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naraburns  nihil supernum  3yr ago (text post)   32550 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 21, 2022

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C19 - Catchall term to refer to various covid mitigating restrictions, not the disease.

Anti-lockdown protests spread to Wuhan, China

In Shanghai, protesters called for president Xi Jinping to step down while others cried out “give me liberty or give me death” in the city of Chengdu.

^LOL, I don't know what to say about that. I can only hope they get what they want.

So looks like it's finally happening. It's too much even for the Chinese. Enough to go out and protest. 3 years is the upper limit to how long you can carry on with the C19 fugazi it seems.

For the uninitiated: It's really a different world in China. They are still treating C19 with an "abundance of caution". Probably infinitely more caution than most places in the world right now. Notice how all of the protestors are still wearing masks, outdoors! The sad part is that I could have made this post anytime in the last year and it would have been almost exactly the same.

I think one of the frustrating things about C19 was how much it felt like Groundhog Day, regardless of where you were in the world, outside of the US Red States and certain Balkan states- C19 Policies were kept around for so long past their expiry date, time became a meaningless concept.

I mentioned Groundhog day because I made a post about China's C19 excessiveness 1 year ago back in the old country. And keep in mind most countries got rid of the bulk of their restrictions at the time of making that post. My post was about small protests in various places in China. And in a year they have changed exactly 0%.

Many speculated on the reasons behind China's doggedness. Ranging from covid actually being bad and them knowing about it.. because they made it ha!; to China just not willing to lose face.

Not many of those reasons make sense now. China is not run by idiots. It's clear as the day the rest of the World looks down on them for this at the time of writing this. And covid wasn't that bad. So what gives?

Are they that high on their own supply? I think this is strong evidence that China's national consciousness is not connected to the "Real World" enough to actually be a threat to the US long term; A criticism often levied at The Cathedral. GDP can only save you so much from cutting your own dick off. There is really no kind way to say this, they are living in fantasy land.

Remember that a good and just world is one where everything that you have ever wished upon another is visited upon you and those you love a thousand times over. That is why the wise and intelligent man does not pray for justice, he prays for mercy.

Wishing good things on your enemies won't stop them from cutting your throat.

It might not, but it does is make you better than them.

Cold comfort if you are dead. Another reason why I despise shonen manga/anime, that kind of thinking can't die soon enough.

Remember that a good and just world is one where...

This sounds like trying to build consensus. Why should I "remember" something that I don't think is true?

I have no good reply beyond that if you should you choose to be both an idiot and an enemy of Christendom I have no ability to stop you.

Don't call people names. 3 day ban

Isn't Christendom having a pretty hard time of it nowadays? Why would anyone worry about being allied with the losing side?

Not as hard as it has seen, and I think it says something about you that you seem to care more about being on the "winning" and "losing" side than being on the right side, but then I should have guessed as much given your user name and flair.

My flair aligns me with an entirely obscure and wholly powerless at the moment political ideal. I only chose it because I think it's the ultimate right side (hardly the winning side at the moment I must admit, though we've got momentum and potential in many areas), even though even I recognize that a conventional organized political movement is unlikely to be the primary mechanism by which its subordinate principles gain any real social influence (should they) and is far more likely, in proportion to my commitment to pursuing it (luckily I've been reasonable thus far about my investment in it, restricting myself solely to online/anonymous rhetorical dabbling in its favor), to make me a martyr than a victor.

Of course it also promises great reward (which is no moral crime*!) beyond "You'll feel good because you... avoided making your enemies feel bad?" It seems to me like that's kind of the natural lottery principle of politics. The more of an immediate long shot (as I actually think at least the partial supremacy of pedofascist-adjacent ideals is not all that unlikely in the semi-mid-to-far future) your goals are, the more you have to offer in return. "Join us in the counterintuitive plan of wishing fortune on those who oppose us, so that if it succeeds regardless... well, we won't do anything because we're the party of mercy." doesn't seem like a winner to me.

To me, a good and just world is one where the correct wish for the incorrect who stand unjustly in their way to reform in time if possible and ideally make as many reparations as possible for all that they've impeded or, absent a reasonable consummation of that, be brutally subjugated and/or destroyed, and have that wish come true. (We have this now; it's just that in my view it's happening in the reverse, with the incorrect persecuting the correct.)

In this world, all sins would be promptly rectified by the fallen if possible in a reasonable time frame (which would greatly shorten around the time our opposition turns into mere dissidents) or even more swiftly rectified for them. I don't want to pray for mercy for myself or my enemies: I want to be the one deciding who grants mercy to whom.

This is not just what I believe either but also what I can only imagine any properly Aryan and masculine (for there is no true masculinity in "turn the other cheek to get slapped again") Christ and Christendom (should it exist, which I'm not convinced it does at the moment, though some past varieties were close) would also believe. So I may be more aligned with the true, non-semitic, and non-Satanic Christendom of an ideal Godly world than you (surely I'll take the Crusaders, who were far closer to what I'm asking for, than whatever you're offering). Deus vult paedofascismus**!

*says non-slave morality (in the Nietzschean sense, which is not an endorsement of his ideas in general).

