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Notes -
Let's talk about Israel and Palestine.
Okay, I can hear you sighing already. But before you look away, let's talk about Clausewitz.
War is a continuation of politics by other means. In our ideological age, where everything is political, it may not seem profound: but it establishes a commonality between the military and civilian where analogies can be made. Like, 'what if we have no ability to fight a war, but continue it anyway?' Could we just... filibuster, our enemies, until they give us the political ends we desire?
This concept is similar to the Trotskyite concept of 'no war, no peace'. (That the policy ended in disaster and Brest-Litovsk bodes ill.) In the Clausewitzian model, war is conducted between states. The loser gives concessions to the winner, with the assumption that even a bad peace is better than a bad war, that ending hostilities - even for the moment - is the best way to bring about revanchist policy.
The differential between Palestine and Israel in terms of military capacity is greater than ever: it was never at par, even in 1948. Seventy-five years later and the Arabs might as well be Ewoks against the Empire. Not to say that they lack the capacity to harm the Israelis, but they have no military capacity to enforce political goals on their enemy. Even now, their demands for a ceasefire are entirely one sided: they are simply outmatched in every conceivable military dimension.
There exists a hope in the Palestinian cause, that there will be a tipping point where they can present to the international community of some Israeli atrocity that will bring about a external intervention. It is the only card they have to play. But now that Israel has control of the food aid that goes into Gaza with the ousting of UNWRA, time is no longer on their side. Their enemy will never consent to a return to the former status quo, no matter how urgently the international community chastises them.
Not coming to terms and holding on for maximalist goals may seem like a cheat in insurgency warfare. But inevitably, reality and physical limits intrude onto the nationalist fantasy. It is chutzpah of the highest order to rely on the charity and good will of your enemy to feed your people. This conflict - indefinitely sustained by Soviet leftist dregs of the anti-colonialist cause - will come to an end not through some master stroke of diplomacy, but a famine long in the making.
Hamas sought to use international sympathy as a weapon, relying on the services provided by American and European NGOs so that they could devote all the funds they neglected to invest in their civilians into their military. Now that military is destroyed, they have no leverage at all. The Israelis are not bluffing. They will not give in, no matter what the pressure. They are perfectly willing to watch Gaza starve until some entity comes out of the territory that they can negotiate with.
As Calgacus would say, "They make a desert and call it peace." Modern problems require Roman solutions. The fatal Palestinian mistake was that they always assumed Israel would come to the negotiating table. After fifty years of fruitless negotiation, the Israelis finally have had enough. There will be no more deals, no more bargains. Just the short, terminal drop to destruction.
If Israel starves all Gazans to death, there would probably be a severe international response. We are seeing consistent public opinion shifts against Israel already. Mike Huckabee’s recent shift is a telling example. There’s also been a general shift against Judaism among the public. The question is how much Israel can torture the civilians before there is sufficient moral pressure to make them stop.
If they had genocided them in the 1960s, they would've probably gotten away with it.
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Hence the framing. If one believes that the torture is being inflicted by Hamas' refusal to surrender then there ought to be moral pressure on them to do so.
Hamas surrendering will not happen, but even if it did, it wouldn't stop the fighting. If you could magically get the Hamas leadership to surrender, they'd either be murdered by their underlings or, after declaring they surrendered, a new organization would spring up to fight Israel. Gaza is not a case of a peace-desiring or indifferent population being dragged into war by their leadership; it's a case of a war-loving population having the leaders they want.
I think there are multiple meanings of surrender that are confused here. I don't mean retreat and it's not just leaving the populace or the underlines to do whatever. In this context I meant it as keeping the organization of forces and all materiel intact and accounted for while ordering every member to obey without exception the orders of the victor.
Hamas is more than capable of imposing their will on the populace of Gaza.
Hamas is not capable of that sort of surrender. There is no "emperor of Hamas" who will be listened to if he tells everyone to obey the Israelis.
First, on a normative level, this is why international law requires command authority. An armed force must be “under a command responsible for the conduct of its subordinates”. I'm sure I"m preaching to the choir here, but "We have constituted our armed forces to be incapable of X, therefore it isn't our fault if we don't do X" is a game theoretic self-own. It's invites the very conduct we seek to proscribe.
Second, I'm not sure that's right. Hamas is more than capable of butchering domestic opposition. They did it to the PLO, they can impose what they want at the tip of a bayonet and be obeyed. Perhaps though.
International law can require command authority all it wants; it can't make it actually exist. Hamas's leadership cannot surrender and retain command authority.
