domain:anarchonomicon.substack.com
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
For an added bonus, parents tend to vote much more republican than the general population, and it's unclear how much of this is mom's voting like their husbands and how much of this is differential fertility and how much of this is normal getting-more-conservative-as-you-age.
FlyingLionWithABook
Has a C. S. Lewis quote for that.
3hr ago
We crushed Afghanistan: one of our easiest conquests, we lost about 13 guys conquering that country. Sure it was expensive to hold onto it for two decades, but conquering it was a cakewalk. Since we have no plans to conquer and rule China as imperial overlords, the occupation costs don’t really come into it: when it comes to winning battles, bignum GDP sure did crush nonum GDP like a bug.
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
Mexico's federal government does not have full territorial control of the country, so I'm not sure to what extent half-assed attempts at socialism can really cock things up. The upper-middle income industrial north in particular doesn't like taking orders from the DF very much; it'll be interesting if they start really pushing back on federal authority.
FlyingLionWithABook
Has a C. S. Lewis quote for that.
3hr ago
Killing the pigs does not free up the use of imported grain for human consumption when all the imports have been cut off! That’s my point. If the pigs were eating domestic grain you’d have a point, but the whole issue is that in a war food imports would be cut off, including the feed for pigs, which means fewer calories available for China to consume.
Note that China imports over 100 billion more dollars in agricultural goods than it exports, and that number has only grown over the last twenty years. That includes about $800 million in agricultural equipment imported from abroad. This isn’t just soybeans, it’s wheat, rice, and meat. And China is only 70% food self sufficient, not 90+..
You’ll want to Google more carefully next time: that page you linked to saying China exports more tractors than it imports is referring to semi truck tractors, not farm equipment: tariff code 8701.
The red tribe has significantly more regional and religious- and sometimes ethnic- variation amongst itself than the blue tribe, although it partially makes up for it by having a bit less generational variation. For a young-ish male red tribe normie of nonspecific ethnic background and lackluster religiosity in Texas-
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Listens to mostly music that plays on country radio, possibly including Taylor Swift if no one is around(I've seen coworkers hurriedly skip songs in their playlists to hide this). Probably has classic songs on his personal playlist- definitely some older country(think Johnny Cash, Willie Nelson, etc) and probably some classic rock or maybe hip hop(think eminem, not gangster rap). Agrees with his elders that modern pop culture and media mostly pushes bad messages and that's deplorable, but probably thinks country music and maybe some science fiction is a partial exception. Probably doesn't read too many books, or catch the latest movie releases, but almost certainly plays video games at least casually.
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Very proud that his job is useful and productive, and willing to explain exactly how. Is upset at people who do nothing useful yet command high salaries, like HR ladies. Probably thinks his boss is useful, earned his position, and deserves his salary, but thinks his boss's boss is an overpaid jackass who needs to get his nose out of a spreadsheet and deal with the real world. Biggest complaint about work is likely not getting paid enough.
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Sharply negative opinion of 'wokeness'. Thinks it's utterly retarded at best and more likely to be evil. Thinks anti-white hatred is a threat and may or may not connect wokeness with communism. Definitely doesn't believe in straight or male privilege and possibly a little bit uncomfortable with homosexuality, definitely thinks trannies(and he calls them that) are mentally ill. Still, unless he's particularly religious, he probably isn't socially conservative enough for the religious right. He likely thinks both parties are extreme on abortion, that casual sex is morally wrong but that waiting for marriage is ridiculous, and the death penalty is an obvious right. Very pro gun rights.
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Is a Christian- in decreasing order of likelihood, an Evangelical, a Catholic, "other Christian", Mormon, and mainline. Believes the bible is the truest thing ever written, and knows he should pay more attention to it, and probably feels guilty for not going to church every Sunday. But God is forgiving, he's pretty sure that's written in the bible somewhere.
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Really likes it when he gets to interact with or supervise elementary school-age boys(about 6 to 11, for non-Americans), but might be a bit less sold on other kids. Being a volunteer coach, scoutmaster, etc, is something he'd happily do. Wants kids and expects to eventually make financial sacrifices for the possibility, is possibly frustrated by the modern dating market and probably a bit scared by today's divorce laws. Still, if he's got a good woman and he's in the situation to get married, you can't be scared of everything.
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Expects his girlfriend's father to care a great deal about how much money he makes and not much about how reputable his job is, barring outliers like strip club manager or NFL quarterback. Is aware that buying that ring without her father's blessing is a serious faux pas. Expects to carry on a much more socially conservative lifestyle in practice after he gets married, and finds it suspect to seriously date a woman you're unwilling to marry if she gets pregnant.