**Very loose Latin formulation

What exactly is your political ideal? I do not understand your flair.

libertAryan = Valuing liberty (the positive, invigorating liberty of the non-gender-traitorous man seeking the reasonable fulfillment of his masculine birthright, not degenerate or effeminate "liberty") + the promotion of Aryan power and recognition of Aryan nobility (There's a character limit on flairs you see so linguistic economy via pun was necessary here.)

monarcho- = Possessing of a monarch (who would be mostly ceremonial in my formulation unless he has also independently earned via merit the nonheritable position of fuhrer)

pedo = I doubt I need explain the simple meaning of this. The primary effect of its presence here is that under pedofascism all men shall enjoy their natural masculine birthright of sexual age freedom, which means there shall be no age-based restrictions (ages of "consent" for example) on their enjoyment, particularly in the sexual/romantic realm, of their feminine property (which the feminine shall all be due to androsupremacism).

fascism = This would take the most amount of words to explain the exact desired contours of but also probably needs the least explanation of what it's generally aiming at so I'll just leave it.

absolute androsupremacism = Absolute dominance of masculinity over femininity, with the feminine reduced in status to somewhere around/between wardship, pet status, and/or chattel slavery (depending on the exact requirements of the situation)

public choice appreciator = I like public choice theory and think it deserves more recognition, independently of (though also in addition to) my pedofascism. Should pedofascism not be possible, I'm willing to accept an increase in reasonable governance incorporating public choice theory insights as a consolation prize. (Let this not be confused with me appreciating the choices of the public, which I generally absolutely do not.)

More comments

It seems like there's a bit of a Gell-Mann amnesia effect with how people treat 'happenings' in foreign countries. COVID protests in US (or Canada); danger to democracy, but also just a bunch of idiots who know nothing. COVID protests in China? That's DEMOCRACY™ in action, the will of the people.

No you see China didn't use Putin's entirely unrelated invasion of Ukraine to sweep its pointless restrictions under the rug like they didn't happen so it's the bad guy because of them, unlike the prudent West and its wise, Scientific™ agenda which ended them exactly at the appropriate time.

People forget that if China was a democracy it would have attempted to invade Taiwan like five times by now.

I suspect that a democratic mainland would find Taiwan much more willing to re-unify peacefully.

The irony of this comment coming from the Motte's resident CCP cheerleader is sufficient to generate it's own magnetic field.

China's economy was on the rocks before COVID hit, then they destroyed their supply system, and now they're seriously looking at fuel, fertilizer, and food shortages in the coming year(s) due to Ukraine... major ones.

And all this right as their demographics were set to completely implode, and their housing market (the largest market of any asset in the world) had already started to collapse.

China was always attempting a long takeoff on a short runway given how poor they started and how bad the one child policy fucked them, there has been talk for decades "Will China get old before it gets rich?" (and ergo not be able to afford to care for its elderly, crashing its economy)

Seriously in 2012 at the peak of "China will replace us" hysteria, Niall Ferguson, the Harvard historian, was making documentaries about how China had so little runway and risked plummeting off the abyss if it didn't do everything exactly right, Peter Theil has also spoken extensively on this, ditto Peter Zeihan

And now we know both their engines just exploded before they could take off.

.

This is has been an understood thing amongst the Chinese elite for decades... Get your money out, get your kids to western schools and then residency permits... Who knows if it could all come falling down. There's a reason they were buying millions worth of real estate in western cities they let sit empty , they wanted their money the hell out of China.

And now you can't leave.

Beijing has choked off all new permits to leave the country, has restricted removing capital even further, has some of the harshest travel restrictions that have ever existed outside orthodox communist states...

And well you either had really good plans in place and boxes checked before things went belly up, or now you're screwed.

.

The CCP for the longest time acted as if its legitimacy depended on high growth rates, above 10% ideally, above 5% for sure, down to maybe 1 or 0 in an emergency... But THREE years negative!? And under those conditions, the worst years China has had since Tiananmen or probably Moa, that's when Xi Jinping just declared himself ruler for life...

There's a hell of a lot of turmoil everyone expects to Erupt in China right now... like the memes and clickbait are "China's going to collapse this month/week/hour/minute", but for decades very respected experts have been saying "You know china looks strong but it could get nasty real fast if even a fairly routine economic or geostrategic crisis hits it, they don't have a lot of wiggle room" and we've just seen the equivalent of 5 of 6 hard scenario crises hit them in rapid succession.

.

Think of how scared people got with US politics in 2020 how high the temperature rose, lockdown protests, the summer of Floyd, the election, Jan 6th... Think of how many times it was "Wow that could have death spiraled really quickly"...

And then think the US is a wealthy country, that didn't lockdown that hard, could afford to just pay people not to work, the government didn't respond to protests with the need to assert their authority in the most violent way, and even the politicians openly calling each other traitors all pretty much knew they'd all of them retire with their millions.

In China politicians were being executed for partisan corruption charges well before 2019... there's basically no safety net, people die in their homes from lockdown (lack of medicine, food)... Every second there and for the past 2 years has been at a higher defcon level than those first nights of Floyd, or Jan 6 or the first week of lockdown.

Hell we don't know if one the biggest geostrategic events in history has occured, which factions are in charge of Xi, if they've already had lesser coups against eachother that were hushed up...

And that probably the main reason China's doubling down of Zero Covid, sure there's the face saving, and punishing less loyal regions, etc...

But with that much inherent instability in the air it gives the central government an excuse to already have the security state forward deployed incredibly aggressively, already be expanding the camps, already be dragging undesirables out of their homes...

