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I've said before that I had stopped posting here because it's a purely American Affairs Discussion community and, for a non-American, those affairs are only instrumentally interesting due to their effects elsewhere, and they become less interesting as America recedes from the world stage. The silence on the ongoing global events reinforces my impressions both of the US and of this forum. It's a pity because in terms of the culture war, it's very significant. The Red Tribe basically won politically. Nowhere has this been made more obvious than at the yesterday's session of the World Economic Forum in Davos, that hive of globalists Alex Jones warned us all about. For decades, the narrative around these parts has been that Europe has lost its way, is Communist, is being demographically replaced etc, and only the Serious Big Brother across the Atlantic can steer the ship. Lately there's even talk that Europe is basically «over», and America is what remains of the West, and so the US must take direct stewardship over the imperiled land. For example, one of the justifications for the seizure of Greenland from a MAGA loyalist Scott Greer:
(Needless to say, every accusation is a confession; very soon, Scott Bessent EXPOSED Denmark's treatment of Greenland in front of millions! – according to some Floridian patriot. This propaganda is gaining steam in conservative sources that belong to the American influence network).
I've seen that the rumors of European death are very much exaggerated. Europe very much still exists. But the sensibility of the United States of America on the world stage is now one of openly admitted exceptionalism and essentialist superiority. We've seen the birth of an assertive Judeo-Christian civilization-state with Latin American characteristics, and it's clearly separate from what can be called «Western Civilization». The focal point of the rupture was of course Greenland again.
I mainly want to get the conversaton going so I'll just share some quotes without commentary.
Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce:
This is of course not so much Monroe/Donroe doctrine as invoking Light Unto the nations/Shining city upon a hill with some geopolitical dressing, only cruder, with more stick and less carrot than ever. The reactions are understandable.
Mark Carney, a long-term advisor to Justin Trudeau with all his disastrous policies, was projected to soundly lose the elections to Pierre Poilievre, a very US-style conservative self-identifying as a «simple goy from the prairies». What reversed their odds was Trump's tariff war on Canada plus endorsement of Pierre as his agent to make Canada the 51st state (Poilievre, being a simple goy but not insane, obviously denied any such intention).
Yesterday, Carney delivered a speech that I think ends the North American fraternal relationship and likely the entire post -WWII order. Some excerpts:
Others are saying similar stuff, have been for a while. Merz on the end of the Pax Americana, Macron obviously.
The engagement with China is a common theme, spearheaded by Carney. His partnership with China in particular is prompting Americans to fantasize of seizing Alberta. Maybe that'll happen too.
You really should follow the WEF content on your own to form an opinion though.
The other day @TiltingGambit said:
I am not sure who's going to be American ally in WWIII now. It's my impression that @TiltingGambit has been projecting, because he, as a true American, felt that there is nothing worth learning about affairs of barbarians in China, Europe or anywhere else. This is a very Qing-like attitude. Yes, there's significant consumption of MCU capeshit, we all write in English, Americans are the top content creators on Tiktok, I'm just not seeing how this translates into political loyalty.
So. The costs of winning the Culture War. Any takes on this?
Maybe Europe and Canada should just not resist and be on the MAGA side as it is in their best interests?
This is one of the issues with population replacement. I am fairly sure you are Indian and not native. A semi-shittified formerly western nations subservient to China is just not that bad to you. To native Canadian this should be awful. Canada subservient to China is still going to be better than India as an escape route.
Honestly a very big reason why I do not believe in Democracy. Once you’ve imported different tribes with fundamentally different desires it’s mistake theory. Compromise does not work. And only one side can win. You will always have different political aims than myself. I want to basically protect the shire for myself. You want access to the shire.
Dude slow down. TheMotte is already in a MAGA spiral. It isn't intentional, the forum is well moderated. But, the median individual is a right-wing American and left leaning non-Americans are forced to have thicker skin. We've lost enough intellectual diversity through splinter events. There's no need to make this place more hostile.
Also welcome to the forum. I am one of the Indians here. Please get better at profiling. I await a moderate amount of hate, phrased in a civic manner.
I think different political systems work for different cultures/populations. Pre-2000 USA I am 100% pro-Democracy. Saudi Arabia is an example of a country that Democracy probably would not have been successful in and the Monarchy has been a better form of government. Latam is a region where Democracy has often not been the best form of government. The US demographics have more in common today with Latam demographics than historical American demographics.
Fair. I too have concluded that democracy needs some base conditions to work.
Tribal clan systems (Arabs, Afghans) are incompatible with democracy. Pre-industrial states struggle to balance democracy and essential growth. Democracy and violent societies don't work.
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He's Russian, and any idiot can see that if Canada goes through an economic crisis it will stop being a country, so Carney might talk about the Chinese, but he's not going to pivot. Alberta would leave if Trump actually for real takes the gloves all the way off in an economic war with Canada, and then Quebec, and then a country with some giant holes in it would start to shrink.
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«You are Indian» sure is a new one. I'm 100% sure you must be new here.
Is it the winning side though?
"Actually Indian" can be your new tag.
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There is, famously, an European country that has gone gung-ho for anti-immigrant measures, not only in their country but trying to push them Europe-wide, in the recent decades. The said country is currently at the center of global politics due to being specifically targetted for Trump in this entire Greenland debacle. Clearly the whole idea that these things are somehow connected is just as much a figleaf for Trump's monkey impulses as anything else than MAGA talking heads have attempted to present in an effort of sanewashing.
Moreover, it's obvious that there's a fraction of the American right (a powerful fraction? Who knows, but it tends to become evident in times like this) that just plain hates [Western] Europe. This issue cannot be even discussed, as Euros pointing it out immediately leads to the said rightists going "you're imagining it, you're gaslighting us, nobody here even THINKS of Europe at all [post le epic Mad Men meme here], we just hate cucked European governments, Europeans have always hated us so we're only reacting now" etc etc.
