domain:forecasting.substack.com
ActuallyATleilaxuGhola
Axolotl Tank Class of '24
22m ago
Re. mysqldump, that's what we did last time we had to do this, but I was hoping there was a less manual way. You can do automate anything with enough scripts and DevOps duct tape, but I try to take zero maintenance options whenever I can because I have to scale my meager team and hiring is rough now (because our budget is shit).
Re. the security team, the tech details matter less than the perception. They're more of a compliance team than a security team. Such is life outside of Silicon Valley, sadly.
TitaniumButterfly
25m ago
This would make a great drunken assertion but it feels kinda random in context.
ZanarkandAbesFan
37m ago
Was this meant as a reply to me or OP?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
50m ago
Mastering chaotic systems is the whole point of the game. That's what civilization is for, managing irrigation and controlling rivers is one of the oldest duties of government. We should also be working harder on controlling the weather. Weather is very complex but new AI methods are useful here, plus more sensors would be useful.
Building infrastructure to be replaceable and developing early warning systems is good but controlling the system entirely is better. Past a certain level of development, when human activity alters the whole climate system, we have to get more serious about controlling the environment rather than simply inhabiting it.
Imagine a man living in a huge mansion. His presence reshapes it slowly but surely as he builds up endless empty beer cans, bags full of garbage are overflowing. Rats and pests are building up. There are mysterious stains on the walls. And the mansion isn't so great in the first place, there are floorboards that mustn't be stood on, broken windows that let in the cold air.
He can either minimize his presence (not buy all these beer cans, eat 100% of his food so there's minimal waste, not tread where it's dangerous) or he can grow up and clear out all the garbage, renovate to fix up this place. Even though renovations are expensive, exhausting and you never know what kind of unexpected costs will emerge, it's still the right decision.
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
1hr ago
Not even close. A person's livelihood is far more important than any given celebration, let alone this one which isn't even that important.
solowingpixy
the resident car guy
2hr ago
Mania by Lionel Shriver. Her novels are fun in a way that's hard to describe.
TitaniumButterfly
2hr ago
I feel like when I was a kid we got thunderstorms all the time (various locations in California) but now it's maybe once every few years. Wonder if that's pure inaccuracy on the part of my memory or what. I miss the majesty; the sheer primal power in those storms.
anti_dan
2hr ago
No, we should, but it shouldn't include camps for children. Places like New Orleans should have buildings, they should be basically shanty-port towns for workers. Mostly single men. And they should get risk wages like high wire guys do, and probably should have a union that negotiates life insurance.
But children certainly shouldn't be living in floodplains.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
2hr ago
A flash of light and a loud bang followed by my phone announcing a thunderstorm warning happens at least several times a summer. Yeah, and no shit...
FD4280
2hr ago
Finished Sharpe’s Tiger by Bernard Cornwell. I’d love to read more historical fiction of this quality, especially set in India.
gattsuru
3hr ago
Louis McMaster Bujold is always a blast. Sometimes a little preachy in the later works, but great howdunnits. Miles, Mutants, and Microbes is a little weird of an anthology since "Labyrinth" touches on topic the topic but not as heavily on the plot points of the other two works, while Diplomatic Immunity is more
DI can stand alone or as a sequel to Falling Free, but it's an odd editing decision, even by Baen's standards.
You see that Vorkorsigan-like tones more often in fantasy -- Diana Wynne Jones is a little less high social drama but similar -- but it does seem pretty badly underserved in scifi. Maybe some of the Ciaphas Cain series, if you're into Warhammer?
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
3hr ago
Style history:
- Special Forces types started wearing them during Iraq / Afghanistan. So a lot of tactical bros started that as well. You can see this all over GunTube and CopTube.
- On the other end of the culture spectrum, "chill dude" vibes since the early 2010s have been facial hair friendly. Everything from a kind of lazy, Seth Rogan three day beard, to weird retro mustaches a la Arthur Shelby from Peaky Blinders.
The underlying reason common to both; growing a beard is a pretty good solution if you have a weak jawline. Some women don't like beards, but some do. The pool is large enough you aren't giving up much if you go for the beard. Very few women will totally overlook a particularly weak jaw line.
OliveTapenade
3hr ago
I have at least heard the idea from Aboriginal people directly, though the way they framed it to me was in terms of having 'weak genes'. That said, I do not rate the scientific literacy of the person who told me that at all, so I have no idea if it's actually true, or just an excuse one might tell oneself on seeing one's pale skin.
This reminds me, I'm finding Dungeon Slayer pretty bad so far. The worldbuilding makes no sense, the main character is pretty dumb, and the secondary characters' behavior is extremely unrealistic. Fights have mostly been interesting and cool though!
(Edited to spoiler on the side of caution and also to add:)
Still enjoying 12 Miles Below but it's slowed down a lot and frankly I don't care about the
Anyhow even though I'm mostly complaining I do appreciate the recs. 12 Miles Below has unquestionably been worth the read overall and will stick with me.
