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Notes -
Who else up watching election results? As of the time of this writing Decision Desk has called all of:
The Virginia governor race in favor of Abigail Spanberger (D).
The Virginia lieutenant governor race in favor of Ghazala Hashmi (D and the first Muslim woman elected to statewide office).
The Virginia Attorney General race in favor of Jay Jones (D lmao).
The New Jersey governor race in favor of Mickie Sherrill (D).
The NYC mayoral race for Zohran Mamdani (D, projecting a majority of the vote too lmao).
Both statewide Georgia Public Service Commissioner races for the Democratic candidates.
Polls are still open in California so no word yet there on the redistricting ballot measure. In other Jay Jones news the house delegate who leaked his texts is on track to lose her re-election, as part of dems winning a trifecta in the Virginia government.
The county by county level results I've seen show pretty much all of the above running ahead of Harris and Spanberger even running ahead of Biden in 2020. Is this indicative of what we might see going forward? Dems had previously overperformed in special elections this year but this is the closest to a general until next years actual federal elections. If these trends hold up not a good sign for Republicans!
How does that fit into a wider context? I see 7/7 Democrat wins. Were there just seven meaningful races? Were they expected to go D regardless of the current trends? Anything special about any of those races?
Jay Jones's win -- and lackluster to nonexistent pushback from the 'moderate centrist's -- is pretty radicalizing.
Golly, until this election we held politicians to a high standard of restraint and decorum, and now suddenly for no reason at all people don’t care much any more.
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Guys, are users here surprised by this outcome? I don't think you should conclude that over half of residents in Virginia want you personally dead. You should conclude that most of them know nothing about this text scandal that only the Motte and Twitter know about, but they know about every single time ICE tackled a protestor.
The mainstream media has been hammering the Trump administration's every move. I listen to breathless NPR coverage every morning, and they're complaining about something new and "unprecedented" literally every single day. People actually think Republicans shut down the government on purpose just to specifically repeal Obamacare subsidies, instead of letting them expire when the law said that they would expire. How could Virginia ever, ever have had any other outcome in this election?
The traditional media channels still have a say in what people think about and talk about, and they do not want you to be happy with the Trump administration.
To quote myself 29 days ago:
The meme would be I'm not surprised, I'm just disappointed, but I didn't have the hope for that. I'm mostly just trying not to become a ball of rage.
Trump was not on the ballot this year. Jaye's opponent was not campaigning -- nor was -- a MAGA Trumpist. Neither would have any power over immigration law or enforcement. There is near-unprecedented access, bought at no small cost, for information outside of the mainstream media and NPR cloister, at the same time that the broader progressive movement is crowing about the importance of Not Ignoring Evil. Jone's comments even got some mainstream attention.
The best-case scenario would hold that despite all those unprecedented (and likely unstable) advantages and uniquely bad behaviors, it wasn't enough. Indeed, it turned out to be enough not enough that it mattered less than past scandals in the same state.
But, worse, that's a prediction that would predict side effects. 'If only the average voter knew' runs headfirst into what we're imagining that the average voter would do if they did know. And some of them did. Optimistically, maybe one-in-ten? Forget anyone running out into the street and screaming into the sky like a Charlton Heston outtake, forget any member of the Abundance Caucus speaking against the man without being pushed about him first. You'd expect to see someone horrified.
So then the next best-case scenario's that everyone just thought it hyperbole, or joke. But then you look at everybody that thought it funny when Kirk was murdered...
But no. They don't 'want' me dead. They don't even know me! It'd just be funny afterward.
I didn’t follow the race (I don’t live in Virginia), but if DuckDuckGo is to be believed, the only mention of Donald trump on Jason Miyares’ campaign website is in a Washington Post piece that was copied to the website. Nothing condemning the fake electors scheme (which he presumably knew about when he campaigned for Donald Trump in 2024). Nothing condemning the use of the Justice Department to go after his enemies. Low level cases like the prosecution of Sydney Reid (which I assume Trump had no knowledge of but which likely is the consequences of his personnel choices and the tone he sets) also go unmentioned.
So Miyares wasn’t campaigning as a MAGA Republican, but he also didn’t go out of his way to indicate that he would take his duty as attorney general to the law over the wishes of Donald Trump. Miyares was the only candidate in Virgina endorsed by Donald Trump. Miyares could have refused to accept the endorsement; he didn’t.
Someone running for attorney general can’t plausibly claim to have no interest in what Trump is doing to the Department of Justice and the rule of law, so silence looks like complicity. Another way to look at this is that if somebody is running for office, they either define themselves forcefully or risk letting other people define them.
That's a defense that would undermine Spanbergler, nevermind Jones, and notably it didn't. Neither could forcefully define themselves as the not-killing-kids (and committing hilarious frauds, if we're going to pretend 'rule of law' matters).
Dem voters just didn't care.
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Don't worry. I'm sure all of our stalwart norms enjoyers will pop in to excoriate the Democrats for liking Jones even more after his comments came out.