Because if Xi isn't moving against lots of people and moving fast... the obvious question is who's going to move against Xi.

I maintain that the Chinese think this was a biowarfare attack against them. They're using COVID to screen for their biological counterattack.

  1. Dodgy US NGO Ecohealth was messing around with chimeric coronaviruses in Wuhan - 'loses' their files on what viruses they had back in late 2019.

  2. China thinks the US used biowarfare against them in the Korean war, that's their official history.

  3. Conspiratorially minded Chinese elites aren't going to think 'oh it was just random chance: a sick Laotian bat flew to Wuhan and infected a pangolin who infected people'. They're not going to think an American NGO just happened to accidentally leak an extremely dangerous virus in a major Chinese city. Of course, Chinese BSL-4 biolabs are very well run and safe! Why wouldn't the leak happen in America if it were natural? Their most natural explanation is deliberate sabotage from the same country with a history of using biowarfare against them.

  4. They coped with the virus very well in the first two years, squelching it up until Omicron. Chinese death figures are very low, nearly 1000x times less than the US. Even the Chinese can't lie that much.

Given these assumptions, doesn't it make sense to launch a biological counterattack? The US is 100-1000x more vulnerable than China to biowarfare. China has finished setting up all their totalitarian surveillance structure, they've got camps and everything ready. They're 'justified' on the basis that they think the US shot first. If they release something in America, they'll have the advantage of distance and time, something they lacked the first time.

Maybe the MSS is taking their time, ensuring no evidence leads back to China. It's difficult to make it look like an accident and ensure it's lethal enough to be useful. Maybe the Chinese vaccine industry is suffering delays - they have to prepare a vaccine for the new weapon along with their COVID vaccine work. That might explain China's weakness on that front - diversion of effort. The frontline troops for Taiwan will need to be immune to the People's Liberation Plague. Maybe the nuclear forces aren't quite ready - the new subs and missile siloes take time to field. There could be all kinds of things causing a hold-up.

In conclusion, I think Chinese zero-COVID is a rational strategy to buy time for biowarfare and create an excuse for their ultra-high level of readiness. A few small riots and some economic damage are nothing compared to knocking out the entire West in a single blow and securing hegemony in Asia.

They coped with the virus very well in the first two years, squelching it up until Omicron. Chinese death figures are very low, nearly 1000x times less than the US. Even the Chinese can't lie that much.

China absolutely can lie that much. And with such a large population, it's relatively easier to obfuscate deaths. And the west seemed motivated to INFLATE covid numbers, as well. Lots of deaths with COVID, rather than from COVID. Actual COVID deaths are probably somewhere inbetween.

And you might talk of excess deaths, but consider this; China has a lot more deaths of young people from accidents and such. When you lockdown, you have far fewer young people getting killed by machinery, run over in the street, things like that. China also isn't grappling with a drug epidemic. And the average person has a healthy BMI, even the elderly. China would have weathered COVID well regardless of how it handled things. By locking down and making it look like that drove their success, the west was doomed to follow. Telling overweight westerners to stay at home and do nothing was probably the biggest danger to their health.

Agree with @sarker. It seems that even if major powers develop bioweapons, the nuclear truce has held. Why are bioweapons different than nuclear weapons?

Sure you can have deniability, but if Covid-19 were an actual bioattack, it would be a laughably bad attempt. All it does is kill old people who are burden on the system - when China because of the One Child Policy will be hit the hardest by the demographic collapse. If anything Covid is great for China, as it kills older less productive people, and lets the young refill the ranks.

Maybe the nuclear forces aren't quite ready

What does this mean? Is China going to launch a plague, then launch nukes? I'd argue bioweapons only make sense as a deceptive attack, crippling the West before they can strike back with nukes or other superweapons.

Maybe the Chinese vaccine industry is suffering delays - they have to prepare a vaccine for the new weapon along with their COVID vaccine work. That might explain China's weakness on that front - diversion of effort.

This is a far more important argument than you give it credit for. The advantage right now for the US especially is a specialization in research of 'hard sciences,' with biology/medicine being a lucrative and prestigious field. Virology maybe not, but I'd be surprised if Western defense agencies didn't have a much better understanding of viruses than standard academia.

What does this mean? Is China going to launch a plague, then launch nukes? I'd argue bioweapons only make sense as a deceptive attack, crippling the West before they can strike back with nukes or other superweapons.

China doesn't quite have second-strike capability against the US at the moment. They can cause some damage certainly, but a lot of their arsenal could be taken out with a pre-emptive strike. This has implications on the credibility of threats and deterrence. China obviously would want a secure arsenal before taking any risky moves like invading Taiwan. Hence they are building missile siloes and a new class of missile submarines for 2024-25.

I'd be surprised if Western defense agencies didn't have a much better understanding of viruses than standard academia.

I would. Biology and medicine is a huge field, and the vast majority of the research is conducted either in the open (at universities etc., and published in public journals) or by private companies. The US military has some research capacity (Fort Detrick etc.), but it is tiny compared to "standard academia".

Sure you can have deniability, but if Covid-19 were an actual bioattack, it would be a laughably bad attempt. All it does is kill old people who are burden on the system - when China because of the One Child Policy will be hit the hardest by the demographic collapse. If anything Covid is great for China, as it kills older less productive people, and lets the young refill the ranks.