Of course. But it goes to who is at fault -- the siege ends when Hamas surrenders. That Hamas has constructed itself to make that impossible to surrender doesn't change the fact that the lack of surrender is the but-for cause that perpetuates the siege.
International law can't make anyone do anything -- but it does assign normative responsibility based on the practices of nations. Doubly so when there the construction that prevents the resolution of the conflict based on that practice is itself against that practice.
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Are Gazans starving ? Not yet at least. Not in the way we understand starving. At 5.8%, that would put it alongside stable middle-economy nations like Mexico, Thailand and Brazil. Most of Africa & the Indian Subcontinent are doing twice as worse. Gaza's tragedies, like Ukraine over-reported in comparison to mundane everyday evil that kills more people everywhere else.
What's left? To viewers on social media, Israel is already conducting a holocaust-esque genocide. Facts be damned. I imagine Israel can keep going for much longer, because Hamas has milked social media sympathy for all its worth. The only pressure that matters comes from the State department or Israel's population. A change of heart of either group will come from a frustration with the ineffectiveness of how the war is run, rather than any moral calculus.
The 5.8% figure is from two months ago and was already part of an upward trajectory. The writeup you linked largely confirms that Gazans are starving, though it argues that it's not due to Israel withholding aid.
We're talking past each other, and I'm at fault.
When I say starvation, I imagine a famine where people are dying in droves. Deadly famines were a part of life in the Indian Subcontinent until the 1980s. Today, chronic wasting and stunting remain commonplace.
On further reflection, I'm being plain heartless. Years of walking past beggars under the bridge has stripped me of humanity. Just because starvation is common in the subcontinent, doesn't mean I should withhold my sympathy for the Gazans. It's true that the world only cares when Europeans(ish) are dying. I'm sour about it, no doubt. But, sympathies aren't zero sum.
I'm still right going by my definition of starvation. But, it's a moot definition. Shouldn't have to wait for the situation to turn into a biblical locust-plague before it can be called starvation.
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I am responding to the OP’s future scenario
You linked me to a long write-up by an activist. Why should I take it seriously? Do you have a specific reason to think Gaza isn’t facing starvation? Why not specify the compelling evidence instead of saying “here, read this long tweet by LiterallyWho”
Why should I not trust the UN? https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/07/1165457
Why should I not trust the World Food Programme? https://x.com/WFP/status/1947036919289741771
Why should I not trust the World Hunger Organization? https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/gaza-facing-man-made-mass-starvation-says-whos-tedros-2025-07-23/
Why should I not trust the NYT? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/world/middleeast/gaza-starvation.html
Why should I not trust Médecins Sans Frontières, Save the Children, and Oxfam? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce9xkx7vnmxo.amp
Are American Baptists lying to me? https://www.oxfamamerica.org/press/more-than-100-organizations-are-sounding-the-alarm-to-allow-lifesaving-aid-into-gaza/
^ Is the Catholic charity group Caritas from Germany lying to me?
^ Is the Episcopal Peace Fellowship lying to me?
Is Japan International Volunteer Center lying to me?
^ Is the Mennonite Central Committee lying to me?
The starvation claimed by the linked urls and a starvation where 'Israel starves all Gazans to death' are not the same thing. My contention is with the slippery slope framing of it. I don't believe the OP was implying mass famine either.
The standoff between Israel, UN and Hamas is technically causing starvation, but there is a big difference between undernourishment and deadly famine. I am uniquely heartless having grown up in the 3rd world. Stunting & wasting is commonplace. Deadly famines killed millions until the 1980s. I could have more sympathy. I'll try.
That being said, the article I linked is worth reading. The linked author seems legitimate enough. Biased, yes. But, not an activist. He also posts on substack, but the article was pay walled there.
Antisemitism isn't a monolith. Thinking of it as a monolith is unproductive and misleading. There are at least 4 distinct groups that plausibly hate jews: Muslims, Leftists, Incels and Bandwagoners.
Muslims hatred for Jews runs deep. This is proper bigotry. Proper antisemitism. Modern muslims may articulate a rationale for their hatred of Israel, and there are many good reasons. But, the hatred precedes those reasons.
Leftists hate Jews for being perceived as right-wing (economically and socially) oppressors.
Incels hate Jews because they are smart and rich. It's hatred rooted in jealousy and resentment. Here, an incel is a standin-term for a chronically online man who believes in a binary alpha male / beta male characterization of the world. They aren't necessarily sexless. Many black men (famously Kanye) and poor whites fit this bill.
Bandwagoners only care about optics. Optics tell them that Israel is bad and worth hating so they hate them. bandwagoners are most vulnerable to visible displays of cruelty. This is the largest group.