Sure - I'm a "norms enjoyer". Let's have a look at the texts,
I think Jones clearly wishes death upon Republicans (and with the "breeding little fascists" comment, he also harbours an extreme hatred towards White people) And if Gilbert, or any other Republican were assassinated, he would secretly celebrate their deaths.
I think it's a bad thing that the Democrats elected such a person as a State AG. Even though he said he was sorry, the texts were egregiously hateful, so non-progressives will likely see his future uses of discretion as illegitimate, and stuff like this encourages escalation because it makes people feel unsafe.
The only caveat I'd add is that I'm opposed to the leaking of private messages between friends. But the messages were leaked, and we can see them: an immoral source for the evidence does not make the inference drawn any less valid.EDIT: I misunderstood the (non-existent) nature of his relationship with Coyner.Now that he knows it doesn't matter, he'd openly celebrate their deaths.
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AFAIK this even left out the worst part, which is that he doubled down yet again that he hopes their kids are killed, bleeding out in front of them.
Do you have a source for more of the texts? Everything I found online was just the 3 screens in my link.
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This is a lie. They were not friends, unless you think everyone you work with, even in an adversarial manner, is your "friend". This was sheer gloating directly to a political rival on the other team. He directly said these things, while a Democrat state legislator, to another Republican state legislator, while they were both serving, in the aftermath of a 3rd state legislators funeral.
That's the sort of unhinged psychopath that now has top legal authority over me and my growing family of "little fascist".
Right, I had initially thought this was the case because the articles I found never mentioned a long-standing relationship. But I dismissed this as being too insane... it seems not, and the reason there was no mention was because he went out of his way to harass her.
Yes, the enemy of the people are excellent at telling only the truth, but still leaving you believing a lie.
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It might be possible to describe me as a "stalwart norms enjoyer", but I have also quixotically been trying to cultivate a sense of tribalism around my state and regional culture, and and a sense that my "out group" is everyone else.
This is an ongoing process, but it means I am trying to genuinely not care about every outrage that happens in another state on the right or the left. Those are basically foreign countries, and as long as they mostly play by the rules of our constitutional system, they can rot or flourish for all I care about them.
Who cares what the silly foreigners in Dixie or Tidewater or Yankeedom get up to? I don't live in any of those countries, and I'm sure they're better equipped to manage their own affairs than I am. As long as they don't make it my problem if/when things go wrong thanks to their bad policies, why should I care who they elect?
Don't get me wrong, the coresidents of my state can look out at the foreign nations that are part of our federal league and try to learn what to do and what not to do based on the practical experience those foreign nations get up to, but I'm not a busybody. What can an attorney general in Virginia do to my kith and kin in my state? Does he have any real power to harm me, being away in the far off foreign nation of Tidewater?
As long as the dirty Tidewaterers don't start moving to where I live and make things go to shit with their inferior cultural values, I feel safe and secure in my own city.
I do care what the leader of our military league does, because it affects people in the region I actually care about as well. I don't think that makes me a hypocrite.
I overall agree with your attitude and it's one I try to cultivate myself, but living in places that have been overrun by Californians et al. demonstrates the weakness of that position. I could say "what does an AG race in California have to do with me?" and then Harris ends up as VP and running for President. I'm not going to get worked up about, or even think much about, the Virginia AG race other than posting about it here, but I can't be 100% certain it's not going to have eventual unpleasant effects in my life.
Same for Mamdani's election. I couldn't care less about NYC (I think Goldwater's take on the eastern seaboard had some merits), but when NYCers start flooding into my state to escape him, then I have to deal with it. And having dealt with plenty of former New Yorkers, they'll complain incessantly about how bad the city was, but then vote to replicate its problems while complaining about what a shithole cultural desert they've fled to.
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There is no bottom. Jennifer Welch reacting to a clip from Virginia where normie democrats were talking about being glad Charlie Kirk was dead, and might want the Republican Media Person interviewing them to be murder too was right. Murdering Republicans is a winning campaign platform, and Democrats need to get with the message or be left behind.
God help us all.
Would you prefer the Democrats to moderate and then appeal to normies?
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Well, at least this is a place of reason and decency. I'm sure the respectability centrists among us will pop in to drop some absolutely scathing denounciations of the Virgina Democrat party. I mean, if they didn't then that would be taken as Bayesian evidence that they never sincerely cared about respectability and standards and norms at all, and it was just pure arguments as soldiers and that they're morally more contemptible than men like Donald Trump or George Santos. So I'm sure they'll be by.
Any time now.
Your first post was a low-effort sneer (@gattsuru was at least pointing at something substantive, a specific grievance, you are just sneering). Your second post above is doubling down on the non-specific callouts of non-specific "respectability centrists" whom you are apparently accusing of being morally contemptible hypocrites who don't actually care about standards and decency. As an enforcer of standards and norms here, I am telling you this is a terrible post because all it does is spray piss on the floor. Apparently the eight people who have reported you so far agree.
