domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
Quantumfreakonomics
11m ago
Use good photos of yourself. Digging any deeper than that will make you go insane. Most people here are reasonably-high decouplers, but it hits differently when it’s your appearance and your social status and your geneline at stake.
pigeonburger
12m ago
Great advice list! Couldn't have said it better myself. Ultimately the overarching goal is communicating that you're a well-rounded and well-adjusted guy, everything you do on these apps should be done with that in mind and your advice goes a long way towards giving tips as to how to do so.
sodiummuffin
14m ago
People would rather spend time attending a safety seminar or working than reduce their lifespan and spend an equal amount of time being dead, so you can't trade off QALYs for time worked 1 for 1. Instead it's just another adjustor to quality-of-life, roughly equivalent to time spent working without being paid (the actual workers get paid, but it destroys the value they would produce doing something else). You could also compare the cost to the standard "economic value of the life" calculations derived from the premiums on risky jobs, and indeed certain safety measures require risky construction work and thus are partially paid for with the deaths and disabling of the construction workers you have implement them. Your calculation is still useful as a sanity check though, even though the actual tradeoff in time spent wouldn't be 11 minutes.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
20m ago
I've never used anything but FancyZones and HOLY SHIT it is amazing.
Although I just jumped to Windows 11 and it's FancyZones-lite native feature is pretty good too.
faceh
30m ago
Guess that depends on whether you consider plagues or pandemics in that category.
And I'd specifically point out that WWII took a long time to kill that many people, whereas most natural disasters happen over minutes, to hours, to days at most.
In 2004, an earthquake/Tsunami combo killed like 225,000 people in a day.
So on a simple deaths/hour calculation, I'm not certain your point would hold.
A single hurricane allegedly releases almost as much energy as the entirety of humanity's nuclear bomb stockpile. And there's 5-15 of those per year.
faceh
39m ago
Weather is very complex but new AI methods are useful here, plus more sensors would be useful.
That's the, I dunno, "scary" part.
Quelling weather in one place might make it harsher somewhere else. How do you dissipate the energy of this system without it bursting out all at once somewhere?
That said, I would be all for engineer the paths of major hurricanes so they don't intersect with land at all. Simple enough approach.
Note, I'm huge on eventually rendering weather a nonissue. Become a Kardashev II Civ ASAP.
Or build O'Neill colonies where the weather can be precisely controlled at all times.
cjet79
43m ago
I remember one of my old workplaces kind of avoided this due to the heroic efforts of a few very curmudgeonly and perhaps slightly autistic engineers that liked their environments and notifications in very particular ways. They would absolutely be the ones to say "no I don't care if this major product is down in production, I don't need to know about it because I work on this other unrelated minor product. You can't have an engineering team wide alert for your system going down.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
50m ago
futility of enforcement
I actually think enforcement for this is incredibly easy.
I live in downtown Toronto, I have a dog. My neighborhood is overrun with dogs as it's all mid/late 20s yuppies in condos that are too small for kids.
There was a park that became an unofficial dog off-leash park while the nearby dog park was renovated for a year. Once the dog park opened people didn't stop going to the "unofficial" one. Eventually, by-law officers started doing occasional driveby's, and would attempt to ticket people. I have no idea if they actually ticketed anyone, but it had a profound chilling effect on people using that park as an offleash area.
And they half-assed it! Just hire more by-law officers and have them circulate. The evidence is clear, people do NOT respond to the severity of punishment, anyone breaking rules breaks them without worrying about the consequences as they think they wont get caught. What changes behavior is the assessed risk % of getting caught. So increase enforcement in a visible way, and watch people adapt.
The problem is, that requires taking action and doing things, and western governments at all levels are profoundly allergic to doing things.
This is a side note, but I actually had an incredibly sad related moment last winter. My girlfriend, dog, and I were walking through a park that has a skating rink. The Zamboni had created a snow mountain beside it. I have incredibly fond memories of playing on these as a kid. It was surrounded by other optimal parent age young adults like us, all letting their dogs play on the snow mountain. There were no children in sight anywhere in the park (it was morning, to be fair). Our dog had a great time running around it, but holy fuck was it sad seeing such a visual representation of the collapse in our societies fertility.
faceh
51m ago
And if you're prepared to pay for that, you can!
That's about the reality if you're buying waterfront property on the coastline of Florida.
Naturally, only really wealthy people can buy such property.
mr_bailey
53m ago
I live near a large memory care facility, we get a lot of Silver Alerts from it. I'm ok with a text level of notification, but the actual alarm should be reserved for evacuation orders.
mr_bailey
56m ago
There were probably just memorable and your brain converts being able to remember multiple storms as meaning they must have happened often. Most parts of CA really don't get major thunderstorms all that often. Once every 1-3 years sounds about right for where I'm at for ex.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
57m ago
ha I'm more the opposite. The shell script is legible and easier to reason about. Using some GCP widget is going to not work for some mysterious reason and getting help impossible if the docs don't cover your use case.
mr_bailey
1hr ago
Yeah, a straight subsidy is better then whatever price controls CA keeps flirting with. There's a real risk that of breaking the property insurance market with those sorts of moves.