In Europe, rising antisemitism has to do with a rising Muslim population. Similarly, in NYC, it has to do with the rise of a Muslim-coded leftist as mayoral candidate. On college campuses, the rise in antisemitism is because of bandwagoners who can't afford to be seen as uncool in university. University leftists were always antisemitic, so there isn't much scope for rise there. On the internet and especially X, it is fueled by incel tears.
The reason I make this distinction, is because leftists and bandwagoners channel their hatred through Netanyahu. If he goes, Israel may get a period of relief from these 2 groups. As jews continue to lose face in public, incels are already losing motivation. If the new Israeli leader lacks big-dick-energy, the incels will mark him as effeminate and move over to their next source of resentment.
That leaves us with the Muslims. I don't have an answer here. Muslims seem to genuinely hate Jews and Israel. I don't know if anything can be done about it. As the population of devout muslims rises through the 1st world, antisemitism will rise in lockstep. Maybe they'll become irreligious as they integrate. But, the results in Europe aren't encouraging.
Ironically, most of the American Jews (excluding Hassids and similar groups) are in deep love with the Left and especially the Left's economical and social doctrines. Not all, I'd say but the majority, especially the prominent Jews that show up on TV.
Kanye though is not poor and hardly unsuccessful. While black antisemitism has long and sordid history (which mostly resides on the "convenient proxy for oppression" part) I don't think alt-right antisemitism comes from that angle. Rather, it comes from resentment with the general power structure setup in American society, which many people, especially on the right, are feeling, and instead of doing proper intellectual work of figuring out where that comes from, reaching for the ages-old convenient explanation. Of course if shit's going wrong, it must be the Jews! It's always the Jews! Everybody knows that! And of course, the thing I mentioned above - many American Jews being in deep love with the left, even while the Left hates them - doesn't help since it automatically codes them as "the enemy".
There's always "Mossad". Mossad has a ton of big dick energy, and you can blame them for literally anything - after all, not having any evidence just proves how cunning they are, you didn't expect the Mossad to leave any evidence, are you stupid or what?!
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Incels? That's one I haven't heard. Thought that was orthogonal to perceptions of Jewish people. Being driven to dislike everyone except Jewish and Asian men and in the entertainment industry seems more fitting. Jewish guys have a nebbish reputation after all. It's the Booty Sweat celebs you'd think most piss them off.
I suppose to the degree incels are nerdy and into Asian women (I'm very much not, and frankly don't get it) then the likes of Zuckerberg and wife and the salience of rich Jewish nerds may weigh heavily on them.
This is just a fancy way to say "dissident" when it comes from the mouths of the orthodox (who believe they are dissidents axiomatically).
There's a stereotype that Asian cultures tend to encourage women to have a healthier relationship with what men want, and men who are not getting what they want right now are more aware of that. When the orthodox say that, though, it's mostly to attack Asian women for being pick-mes (orthodoxy defines itself in opposition to everything men might want, so their existence lessens their power).
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He is using an, uh, unconventional definition of incel. See, the sentence right after his use of the word.
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Because they’re all dirty liars that have constantly lied about every single thing over at least the last 12 years I’ve been paying attention?
I clicked on link 3 at random, read the article, and am unsure how or what you’re supposed to be trusting.
I’m being honest here - what is it even saying?
‘ Israel shouldn't be be in charge of food distribution to Gaza - people in Gaza are hungry - Palestinians have been killed trying to get food ‘
It’s a fucking war.
What is it that you’re supposed to come away with? Why did you link it? What is it supposed to mean to me?
It seems to be every international org, and every unbiased org, any unaffiliated with Israel, that have been testifying the same thing. Why would Swedes or Japanese or American Baptists all be lying? The UN, in the link at #3, is saying that their own staff face hunger and “hospitals have admitted people in a state of severe exhaustion caused by a lack of food.”
Hardly. It’s disproportionate, there’s no viable objective, Israel’s intention is to ethnically cleanse the land, and there’s no legitimate reason to be punishing the civilian populations by withholding aid or firing on civilians attempting to obtain aid.
Israel has always been disliked by basically everyone because "Jews" aside from American conservatives who either A) Recognized Islam as a greater threat; or B) Were religious fellas hoping for a restoration of the holy land, eventually. Or maybe the rapture.
There are very few actual option in this situation. Gazans, by a vast majority, want a genocide of Israel. Israeli's are a split bunch, some want genocide of Gaza, some want peace, and some want to genocide themselves. The people who want peace cant get it. So long as no magical entity comes and brainwashes the Gazans into thinking Jews are cool and good neighbors (see, for example, the fictional jutsu kotoamtsukami it will continue to be. We then are left with two permanent solutions, being genocide of either side. Lay down your chips, which would you prefer?