Oh hey I started a new series recently called Iron Tyrant by Seth Ring and it's a lot of fun. First few chapters are extremely unrepresentative of the rest of the series. Overall the author shows a lot of competence in the stuff he's writing about -- brutal military training of enslaved child soldiers, espionage, political intrigue, etc. -- and that makes it good. First book is called Chain of Feathers. Absolutely cannot wait for more of these to come out. Oh, but I'll say that the magic system is... idk, it's not the most interesting, but he does cool stuff with it and for a litrpg it's surprisingly light on stats and stuff. It's much, much more about the character, the setting, politics, and just general coolness than it is about the magic system.
@Muninn extra ping in case you missed the edit.
jkf
3hr ago
Should be possible to slaughter a calf in a rad suit -- the L*** helps those who help themselves, y'know?
miras_chinotto
certified low iq
3hr ago
Most places in the US do tightly regulate floodplain development. Most places like these summer camps, some of which are 100 years old, are grandfathered in so it's left to local government, communities, and operators to determine what they need to do to ensure adequate safety.
faceh
3hr ago
End of day you really can't account for every variable, or conditions that are far outside the 'expected' normal range.
Weather in particular is a chaotic system. Some days the conditions just happen to coincide to make things more severe than expected.
Remember just about a month ago a Swiss village got swept away by an avalanche. What are we to do about this risk? Engineer every mountain to be stable?
Or Volcanic eruptions. We don't HAVE an engineering solution to those!
The arguably better solution in many cases is to build the houses and infrastructure as cheaply as can reasonably be done so they can be more easily rebuilt, and spend the extra money on early warning and evacuation efforts.
The entire religion is predicated on the Messiah returning and the Temple being rebuilt on these grounds.
Would the Messiah not just remove the fallout? If anything, it'd be a pretty good indicator that it was time to rebuild, plus now there's no existing competition for the site.
And radiation actually maps pretty well to existing divine wrath, specifically the Ark of the Covenant curses from 1 Samuel.
But after they had brought it to Gath, the hand of the Lord was against the city, causing a very great panic; he struck the inhabitants of the city, both young and old, so that tumors broke out on them.
... For there was a deathly panic throughout the whole city. The hand of God was very heavy there; those who did not die were stricken with tumors, and the cry of the city went up to heaven.
AnonymousActuary
3hr ago
just wanted to say, extremely here for the anti-dog content. I love dogs, but like 5-10% of people max who own them should own them, and you should have to have a kid or be a single male (saying this somewhat sarcastically, but not completely).
This is one of my favorite blog articles on the subject: https://mattlakeman.org/2020/03/21/against-dog-ownership/
Why not set up a machine instance in one of the VPCs, ssh into it, run mysqldump against the source DB and pipe it to mysql connecting to the destination DB? The piping avoids storing it on a disk/bucket.
Why would the security team kill you for connecting to public IPs? Just make sure TLS is enabled and you're good to go. Also if both VPCs are in the same AZ/DC you're likely not going to go over the internet. You might not even go over the Internet between Google Cloud DCs.
Might need to ask an LLM for the right set of options to disable buffering and select the databases you want to clone.
OliveTapenade
3hr ago
In this case the context is also that most senators dislike that oath and took it insincerely. If you look at the recording of Thorpe swearing the oath and making a fuss, the other senators in the room were rolling their eyes. One commented, "None of us like it", and a minister afterwards called the oath "archaic and ridiculous".
Australian parliamentarians are legally required to swear an oath to the Queen (as it was at the time; it's now the King) when they take office, but it is safe to say that very few of them actually believe the oath or take it remotely seriously. This is from 2016, but over half of them support a republic (yes, this is significantly out of step with popular opinion, politicians as a class are often unrepresentative), and I think it's fair to say that on a plain reading of the oath, bearing true allegiance to his majesty and his heirs and successors would be incompatible with wanting to abolish him.
But none of them take it seriously. We are not a nation that takes oaths seriously.
(I would not single out Australia in this respect - I think the West in general has largely given up on oaths. My favourite example of this, actually, is that becoming an American citizen requires a person to explicitly renounce any other citizenship or allegiance, and yet large numbers of people become American citizens while retaining prior citizenships. Nobody cares.)
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
3hr ago
Well I just finished The Geneva convention(s). So I started with a new book "In another world with my smartphone"
The Geneva suggestion convention is a way more interesting read when you have all the cultural context of people calling things war crimes. It's a lot of fun to read and go "wow that isn't a war crime and the amount of effort it puts into this is really fun. (admittedly I was also watching an anime with a bunch of people in /r/anime and just recording the war crimes comitted by the good/bad guys (mostly the good guys) really made it a lot more fun of a read.
JarJarJedi
4hr ago
Any task that can be described as "look up the thing which I describe, possibly in vague terms, among vast array of similar things, and bring it to me" is excellent for it. Using it as a search engine that understands natural language very frequently works. I use it multiple times a day this way and it helps a lot. Same for generating simple scripts that I know exactly what needs to be done, and maybe even have an example of doing similar thing but would have to spend 15-20 minutes tweaking it to do the other thing - it can give it to me in one minute. This is an awesome tool for such cases. But nowhere near "junior programmer" or "fresh law degree graduate" as some claim. At least if I had a junior like that on my team, I'd have a talk with the manager that hired him.
@RandomRanger @faceh
The real turning point will be when insurance companies stop covering those areas. Flood insurance in the Texas gulf coast already has to be subsidized by the state government because it’s just not profitable anymore.
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