Honestly the biggest frustration of COVID is that it provided a convenient out for the biggest Demographic issue of most affluent states right now and yet every major economy dug the hole even colossally deeper instead of taking the short-term hit to fix their issues.

Last time you posted this (a month ago) I said I'd be happy to bet against a Chinese bioattack in the next year. You didn't take the offer, indicating that you think it's not going to happen in the next year. So when is this going to happen already?

The whole point is that we don't know whether it's a bioattack or not. There's plausible deniability. We live in a world where Daszak and the whole Ecohealth team have not even been arrested! How do you separate bioattack from lableak or natural evolution with great reliability? You can't. Let alone determining that it was Chinese specifically.

There is no plausible universe where I can say 'oh X plague has been proven to be a specifically Chinese bioattack, it's not just American propaganda or whatever else'. I can't get my money if I bet. And if I am right, the money isn't worth very much because we'll have bigger concerns like coughing our lungs out.

Okay, let's bet about a "plague" of any origin coming about in the next year.

If you want to be specific, I'd say 'novel disease kills 500K Westerners by the end of 2025' (about when the Chinese should've finished their preparations). That still excludes the chance that their biowarfare attempt squibs out or gets nipped in the bud. It also excludes them using another novel strain of COVID. I'm rather suspicious of how Omicron had such a huge genetic gap from Delta. What was it doing for those 18 months where it was barely evolving? Trapped in ice, in a lab somewhere?

This is a subject that is very opaque and hard to bet on. Imagine betting on 'US elections are rigged in favour of X'. If they're rigged properly, nobody will be able to prove it. And the definition of rigged can be very expansive, from intelligence agencies suppressing harmful stories to ballot harvesting to making up votes wholesale.

500k Westerners? Covid has killed a million Americans alone despite a 0.1% IFR. Most of the damage came from overreaction than the actual disease.

That's a piss poor bioweapon if there ever was one. If that's the most they can muster even in your imagination we've got nothing to worry about.

Well I was thinking about the time it would take to kill. COVID has been going for 3 years now.

Sure, but it's also a million deaths.

After the first covid death, the USA hit 500k dead in about a year. Again, with a 0.1% IFR.

^LOL, I don't know what to say about that. I can only hope they get what they want.

Laughing at people protesting against tyranny is cruel and small-minded. In my opinion.

I'm laughing at the fact that a Chinese man is using the most American quote of all time given the surrounding historical context that we are living in right now (China hates America more than ever).

There are more dimensions to things than just what's happening at the object level.

this sort of stuff triggers my "made for Western audiences" propaganda alarms

I mean the coverage is what is made for Western audiences, so of course they will use an example that's most recognisable and understandable to Americans, even if most of the protestors wouldn't (and didn't) use that American idiom. I don't find this particularly nefarious or 'propaganda-y'.

particularly nefarious or "propaganda-y" compared to what?

my default position is anything being written about an adversary of the global american empire by corporate media is likely tainted by their influence, i.e., "propaganda-y," so compared to that I agree this isn't particularly so

while others cried out “give me liberty or give me death” i

^LOL, I don't know what to say about that. I can only hope they get what they want.

I don't hope that they get death.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say either is preferable to the most likely outcome: a lifetime spent being reeducated in Correct and Harmonious Xi Jingping Thought at his local inpatient therapy/organ donation facility.

And given how unlikely the liberty part is... I hope it's at least quick.

Not many of those reasons make sense now

when I look at places especially hit hard by the China's zero covid policies, they look to correlate well with power centers of political opposition to the Xi wing of the CCP, e.g., Shenghai

lockdowns are generally harming all of china, but some are being harmed more than others

it appears many Chinese officials ardently and genuinely believe their response works and take pride in it, but I also suspect it continues despite the absurd costs because it comparably benefits Xi's political block

Hundreds of people... for China. That's small. It's basically nothing.

Wikipedia

I would wager there are more than a few hundred given how relatively widespread they are.

China makes gigantic high on their own supply Middle Kingdom complex policy mistakes every 50-60 years or so, this seems like the current example that will hopefully kill fewer people than the great leap forwards/cultural revolution, or the boxer rebellion.

Never... It'd actually be kindof interesting on the 1% this is the thing that Berlin wall's China: The western elite would either have to pivot really fast ,spin hard, or put up with the newly opened China basically being the first of the new generation of revolutionary governments who reject the technocratic class.

Same way monarchist Europe all fretted about Constitutional brittain and then America... then Brittain and the Dutch and the rest became the old guard against republican France... then all the contitutional, repulican, and remaining absolutists all tried to contain bismarkian nationalist Germany then they all were allies almost imediately after ww1 to try and contain socialism... then swung back again to contain fascism... then again to contain internationalist post-war industrialized communism...

Its very likely a chinese revolution would bring in an ideology going hard on right wing Arch-American slogans, the kind our elite loath in their own population, you see it not just in this case but the Hong Kong protests waved American revolutionary slogans, the Chinese Expat and nationalist community, especially the falun gong, is littered with major American-Patriot influence... the Taiwanese swing this way on a lot of stuff.

And right as our own elite are doubling down on treating these as hate symbols, and these sentiments as dangerous extremism... (not to mention what would be revealled if it came out every western figure China was funding or buying off, something the new revolutionaries might tweet out before any of their leaders can tell them no those are their bargaining chips)

.