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Believes sports are important, even if he doesn't participate in any(and that might be obvious from his physique). Follows football but probably is only peripherally aware of basketball and says baseball has 'too many games'. Definitely fishes, might go golfing, possibly thinks he should get into soccer but he doesn't. He thinks hunting is cool but doesn't go unless someone invites him. Owns a gun either way, and thinks responsible citizens(like himself) should have wide latitude to carry concealed and use guns in self defense.
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Strongly supports the police and military even if he hasn't personally served. Won't hesitate to recommend enlistment to a young man who seems a bit lost in life.
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Is very upset about inflation and the cost of housing, for which he mostly blames democrats. Is not vaccinated and opinions of the covid response run along the spectrum from 'hysterical, neurotic, and possibly psychotic in the clinical sense' to 'actually evil'. Strong supporter of Gov. Abbott's border behavior and wishes he'd confront the federal government like that to build nuclear power plants. Might question universal suffrage after a drink or two, but isn't quite sure how the franchise should be restricted. Supports a retirement age for politicians.
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Doesn't approve of Trump's personal behavior, but doesn't think he's done anything that would be illegal if normal people did it. Might think some of the January 6 prisoners are being prosecuted unfairly, but probably not all of them. Is aware that democracy is decaying and firmly blames democrats and particularly Trump derangement syndrome; his elders talk about communism and socialism, and he's aware those are bad things, but it looks more like social and environmental than economic lunacy that's an actual threat to him. Thinks immigration is excessive but that deporting millions of people is a pie-in-the-sky exercise; admires the first gen illegals for their work ethic but thinks their children are great arguments against birthright citizenship. Is not a race realist or a white nationalist, but probably thinks it's better to be white than anything else, and doesn't even try to reconcile the two beliefs.
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Knows there's just no fixing some people, but doesn't like tying it to a specific quality like intelligence or conscientiousness. Knows those people are disproportionately likely to be black, but thinks everyone should have the chance to be judged individually, on their merits. Has a very low opinion of black culture. Tells jokes about all the different kinds of people, but only to those he knows well. Might still be prejudiced against new englanders. If he doesn't agree with you he'll tell you to your face, and expects people to get to the point if they have something to say.
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Talks to his dad regularly and consults with him for advice. Might travel or do activities with his dad and wouldn't find it an insult to be compared to him. The same might go for grandpa. Definitely does not think using parental resources is wrong, as long as he's not a burden, but he'd think there's something wrong with a man who lives with his parents well into adulthood(a woman, probably not).
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Looks down his nose at 'woo-woo crap', but himself willing to listen to alternate medicine and a wide variety of conspiracy theories. Might go on oddball diets, but cheats on them. Expects women to be doing this perpetually.
SerialStateLineXer
3hr ago
No, but a reduction in marginal rates would. Lump-sum tax credits are basically welfare, with neutral or harmful incentive effects, while reductions in marginal rates have beneficial incentive effects.
The thing that's especially bad about blanket student loan cancellation is that it can't really be justified on either incentive or distributional grounds. That is, it doesn't encourage working harder or saving more, the way marginal rate cuts would, and it isn't targeted to people who are in particular need of help, the way traditional welfare is.
TIRM
3hr ago
The answer is D, productive and peaceful
55% of Illinois 8th graders get this wrong.
I've posted a few of these to Twitter. Some are mathy, and some are word problems. This one about the Asanazi drives some people berserk
I don't get it. How do these people think it is anything but D? They go berserk defending not-D? By what justification?
jeroboam
3hr ago
I just want to say that I think the site is good, and that the moderators are doing a good job.
I wish people would post more top-level comments. I'm trying to be the change, but I also feel like I tend to argue too much so it would be better if others did.
But I'm not sure positive change is possible. We're here because we found Scott's blog. That was an amazing selection mechanism that might never happen again. Even the current readers of Scott's blog aren't the same as the ones from before the incident.
So our best bet is retention.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
3hr ago
This government source cited by Wikipedia's article on this topic seems to indicate that the effect of an EMP somehow scales with the length of the wire through "line coupling", so short wires in a car or a wristwatch will be largely unaffected, while longer wires used for electrical transmission will experience severe effects.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
3hr ago
those who fail to get jobs or only get low-paying jobs simply do not pay anyway. the bulk of payments is by people who get decent jobs.
Even if you subscribe to 3, there’s a possible justification; the government does have an interest in an educated populace.
credentialism is not the same as education. Below-market rate loans with extremely lenient repayment terms are the only way to make it affordable without having to impose price controls or controlling credentialism. Both sides like credentialism: employers get a large, prescreen population for hiring purposes, and the left gets to force their courses and ideology on the population. So the result is a distorted market.
jeroboam
4hr ago
I'm not sure what you're referring to.
My original proposal was to give money to people who work 30 hours a week and get paid less than $30/hour (or something). Because if we're doing payouts to random people, they should get it, not people who took out ill-advised student loans and may often be quite privileged.
