Travis Kelce’s girlfriend’ with the explanation that football is more important.
Felagund
16m ago
Well, I don't think I was born a pathological misanthrope, nor am one, so…
By becoming convinced that sin is bad, actually. That we are guilty when we sin not only for the harms we inflict on others, but for the transgression against God's law, against his infinite majesty.
To quote Isaiah, “Woe is me! For I am lost; for I am a man of unclean lips, and I dwell in the midst of a people of unclean lips; for my eyes have seen the King, the LORD of hosts!”
This is not the only such passage.
Pigeon
coo coo
17m ago
Especially with the male oversupply (see: one-child policy and preference for sons), at least up till quite recently, owning a residence is considered the minimum requirement for getting a decent match in China, at least in the urban areas. It gets to the point where multiple generations might be investing in a property for a son so he can get ahead (admittedly not just in romance; also stuff like residency status and rights, but I am very far from an expert on this)
More anecdotally, I know of Chinese women who openly discuss/brag about what sort of make of car/house/whatever accessory they require before giving a man the light of day.
Not sure how the owning a house thing is doing with the property market still in freefall.
Pigeon
coo coo
23m ago
I'm pretty sure this is referencing moral foundations theory.
Felagund
23m ago
Jesus dude. This is crazy talk, even by my low expectations regarding religious thinkers.
I think this is pretty mainstream, among some (large) segments of Christianity?
It follows pretty quickly that we deserve hell if you just take sin seriously. When all sin is in some respect against God's infinite majesty, that makes sin pretty bad, even if it's something that we might ordinarily think of as minor. (I could cite some passages of scripture, but I get that you might not care.)
This makes salvation more breathtaking.
I'm here if you want to message or talk to someone.
If this is due to concern that I'm unwell, I'm not. I like to think I'm pretty well adjusted, I have friends, etc.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
30m ago
The TIPS are for my version of a liability matching portfolio. The main idea is to ensure that we have an inflation-adjusted income floor in retirement that matches current spending, so that in theory our lifestyle will not need to change for financial reasons.
In our particular case I am penciling in my retirement at 63 and wife's when I am 68 (she is younger). We'll both start drawing SS when I am 70. So I need amount A for years 63-67, amount B for years 68-69, and amount C for years 70+ (currently planned through 82). These amounts are obviously estimates but reasonably good ones, and they exclude items like college which are accounted for separately. Once these floors are established, then the majority of the rest of the portfolio will be in global stock index funds with some in Treasurys.
I have about 2/3 of this locked in already. Currently there is a gap in TIPS availability from 2035-2039 which coincides with part of my plan. The 2035s will be available next year as 10y and I will just buy them as they become available. Then for some of the other years I will fill in as money becomes available.
This strategy is not for everyone but my wife is particularly risk averse and we do not need to take any additional risks to ensure a solid retirement. My goal is to preserve our current lifestyle - I'm not trying to hit the jackpot. The overall allocation is about 33% stock, 39% TIPS, 28% T-bills at this point.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
35m ago
I minored in Linguistics and one of the introductory classes used an older edition of this book: https://www.amazon.com/Language-Files-Materials-Introduction-Linguistics/dp/0814252702
It's a pretty good place to get started and then figure out what topics interest you the most. For example, historical linguistics was the most interesting to me and it was fun to use it to make up fantasy languages that sound realistic (Because it's just a real language with some common deletions and vowel shifts.)
I have a lot of lawyers in my family, one of whom is close to me and the main part of his job is to write legal documents in clear, precise, unambiguous language, so I'm used to thinking about language and rules in a certain way (I also have a STEM background, where things have precise definitions). I've been blown away by how bad otherwise intelligent people are at writing and interpreting resolution criteria. They throw out basic principles which I would have thought were necessary for there to be any hope being able to decide these things in a consistent and predictable manner. I even explained one of the resolution disputes on Polymarket to these family members, one that was ambiguous due to a blatant self-contradiction in the resolution criteria, and they said it should definitely be resolved one way, which ended up being resolved the other way (essentially on the principle of most people wouldn't read that far into the description of the resolution criteria).
One possible solution is that you have people pay to have questions answered, and as part of that payment, they pay people to act as oracles who have good reputations. So the incentive is to decide things in a way that most closely matches what the question asker intended and also most closely matches what bettors think the question is about so that they are willing to bet on it, since this improves the market's accuracy.