So you're angry that Jay Jones won. That's fine. Who, exactly, do you think you are directing this venom at? Because just saying, as @gattsuru did, that it's radicalizing that Democrats elected him despite his abhorrent statements is fair commentary. But you seem to be angry and wanting to start a fight with people here.
I'm not going to say "Who?" because we don't actually encourage named call-outs just to start fights, but on the other hand, it's hard to see who you did have in mind. A couple of people have already asked if you mean them. I dunno, maybe you mean me too. Maybe my previous post unambiguously denouncing Charlie Kirk's murder wasn't enough for you. As I predicted to @gattsuru way back when, those of us on the moderate/left side are apparently responsible for denouncing unhinged leftists wherever and whenever they occur or we're assumed to sympathize with them. "Silence is violence"?
Or maybe you just mean anyone who votes Democrat or anyone who believes in norms and decency in politics. Because it's very reasonable and rational to track every terrible thing someone vaguely aligned with your opponent says or does and demand a repudiation or else claim they are responsible too. Just like they do on X, a very rational and reasonable place of respectable politics and decency.
Speaking for myself only, I am not a Virginia voter. Jay Jones seems like a disgusting person to me, and I also think Mamdani winning in New York is bad but neither am I a New York voter. If someone ever asked me "Hey @Amadan what do you think of that shit Jay Jones said?" I would have said "Utterly terrible and if I were a Virginia voter I wouldn't vote for him." But no one did because why should they? If my reputation on the forum is not sufficient to make people believe that I do not in fact endorse or sympathize with people cheering for political violence despite my many, many posts to the contrary, I don't know what to tell you. (Well, I do, but nothing I can type as a mod.)
Of course my response here is not a personal defense. I'm charitably assuming you didn't mean me, though honestly I don't care who you meant. What I do care about is that you are angry-posting and looking for a fight with any targets who present themselves and just vaguely gesturing at a group of people you want to spit on. As much as I also dislike @gattsuru's tactic of linking to months- or years-old threads to start fights over them again, at least he points to a specific thing to take issue with. You just seem to be angry and hoping someone will step up to fight you.
Stop it. Stop this snide, sneering, passive-aggressive baiting.
I don't think this was ever going to start any fights. I left the address line open-ended so it might apply to anyone who thinks it might apply to them. I've had a number of conversations with people here over the last six months where they were very insistent that their norms-loving was very even and non-partisan, they're just unfortunately new enough to have never been recorded denouncing a violation from the left (or have ever heard of one, or been able to think of one when prompted).
This seemed like a really great opportunity for those people to build some credibility.
I would be shocked if anyone started an argument over this. I expect silence instead, which I absolutely plan to remember, gattsuru style, the next time certain people insist they are not just engaged in concern trolling.
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Are you talking about me?
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Who are you even thinking of when you say this? Respectability centrist isn't a label I'd apply to anyone here.
In the event you're thinking of me, Charlie Kirk's assassination was Bad with a capital B, Jay Jones' texts were Bad and should have been disqualifying, if people voted for him as an endorsement of those feelings then that is also abhorrent. I'm not sure the latter is true, but I'm also fairly far removed from Virginia.
Are you ready to denounce the bullshit on your side too, or do you get to dodge that responsibility by not identifying as a 'respectability centrist?' Next time Trump does something bad, shall I demand you pop up in the comments to say something about it?
Nah, I know you and would have predicted you taking this stance. You're an actual reasonable person, Chris. I was thinking more of magicalkittycat and wanderinginthewilderness and a few others, newish accounts who get so deeply concerned about civility and norms violations from the right. In my discussions with them, they keep insisting that it's a general principle and they definitely apply it generally, even if they struggle to name a single example. Well, this is a perfect opportunity to build credibility on that topic, isn't it?
And yes, I do try to denounce, not "bullshit", but "actual psycho shit" from my own side. I think it's important to set those kinds of bounds.
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So are you a norm enjoyer or not? Let’s hear the denunciations of Trump and co.
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For a passive that aggressive, you might as well drop @names.
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The VA AG race had some uncertainty after some controversial texts from Jay Jones came to light. The GA wins by the Democratic party candidates are the first time D's have won a statewide state position (as opposed to federal) in 20 years. Sherrill was probably the favorite in the NJ Governor race but it's also the first time the same party has had a member elected governor for a third consecutive time in decades. The NYC mayoral race had been closely watched (at least in my political circles) due to disgraced ex-governor Andrew Cuomo's attempt to run for the seat. First in the Dem primary, then as a third party.
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The political realignment means that the Republican coalition is dominated by low-propensity voters. A lot of these guys show up for presidential elections every four years and nothing else.
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Mandani was a shoo-in.
Virginia flipping all blue was not unexpected, but probably pointing to the growing strength of NoVA compared to the rest of the state.
New Jersey is probably 2-3 cycles away from being a swing state, but Trump is probably too divisive of a character to do that quite yet.
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