Giving it to workers with kids is even better. We need more workers with kids. And less students pursuing useless degrees. Because, as you point out, few of the student loan forgivees will be doing useful work like welding.
Raiding university endowments would be a wonderful way to pay for some of the cost.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
4hr ago
Okay, who are these “workers” you have in mind? Because looking at the press release, it’s something like 10% of loan holders. Not much spread across…welders. Or baristas, or whatever.
jeroboam
4hr ago
Even if you subscribe to 3, there’s a possible justification; the government does have an interest in an educated populace. I think it’s the most compelling out of these, because teaching a generation that aspiring to a better job will actually prevent them from affording kids is burning the candle on both ends.
I think this one is wrongheaded and it's why the Republicans need an equal and opposite stimulus to undo the damage, and then hopefully, reach an armed truce.
The country doesn't need the kind of education that these loans are paying for. In fact, one of the criteria for forgiveness was the uselessness of the degree. From the press release:
Helping borrowers who enrolled in low-financial-value programs or institutions
We need people in the economy working, or studying for the purpose of that work, not studying useless things.
This is where the humanities professor says something like, "life shouldn't be all work and no play". And I agree! That's why we need relief for workers. Because workers deserve more pay, fewer hours, and better benefits. And all of this is harder to achieve if we pay and reward people for doing useless, even counterproductive, things.
We've already reached the point at which further education is mostly a net negative. I'm okay with it as a luxury good. But asking workers to pay for it is too much.
ResoluteRaven
4hr ago
I believe there's a decent amount of literature in the field of linguistics about sign languages and their relation to visuospatial intelligence and memory, but I don't know the details. I've tried my hand (pun intended) at learning ASL, but never got far enough to truly appreciate the differences between it and spoken languages.
sansampersamp
4hr ago
That's one of the most absurd products I've seen. A diesel generator is going to be absolutely fine, it's the wiring in your house you need to worry about. Zero need for a faraday cage to be more complicated than a metal box, either.
NelsonRushton
4hr ago
netstack
Texas is freedom land
4hr ago
I’m with Tomato. Assuming this is constitutional (apparently a big ask), it’s just as legitimate as tax cuts or farm subsidies or energy credits or every other education program. The minarchist pipe dream of a government without redistribution is not and never has been on the table.
It’s not ascribed to social justice, either. Sometimes that shows up, because it is fashionable, but messaging like the linked press release have nothing to say about the subject. No, it’s framed as relief for economic hardship.
Many of these loans were taken out with the expectation of securing a valuable job. If that didn’t materialize, who’s to blame?
- The lender, due to irresponsible bets
- The lender, due to bad luck
- The borrower, due to bad luck
- The borrower, due to being a dumb idiot who doesn’t know that history is a fake degree
If you believe 1 or 2, you have an excuse to support redistribution. Even if you subscribe to 3, there’s a possible justification; the government does have an interest in an educated populace. I think it’s the most compelling out of these, because teaching a generation that aspiring to a better job will actually prevent them from affording kids is burning the candle on both ends.
But it’s 4 that underpins the opposition. For those who believe that the beneficiaries are stupid, there’s barely any reason to soften the blow. And if one thinks they’re malicious, abusing the system to get an education they never intended to pay off…well. Might as well take one’s own slice, right?
That’s not to say I actually agree with the policy. It sucks and it only has the thinnest veneer of a justification outside of the class warfare. If nothing else, it’s contributing to the credential inflation which devalued degrees in the first place.
But throwing helicopter money at some other group? That’s the worst option. There’s no reason to do it unless you’re playing tit-for-tar against the least charitable version of your enemies. At that point, it’s all over but the crying.
sliders1234
4hr ago
Nasdaq went 14 years without a new high. It’s not uncommon for a market to have droughts of that long usually going from high valuations to lower valuations while still having internal growth. And then doing a new cycle to high valuations. Also I am not positive on what was in the index back then but I would guess a lot of mining and banking back then. Today it’s 30% consumer defensive. It traded 9-10 today. Mining and banking have sucked in any country. Change in industry composition within the index is likely.
I did try to leave it open ended. I was rather confused when I saw it down 10% today. Admittedly, the politics look a little scary for investors here. 10 pe with the U.S. booming and a real desire by U.S. corporations to near shore is my counter.
Skibboleth
4hr ago
Let's bring back stimulus check discourse.
Skibboleth
4hr ago
Would a student loan tax credit with identical bottom line implications be more legitimate than direct forgiveness?
aqouta
4hr ago
The main problem is just the source of new blood since leaving reddit. I've dropped a couple links to vault on twitter as a bread crumb and can't really know if we've caught anymore. Improving the vault, updating it with more links might help. I think more or less the moderators do an excellent job and I have very little criticism, I could give or take the hlynka ban.
You think the cartels provide better governance than Morena? Or is there some other group which contests the central government?
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