There's a real chance our elites would try t snuff that revolution out rather than let every ideal they ever scorned coalesce there.

They've long seen the chinese leadership as people like them or even people to be admired (remember all the glowing new york times pieces on how China was a model for how the us should run its economy back in the 2010s?)... And they'd rightly perceive that a full throated movement rejecting the CCP and the Chinese bureaucracy could easily coalesce into a wider movement rejecting them...

There's a reason the US prefers former communist countries to become failed states and only became more aggressive against Russia after it converted to capitalism and nominal democracy... young systems of governments run off ideas, and the most prominent ideas are always the ones taboo elsewhere

There's a real chance our elites would try t snuff that revolution out rather than let every ideal they ever scorned coalesce there.

Our elietes aren't going to look a gift horse like 'China unironically embracing The West' in the mouth. It would be a huge vindication for liberal values. It would be a geopolitical upset.

remember all the glowing new york times pieces on how China was a model for how the us should run its economy back in the 2010s

That was off the back of more liberal Hu Jintao. Xi has proven to be more authoritarian and more inclined to sabre rattle.

Our elietes aren't going to look a gift horse like 'China unironically embracing The West' in the mouth. It would be a huge vindication for liberal values. It would be a geopolitical upset.

I've seen no evidence that our elites hold liberal values, so I don't how China embracing them would be equivalent to embracing the West, and if China went actually liberal, we'd probably see hostilities increase.

The problem is that The West these protesters want to embrace already ceased to exist.

Well jeez, nobody tell them that!

What's left of the west would probably still be an improvement in many ways over what they have right now.

But it would have big ramifications for whether our elites would welcome this new China with open arms. Lets put it this way. Wildest dream outcome for the protesters, Xi is overthrown and a new government founded on individual liberties and the rejection of technocrats replaces it. This would be so appealing to me that I'd immediately start learning Mandarin so I can move there / defect to China.

Lockdowns made... some kind of sense in 2019/early 2020 when we had few other tools and the pandemic could have still turned out to be deadlier based on the reports coming out of China. In the past four-odd years conditions have changed. And anyway, Zero Covid has been a much more unhinged regime than the US lockdown ever was.

lockdowns never made sense at any point w/re to covid; there was zero scientific evidence to support them, lots of historical evidence against them, and the costs were enormous

it's why lockdowns were not apart of any pandemic planning

at best, the people pushing lockdowns were midwit morons who bought into suspicious Chinese claims about covid numbers and control even though they admit those numbers were not independently verified and the Chinese have a history of lying about these precise topics

Can you actually cite the evidence against, please?

weird you didn't ask the other person making the opposite claims for evidence, huh

There's a difference between "I think lockdowns sort of made sense" and "science says that lockdowns don't make sense." (It's that one of those gets called out on not citing sources.)

If you say "there is evidence", you're gonna have to expect people saying "well show it then."

you chose to paraphrase similar statements as different in order to justify your one-sided demand for "evidence"

when you do that, it appears to me to be the attrition game in online comments and not genuine search for evidence (not that it necessarily isn't)

I'm working on a top level comment or post w/re to this topic; when/if I post it, I'll tag you.

you chose to paraphrase similar statements as different in order to justify your one-sided demand for "evidence"

The two statements are:

Lockdowns made... some kind of sense in 2019/early 2020 when we had few other tools and the pandemic could have still turned out to be deadlier based on the reports coming out of China.

And

lockdowns never made sense at any point w/re to covid; there was zero scientific evidence to support them, lots of historical evidence against them

The second of those marshals "evidence" to support itself; the first does not. Claiming evidence and not providing any is worse than not claiming any to begin with.

Looking forward to your post!

More comments

Well the Chinese numbers speak for themselves. Let's say the Chinese are lying and took 10x more deaths than they admit. That means they took 40 deaths per million. Officially they took 4 deaths per million. The US took over 3000 deaths per million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Our too-little too-late omnishambles lockdowns were pointless, the Chinese lockdowns actually worked. I can't imagine that the Chinese could actually cover up three orders of magnitude worth of deaths. How do you conceal that many 'disappearances'?

the chinese numbers certainly do speak for themselves

discussing just how fake they are and making up hypotheticals guessing how off their fake numbers are is a waste of time

I'll concede the 2020 numbers for china were likely similar to the numbers for other surrounding countries which were much lower than much of the West

The US took over 3000 deaths per million.

this metric is plainly dishonest because with and from are not separated and each country uses different metrics to fill in these categories making comparisons very difficult

Our too-little too-late omnishambles lockdowns were pointless, the Chinese lockdowns actually worked.

or china had preexisting immunity to a covid virus which was circulating in 2018

this would explain why countries in southeast asia all had similar numbers irrelevant of their response

I can't imagine that the Chinese could actually cover up three orders of magnitude worth of deaths. How do you conceal that many 'disappearances'?

it wouldn't be "disappearances," it would just be labeling their deaths at something else which, given our experiences in the West in the last few years, it shouldn't be hard to imagine how some deaths can be labeled as something else, e.g., the CDC right now lying and mislabeling tens of thousands of R0-R99 deaths over the last few months and how they mislabeled hundreds of thousands as being killed by covid when the best you could say is they died with a positive covid test in the last month

and when it comes to China and the sheer bulk of people they have, it becomes easier to obfuscate death and causes of deaths because they have far more total deaths per a year than the US, which has demonstrated the ability to mislabel hundreds of thousands of deaths as something else

If your only KPI is COVID deaths per capita, lockdowns are fine. Unfortunately the cost-benefit equation versus practically everything else is hilariously awful.