RenOS
something is wrong
1hr ago
I tried giving Worth the Candle a shot, but didn't like it. Maybe it will be subverted later on, but in the first book I found the implied worldview of the author not self-aware enough, sometimes bordering on the comical, which is especially bad considering that it's obvious the author wants to go for something more philosophical. The basic internal story was OK, good enough so that I finished book 1 without feeling like it was a slog, but I also have very little motivation to carry on. So, I guess it's at least still better than the Wandering Inn, which did turn into a slog just a few chapters in.
mr_bailey
1hr ago
His math is right:
"80 deaths 80 QALYS lost 365 2460 = 11 QALMS (Quality adjusted life minutes)"
80 deaths * 80 QALYS (generous, statistically prob. more like 60-70) lost * 365 * 24 * 60 / 330,000,000 => 10.19 (rounds up to 11 minutes)
Whether the population of the US is the right denominator is potentially debatable, but is not a priori crazy.
ControlsFreak
1hr ago
The only regress of grievances offered is one that exists at the pleasure of the sovereign and can be abolished at will.
Let's again go back to the analogy. If a parent with a maximally-oppositional child or a board game master with a maximally-oppositional player decides to press with their rule, what redress of grievances is available other than their pleasure? Yes, they can at will decide to give up on enforcement of the rule. There are tons of examples of that happening with the government, too. Moreover, there are many overlapping methods of petition for redress of grievances in a system like what the US has. That was kind of an important part of the founding movement. One might not like them; one might not think they are working in the way that they "should", but that is a separate matter from the mere question of what is required to state that all government rules are uniquely enforced by violence/kidnapping. You need to posit other things like maximal-opposition. In fact, if you ask someone who makes such a claim how they end up in such a situation, they almost by necessity appeal to maximal-opposition. "This rule seems to be enforced by a $5 fine, not violence/kidnapping." "Well, what if you don't pay that fine?" "The next step is X." "What happens if they refuse to comply with X?" "The next step is Y." "...what happens if they refuse to comply with Y?" And so on and so forth until you get to the point where violence/kidnapping occurs. There may be offramps along the way, but they all tend to be ignored in such reasoning. I'm simply pointing out that if we apply the same reasoning to essentially any other rule in the world, you either have to posit an offramp occurring, or you still end up in violence/kidnapping. Fewer people are quite as willing to think about this and apply the same reasoning to any other rule in the world.
There is a bit of a Clauswitzian feel to this reasoning. Any time you're trying to enforce any rule, either someone backs down, comes to an agreement or something, or escalates further. If we take any conflict over anything that seems like 'rule enforcement', if parties are willing to escalate and go further in their maximal opposition, you end up in warfare/violence. Politics is just one form of conflict management, but just as sure as war is politics by other means, violence in general is conflict management/"rule enforcement" by other means. Just take almost any example of a rule you want to enforce and walk through the exact same steps of, "Well, what if they're maximally-oppositional?"
Finally, to be completely clear, this is not an argument "against libertarianism". It is simply bringing clarity to the nature of one particular type of argument.
Botond173
1hr ago
You're absolutely right in that they didn't particularly start out that way, instead they only took on that image afterwards.
FtttG
1hr ago
In May, he hung up a poster advertising World Potato Day, saying that it fell on Thursday, May 30th. I very politely pointed out to him that May 30th falls on a Friday this year. I was legitimately annoyed about this - I'm not saying you have one job, but this responsibility of yours is a profoundly easy one, and you still managed to fuck it up?
Lazuli
1hr ago
Now consider this HR person is making a middle- to high-tier salary to spend his or her time looking through Wikipedia's monthly holiday lists, making the poster in Microsoft Office, preparing and printing copies, and placing them around the office. Meanwhile, the AI recruiter bot is busy filtering hundreds of applicants submitted for the ghost job meant to pump up the numbers for the HR person's quarterly quotas.
FtttG
1hr ago
What @Rov_Scam said, but with one pointer: as noted by someone else offering similar advice back when we were on Reddit, it's important to learn the dating app "meta" in the city in which you reside. In some cities Tinder is the "hookup" app and Hinge is the "serious relationship" app; in other cities, Tinder is the hookup and serious relationship app, and Hinge is unheard of. On a first pass my assumption is that Tinder is the hookup app and Hinge and Bumble are the serious relationship apps, but this may vary a lot from place to place. I met my girlfriend via Tinder, and I know at least three married couples who met via Tinder.
IGI-111
God was a dream of good government.
2hr ago
Art ennobles the soul. Vices do not.
Refusal to defer the authority to decide what is art and what is vice to others is all well and good, but it does not refute this reality.
IGI-111
God was a dream of good government.
2hr ago
there doesn't seem to be anything unique to government rules here. Yet, I don't think that most people are willing to apply this same standard to the entire set of rules in the universe.
This is not true. Private citizens can be reasoned and negotiated with. Sovereign rule is absolute. Especially in the context of the administrative state.
The only regress of grievances offered is one that exists at the pleasure of the sovereign and can be abolished at will.
You may argue that the lives of private citizens would bear similar relationships of total violence as they do with the State in the state of nature, but this is an argument against anarchism, not against libertarianism.
I'll trade safety seminars 1:1 for shortened lifespan any day of the week.
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