John_Doe_Fletcher
anarcho-heretic, formerly DO_FLETCHING
51m ago
New Reddit has followers, it's had them for years. Following someone is approximately equivalent to Old Reddit's friend feature, though I think you can only see your own follower count or it may have a privacy toggle somewhere. If you pull up /r/friends on old reddit you'll get a feed of posts from people you've added as a friend, and since that doesn't require the other person to accept a friend request, it's functionally a follow.
naraburns
nihil supernum
52m ago
You're here, and I really wish you weren't.
This is very much the opposite of "write like everyone is reading, and you want to include them in the conversation."
Please don't post like this.
naraburns
nihil supernum
54m ago
you're either a coward or a dullard
This is not allowed. Banned for three days.
grognard
Intel Pentium III 450 / Nvidia Riva TNT2 Ultra / Corsair 128MB PC133 / ABIT BH6
58m ago
Try Gyroscopic Investing. https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/index.php
grognard
Intel Pentium III 450 / Nvidia Riva TNT2 Ultra / Corsair 128MB PC133 / ABIT BH6
59m ago
Why TIPS? Do you ladder treasuries for deep cash? SGOV/BIL holder here.
Pigeon
coo coo
1hr ago
I'm sure you could find more, but even just a brief perusal gives me examples of this from the Atlantic in an otherwise unsympathetic piece. I feel like it's pretty well known even with only a relatively passing interest in Korea.
Two examples inside that article are that of an engagement getting broken off because a downturn in a business owned to-be-groom's parents spooked the to-be-bride and her family, and a late-50s university lecturer finding out that he wouldn't meet the salary demands outlined by Korean women now.
LCEnzo
1hr ago
Anything that introduces friction for both high and low IQ is right out as friction will increase user base entropy. You ideally want a one time cost. Blind, a kind of 4chan for software engineers, works for tech, as you need a corporate email to get in. Lobste.rs deals with this problem by being invite only.
bct
1hr ago
Thanks for describing this! I've written a nix flake for deploying it - it's incomplete & rough & undocumented, but maybe it will be of use to someone: https://github.com/bct/unshittify.nix
I've added 14 nitter feeds to my instance, but most of them are failing with "Miniflux generated too many requests to this website. Please, try again later or change the application configuration.". I wonder if I need to tweak the Miniflux configuration to avoid polling all the feeds at the same time?
Tangentially, a non-obvious feature of nitter is that you can put a comma separated list of usernames in the URL, e.g. https://nitter.privacydev.net/FromKulak,TraceWoodgrains/rss. I haven't experimented to see if this helps with rate limiting.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
1hr ago
Yes that's correct, and also that we live in a boring world. Fortunately investing should be boring so that works out well. There are some occasional trainwreck posts that are entertaining, but the mods there are extremely quick on the trigger so they tend to peter out quickly.
I first started there over 20 years ago when it was much more niche and the strategies espoused were not as well known. The philosophy has probably saved/made me a few hundred thousand dollars over time versus picking my own stocks, so I have some residual good feelings.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
1hr ago
Yes, exactly. I would describe it as more esoteric in that there are many more threads with diverse topics. Also the general vibe is a bit more relaxed and personal beefs are tolerated somewhat more.
The finance board is just bogleheads.org which is pretty public at this point. I mostly stick to a few niche topics (like TIPS investing) that have dedicated posters, but there is a lot of good information there for people who are new to investing.
Let me see if I can talk around all the words you're putting in my mouth...
When you give women the option not to be a stay at home mom...most take it. When they have the option to have fewer children, most take it. Hence the reduction in family formation and lack of children. Revealed preferences.
Also, talk about a straw man. Yeeeaaaash.
Funny that you posted this just yesterday, "If you want I can make up an arbitrary position, ascribe it to you, give you hell for not defending it, and then conspicuously stop responding when you point out that you've literally never said such a thing."
You are channeling Hlynka!
raakaa
2hr ago
The best way to sow the seeds of a casual interest in linguistics is to amble through Wikipedia articles on various languages. Read their sections on phonology and grammar, and when you don’t understand something (e.g. if you’re unfamiliar with the IPA, or you don’t know what a “dative case” is), then skim the appropriate Wikipedia article. Also, reading about Proto-Indo-European is fun: it’ll teach you a bit about comparative linguistics while instilling a sense of awe that universally-spoken modern-day languages still bear the unmistakable genes of their prehistoric ancestors.
BOXX > SGOV for tax reasons, in my opinion.
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