Let's say the Chinese are lying and took 6000 deaths per million. That's the thing about lying; they're not restricted to small lies.

How do you conceal that many 'disappearances' then?

Just the other day we're hearing about a few hundred people protesting over the strict COVID measures in China. You're implying that these measures never worked at any point if China experienced US-level death tolls. So why did they stick with them? And how are the Chinese concealing 10 million dead from their families, friends, satellites and economic indicators?

People die all the time. Especially old people. If you want to know how many people die, you need mechanisms to collect that information. In China, the government of China controls all those mechanisms.

the Chinese lockdowns actually worked.

That means they took 40 deaths per million.

Makes 0 sense.

Effective lockdowns = Less absolute number of deaths, not fewer deaths per proportion of those who got the disease. What would a lockdown do for someone who is already sick?

The fact that their proportion of deaths is orders of magnitude lower than the Global mean should raise the "China's pants are on fire" alarm, not "lockdowns worked".

E - If it's deaths per population instead death per number of people who got sick then it's back to square one.

E - If it's deaths per population instead death per number of people who got sick then it's back to square one.

?????

I'm talking deaths per million, not deaths per million who got sick! You could easily check this by looking at the stat I linked to.

If you think the Chinese are lying massively, provide some evidence! Are they burning huge numbers of bodies? Did they have a suspicious fall in mobile phone number usage? There's been talk about this - the Epoch Times stated that 21 million phone numbers had been lost, suggesting a very large death toll. Other people have fact-checked that and said there's no way to be sure.

I maintain that if we can hear about a few hundred protestors in Shanghai or various Chinese cities, the world wouldn't have missed hundreds of thousands of Chinese deaths from COVID! These people have families and jobs, they can't just disappear. In Xinjiang maybe but elsewhere?

My bad, I replied assuming the wrong metric.

In which case yes lockdowns did work, given a tortured defining of the word work.

I don't think the optimal covid response involved lockdowns, but that doesn't mean the best case is "midwit morons". A week / month-long lockdown wouldn't have been that bad - even lockdowns as they were just weren't that bad compared to the 200-year history of american political/economic mistakes!

Covid's mortality rate was, on a log scale, only a bit worse than the flu. Diseases with 10-100x higher mortality rates can exist - smallpox, the original SARS, etc - and lockdowns would be justified for those.

A week / month-long lockdown wouldn't have been that bad

Quite to the contrary, these would have been the worst lockdowns. They would incur extreme costs while at best postponing the epidemic for a week or a month. The strongest argument for lockdowns was "flatten the curve" until you compare the capacity of hospitals vs infection rate and find out that it would take years of lockdowns for hospitals to churn through all the cases. Anybody with two brain cells knew that lockdowns will not be there just for a week or a month, that was deliberate tactic in order to persuade population and opposition to accept them. Once the laws and edicts passed lockdowns became what they were.

Also another point that passed by a lot of people was that the early ancestral strain had R0 of around 2.8 and I remember reading about how lockdowns may be able to push that bellow one. The delta strain had R0 of over 5.0 and no amount of reasonable lockdowns or masking could flatten that one: lockdown delta was basically as if no measures ancestral strain. But by then the idiocy was already entrenched, washing of hands, lockdowns and masks were turned basically into religious ritual - something akin to killing cats during plague. Something has to be done, lockdowns are something so let's do it.

lockdowns do not work with flus irrelevant of the cost of them

best case is "midwit morons"

the best case for the people who pushed lockdowns is they're midwit morons who were duped into believing dumb things; it only gets worse from there by assigning them nefarious actions to protect themselves, seize power, etc.

lockdowns were not a part of any pandemic planning guidelines in early 2020 because of their enormous cost and the lack of evidence supporting their efficacy; this was all changed, on a dime, and trying to determine exactly what caused public health derps to launch into a society-wide experiment with incredibly high costs is difficult but it cannot be because of good literature about costs and effects because it did not exist

even lockdowns as they were just weren't that bad compared to the 200-year history of american political/economic mistakes!

what do you think was the economic cost of lockdowns in the USA (which continue to accrue)? if it's not over at least $5,000,000,000,000, we're not being serious about the economic costs alone with those costs continuing to accrue

Diseases with 10-100x higher mortality rates can exist - smallpox, the original SARS, etc - and lockdowns would be justified for those.