I disagree with "always".
Israel was popular with the pro-establishment left well into the 1980s, even in countries where the pro-establishment left wasn't dominated by Jews. The Yes, Minister sketch about Israel-Palestine has Hacker and the politicians being pro-Israel because it is the moderate, popular position and Sir Humphrey and the Deep State being pro-Palestine because they want to make nice to the Gulf Arabs. (This was back when the Gulf Arab monarchies were as anti-Israel as the rest of the Arab world). Pro-establishment right attitudes to Israel used to depend on how much the pro-establishment right favoured making nice to the Gulf Arabs for cynical oil-politics reasons vs standing up for Western values.
Why? A combination of Cold War politics (Israel's worst enemies where Soviet clients), Holocaust guilt, straightforward preference for civilisation over barbarism, and a belief among non-Communist socialists that Israel back when Labour was the natural party of government was a socialist success story.
What changed? The Cold War ended, post-colonial guilt replaced Holocaust guilt, the era where Israel was a plucky underdog receded into history, changes in Israeli domestic politics made it less sympathetic to Western leftists (and, increasingly, with the rise of religious Zionism and the increasing influence of true-believing Orthodox Judaism, fans of Western civilisation more generally), the humanitarian situation for Palestinians in the West Bank (for which Israel is to blame) and Gaza (for which Israel is widely but unfairly blamed) got worse after the failure of Oslo compared to pre-Oslo.
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Ot C) see Christianity as having developed from Judaism and consider themselves culturally tied to Jews. Also, they are more likely to be politically conservative which means they support American allies.
Supporting Israel because it brings about the Rapture is basically a weakman.
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It’s defensive.
It’s to no longer be attacked, to get back hostage bodies, and to be safe in the future.
It isn’t - if those Palestinians were instead Germans or Chinese, this wouldn’t be happening. It is happening because instead they have a death cult attacking them for decades at their doorstep.
The aid is constantly going to Hamas. Outside of very specific incidences, Israel is not firing on civilians. And certainly not on purpose or wholesale.
The Gazan population has grown.
Nothing you’re saying is accurate or true.
This is a warzone and you’re sending out anti Israeli propaganda. That the place even has hospitals is amazing.
Yea they're really giving the impression of being on the defensive. This is preventative, and coupled with a highly ideological notion of getting that land back and removing these people once and for all.
"Defensive" in that it's a direct response to offensive action, not that they're currently holding ground and trying not to get pushed back by a sustained opposing offensive.
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What did Mike Huckabee do?
He called Israel unwelcoming to Christian organizations and then met with the Palestinian authority yesterday.
Letter from him qua ambassador: https://static-cdn.toi-media.com/www/uploads/2025/07/IMG_0737-merged.pdf
To be fair to Israel, there is a truly massive amount of resources flowing from United States evangelical organizations to Christian missionaries in Israel. It’s not much of a secret that the purpose of these missionaries is to convert Jews into Christians. I’m surprised it took them this long to remember they have borders.
Whats wrong with converting Jews to Christians anyway? Plenty of secular Jews are welcome in Israel, whats wrong with ethnic Jews that are Christian?
Jews are widely treated as a kind of endangered species.
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It's the only thing that will cause a halachic jew to lose their halachically jewish status, IIRC.
They are still considered Jewish according to Halacha in that they can revert to Judaism without having to undergo the conversion that a gentile would undergo.
The practicing another religion thing is more specifically about Aliyah / migration to Israel. That is governed by different rules and so some groups that are not halachicly Jewish (patrilineal descendants of the first and second generation) are allowed and groups that are (converts to other religions born of Jewish mothers) are disallowed.
In practice the rules are very rarely enforced. A substantial minority of Soviet / Russian immigrants were (and are) low key practicing Christians, true even if the recent post-2022 Ukrainian wave. Unless someone is an open missionary on social media they are rarely rejected.
I legitimately did not know that converting to another religion means you don't qualify for the Law of Return. What I can't figure out (with five minutes of Googling) is whether that applies to atheist or agnostic Jews. Like, atheism isn't a religion you convert to, right? But it would be weird if Christian Jews were disqualified but atheist Jews weren't.
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Do decorating a conifer around the New Year and boiling eggs for Easter count as Christian practices?
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He made it a public issue that Israel was withholding evangelical visas and then visited the church that Israel shelled (killing three Catholics)
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