smallpox was not stopped with lockdowns and historical evidence does not support the claim they worked at all let alone "were justified"

the original sars sputtered out in almost all places without lockdowns at all making any claims lockdowns were needed to be bunk

your comments rely on assumptions which are simply false; perhaps you can come up with some real disease or make up a hypothetical one which justifies a lockdown

any disease which is deadly enough to justify lockdowns wouldn't need lockdowns because people would voluntarily do it themselves just like they did in the early days of the covid hysteria

the comparison would be between what people do voluntarily and what people do in a government thug enforced lockdown; the more justified a lockdown would be, the smaller the difference in any proposed benefit from the lockdowns

and even if one were to come up with a hypothetical which just-so justifies lockdowns, the history of failure by the public health establishment w/re covid demonstrates they are fundamentally incapable of making the right call and nothing at all which has happened since their catastrophic failure has changed to think they would be any better in the future

lockdowns were not a part of any pandemic planning guidelines in early 2020 because of their enormous cost and the lack of evidence supporting their efficacy; this was all changed, on a dime, and trying to determine exactly what caused public health derps to launch into a society-wide experiment with incredibly high costs is difficult but it cannot be because of good literature about costs and effects because it did not exist

Sources on pre-2020 pandemic planning and the evidence against lockdowns?

the original sars sputtered out in almost all places without lockdowns at all making any claims lockdowns were needed to be bunk

Wasn't the original SARS contained because, unlike COVID-19, people weren't contagious before they got symptoms?

I don't play the sources game for lower comments, but doubly so when the sources demands are one-sided and/or for easily findable materials (e.g., pandemic guidelines in 2019)

Wasn't the original SARS contained because, unlike COVID-19, people weren't contagious before they got symptoms?

no

Many speculated on the reasons behind China's doggedness. Ranging from covid actually being bad and them knowing about it.. because they made it ha!; to China just not willing to lose face.

Not many of those reasons make sense now. China is not run by idiots. It's clear as the day the rest of the World looks down on them for this at the time of writing this. And covid wasn't that bad. So what gives?

Are they that high on their own supply?

Almost every country in the world had leaders powerful enough, and power-hungry enough, to do these sorts of restrictions in 2020 and 2021. Even now-former liberal democracies did them. So I don't think China's policy here has any different motivations. It's just more of the same.

A criticism often levied at The Cathedral. GDP can only save you so much from cutting your own dick off.

Real life is not a 4x, where making your civilians stronger inherently makes you stronger. Rather, Xi (and other leaders) can gain power even as the people they rule over grow poorer. And, ultimately, that is what motivates most of them.

Their "apply huge hammer any time there's been a case or two somewhere" strategy has worked thus far. Sure, they are probably not telling the whole truth about whatever epidemics there have been, but it's unlikely that COVID has actually passed through their society in a big way, like in, say, India; they're still virgin territory, and the reason has been their COVID strategy. There have been spates of large-scale authoritarian measures, but at some point COVID has then gone away, for a while.

Of course there's been a lot of countries that have applied a hard strategy until it was decreed that Covid has evolved to a status where nothing works any longer in keeping COVID out completely, or almost-completely; it's conceivable this simply is the point where China has to admit the same, though that won't stop them from trying for quite a bit.

COVID passed through their society in 2018 and served as an immunity buffer for the wuhan variant as did most of southeast Asia

the reason has been their COVID strategy

the reason has been their covid strategy despite other countries who didn't use their covid strategy with far more reliable numbers and still had similar outcomes in the first year

and other countries which did use their strategy and with far more reliable numbers and it failed spectacularly

your causal statement is simply unsupported

COVID passed through their society in 2018 and served as an immunity buffer for the wuhan variant as did most of southeast Asia

I haven't encountered this claim before. Can you point me to some sources?

why are all your sources! demands seemingly one-sided?

I would actually like to read about it as well. It's a claim I've never heard before and would like to know more. Not to dunk on you. I was against lockdowns from day one. For libertarian reasons mostly. Although now I've realized a few more things about them. Namely that they're historically unprecedented and they don't work as far as any viruses are concerned.

That's fair. Maybe I'm too used to other lower quality websites (and posters) and I shouldn't bring that here. In most of the internet, demands for sources without demonstrating any effort has been put in is a flag the person is playing effort games as opposed to open to genuine dialogue.

Because of the response I received to some of my posts in this thread, I'm working on a submission or top level comments with linked evidence and a filled out argument. When/if I post it, I'll tag some of the users in here who asked for more.

COVID passed through their society in 2018 and served as an immunity buffer for the wuhan variant as did most of southeast Asia

Why didn't it pass through the entire world, then?

the reason has been their covid strategy despite other countries who didn't use their covid strategy with far more reliable numbers and still had similar outcomes in the first year

Which countries?

and other countries which did use their strategy and with far more reliable numbers and it failed spectacularly

Which countries?

Why didn't it pass through the entire world, then?

it did with the epicenter being in southeast Asia

Which countries?

Japan

Which countries?

Italy

Is the support for your causal statement only that reported Chinese numbers were low post frothing at the mouth, people dropping dead in the streets videos?

Not many of those reasons make sense now

I think the whole 'not losing face' argument still makes sense. In fact the more they double down, the more face they have to lose. As @DingleberrySoup pointed out, the vaccination situation over there just makes the stakes even higher for the CCP.

The CCP is, rightly, highly concerned about the public perception around their leadership. If they cop to pointlessly locking down over a billion people for years, including things like forcing workers to stay 24/7 at factories and welding apartment complex doors shut to control traffic, things will get very bad for them indeed.

Yep.

It's one of those policies where you can't just quietly drop it and people might mostly forget.

Dropping it means admitting it may not have ever been necessary, and maintaining it means possibly burning people's patience/goodwill.

And letting the people overturn the policy via protest is just as bad.

Genuinely is no way out that doesn't make the leadership look bad.

Anti-lockdown protests spread to Wuhan, China

It does not seem like much, and I think it's far too early to conclude that this is a harbinger of something more significant. I think the media is over-reporting for clicks .

I would be concerned even if there weren't anti-lockdown protests. Besides, do you trust the reporting coming out of China?

My priors say that it's more likely news of these protests would be suppressed than blasted over the mediascape.

So what gives?

I don't think it's all that complicated. If they lift all restrictions right now, they're looking at a death toll potentially in the millions because their vaccine doesn't work (embarrassing in and of itself), and they're worried that the population will blame the party for this whole predicament (which they should).

The CCP is kicking the can down the road, or digging a hole for themselves. Whichever analogy you prefer.

Okay, millions will die, but so what? These will be overwhelmingly old people dying. Nobody really cares a lot about old people dying: indeed, millions die every year for reasons other than Covid, and nobody gives a shit.

It would have been hugely different if, for example, children were at risk; I certainly know I’d approach Covid much differently if that was the case. Huge death toll of old people, though, simply does not have similarly big emotional appeal and practical impact on society.

Okay, millions will die, but so what? These will be overwhelmingly old people dying. Nobody really cares a lot about old people dying: indeed, millions die every year for reasons other than Covid, and nobody gives a shit.

Old people are the core support of the CCP and their proxies in Hong Kong, Macao etc. People who don't want disruption and just want a quiet, comfortable life where they get the basics and avoid the cruel eyes of the people in power. There's even a term for this kind of existence in Chinese:

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%E9%81%8E%E6%97%A5%E5%AD%90

Such a concept would understandably evolve in a highly inegalitarian agricultural society, as Mainland China has been until very recently. Do the work that the landowner requires of you and no more; avoid being assigned extra work by the supervisor; don't get in trouble. That way, you have a good chance at gaming the calories in / calories out ratio to put on some fat before the next bad harvest or civil war. If you work hard, you will be leaner and at more risk of death when the hard times come, but you will receive little rewards outside of heaven...

The CCP and its proxies have learnt the secret to governing China, which is to keep people doing 過日子 content. The youth will always have their periods of rebellion, the intellectuals can never be trusted, and the ambitious must be monitored within broad limits, but most Chinese people are happy to do the minimum amount of work, play on their phones whenever they can, and obey the copious orders that Chinese society provides for them in lieu of giving them initiative.

If China became a competitive democracy tomorrow (or maybe until yesterday...) I would expect the CCP to win the first elections, because they have the elders on their side. However, mass deaths among the old would severely hurt the CCP in three directions: lost supporters to covid, lost supporters due to elders' resentment at the failure to keep them safe, and lost supporters due to the outrage of the younger generations at the (salient) death of their parents and grandparents.

You ask that question after bearing witness to tons of people suddenly concerned about "killing grandma" (i.e. marginally contributing to grandma's statistically likely demise)?

Old people dying is nothing new. Old people dying in a way that someone can be stuck with the blame for it, on the other hand...

A death toll in the millions from Omicron? I find that hard to believe.

Looking here (select interval --> cumulative and check box "relative to population"), middle of the road looks like 2000-2500 deaths per million, and that's for counties that had the benefit of vaccines that worked to reduce severity considerably.

China's population of 1.4B multiplied by that range yields considerably more than 2M, and that's before you account for an older population and higher rates of smoking. Or putting it backwards, in order to stay under 1M, the would need a death rate under 600pm, which would be 1/4 that of wealth countries.

One the one hand, china’s really old and they smoke a lot. On the other hand, Covid isn’t that dangerous. On the gripping hand, they have to realize that they can’t keep the restrictions up forever and they’re as ready to rip the bandaid off as they’ll ever be.

It's clear as the day the rest of the World looks down on them for this at the time of writing this.

I wouldn't be so optimistic about the rest of the world. I can't tell if the intent is to make vaccine passes the new normal or just to make preparations for the next pandemic (the Indonesian health minister wants to introduce them in May iirc, will find the link once I'm finished my shift), but here's an excerpt from what was agreed to at the recent G20 meeting:

"We acknowledge the importance of shared technical standards and verification methods, under the framework of the IHR (2005), to facilitate seamless international travel, interoperability, and recognizing digital solutions and non-digital solutions, including proof of vaccinations. We support continued international dialogue and collaboration on the establishment of trusted global digital health networks as part of the efforts to strengthen prevention and response to future pandemics, that should capitalize and build on the success of the existing standards and digital COVID-19 certificates."

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/

You can interpret it that way, or you can interpret it as a symbol for facilitating a vaccine travel system that already preceded COVID, ie. yellow fever vaccination certifications and so on, expect digitally and in an interoperable way (and this doesn't necessarily even mean using lack of vaccination to prevent travel, simply that health services in different countries know what vaccinations have been given in other countries, which might be useful medical information any which way in cases of emergencies etc.) Like government speech is wont to be, it's probably deliberately ambiguous.

I think you're viewing this through too much of a US culture war lens. Here we never had any lockdown on par with what was going on in China or some other countries, so complaints focused more on masks and vaccines. In China they're talking about shutting down manufacturing in areas where there are only a handful of cases and closing all shops except grocery stores. Even at the height of the lockdown things weren't that bad in the US, and the height only lasted a couple months in the spring of 2020.

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