If one was online 20 years ago, the same fraction was hating on [many countries of Western] Europe back then, too, for not joining the Great Freedom Crusade for Freedom, with somewhat different arguments (the word "cuck" hadn't been invented back then, after all), but clearly still similar impulses. Indeed, it seems likely that many of the warblogger readers and Bush diehards of those days are now Trump diehards, doing the same stuff as back then but believing it to be somehow different because Trump is so so different from all the preceeding libs and cucks that it's completely different when the same things happen over and over again.
The European right, or parts of it, shares a part of the blame too - there's been a veritable cottage industry of European RW grifters painting a hysterical and exaggerated image of the situation in Europe regarding immigration, specifically posting in English and not their native languages for an American audience (often since they've already tried their hand in local politics and failed to gain any traction) to get Substack subs and, if particularly successful, even appearances in popular American podcasts or pivots to the American RW think tank / media ecosystem or whatever. It's almost certain that these types and their arguments have also affected the American RW ecosphere, including it's social-media-addicted leadership, creating room for the mindset that leads to the current events happening. Some seem to now be going "C-come on, you guys... it wasn't THAT bad, we don't need all this..."
Happy to be corrected, but IME this is mostly just Twitter ragebaiting and flaming. Same for the "we don't think about you at all" people. The average American likes (white) Europeans and mostly would be pleasantly surprised to meet one in America.
But there are a small but growing number of Americans who have negative of opinions of Europeans after coming into being treated rudely by European acquaintances for frankly nasty and discriminatory reasons. I count myself among this group -- I've switched from unguarded friendliness to cautious optimism when meeting a European. I'm always on guard for some unsolicited jab about "Murka," or obesity , or guns, or something the current president did. I never feel the need to comment negatively on their country, so this always feels a bit uncalled for and tasteless to me. It sometimes seems almost therapeutic, like they're finally getting some long-held grievances off their chest by being nasty to one particular person -- finally, they can settle the score by really giving it to this dumb American, who is more of a living caricature than an actual human being. Charitably, I think this sort of person sometimes just wants to signal that they are aligned with the high-status Americans (blue tribe) who they think enjoy making and hearing such remarks. But it is IMO quite tasteless nonetheless.
I lived in Europe for several years as a young child and really felt at home. I was welcomed and treated like any other local kid after I had mastered the language. And there is no denying that Europe is our spiritual and cultural parent and to this day still exerts significant cultural influence on us. I sometimes wonder if a lot of the "hate" from Americans towards Europeans is less like skin to that felt towards a rival or a foreign enemy and more akin to that felt towards a wayward family member who just can't seem to help himself. Why won't dad sober up? Why won't big brother lay off the pills? It's a sort of wounded love for the Europe they grew up reading and dreaming about as children, the cradle of the Western civilization that produced our great nation, a Europe they wanted to visit and admire, but that increasingly appears to be gone forever.
(I am fully aware of the irony. Physician, heal thyself, etc. Just trying to paint a picture of what might be going on in the Twitter Euro-hater's head.)
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Are these the same groups of people? The sense I get of the type of American who really hates Europe is that they're mostly highly online Gen-Z types. Most of them weren't alive when the GWOT started.
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There are many more Europeans that hate America than the inverse. Americans rightists generally feel bad for Europe.
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I am fairly ambivalent on Greenland. I do think strategically it makes sense to be American since the European military has been highly degraded. With some impulse to rebuild now.
I do like yelling at Europe. And they do seem to be on the path to being a conquered people. I feel like the Ukraine War highlights this. Europe of 20 years ago the war would have been a turkey shoot for them.
I am fairly fine with the US going it alone. We can rebuild Argentina. It’s a fabulous country and Americans probably should be rerouting our vacations in that direction. Our allies should be the people who want to actually reform their countries and have the IQ to do it. If we can get rid of the ADL and political influence makes Israel a great ally too.
It’s not like MAGA doesn’t treat America the same way. Witness Minneapolis.
How about you rebuild the US first?
I am in Argentina now. What I see imported from the US is mainly the style of squalor. The material, artistic and civic culture of the modern US is plainly disgusting. Gigantic soda bottles, barely humanoid blobs waddling around, homelessness, trash, funko pops, capeshit comics, old gas-guzzling cars. No sense of propriety and harmony. It's Latin America, after all, but that's also America, how low-functioning America works. More money won't fix it, and it's not like you have money anyway.
You know America has ten times the GDP per capita of Argentina and six times the GDP per capita of Russia, yes? Like there are reasoned and informed criticisms you can make of the USA. 'Doesn't have money' is not one.
That's precisely the issue. America has GDP and tries to have more GDP. It doesn't have money. It is a country with a chronically negative current account balance, literally $40T in debt, it has less money than anyone. On top of that it consistently has horrible financial discipline and vulnerability to scams and corruption at home. It can't afford to invest into shitholes with dubious ROI, so it does not invest in them and instead robs allies blind, raises tariffs, extorts investment, tries to monetize everything (eg Golden Visa, Board of Peace). Why do you think there exists BRI, but all American attempts to Build Back Better World or whatever have withered on the vine? China has money. America is broke. The main way it can share prosperity around is to deficit-spend buying Argentinian goods. And unfortunately, it already has enough beef and soy.
The American market will swallow up beef at reasonable prices. Even a mild discount vs the very high US cost of production will enable functionally infinite sales. Soy and wine(the most visible Argentine product to the US market is, far and away, malbec), maybe not, but the limitation on Americans buying steak and brisket is budgetary, not consumption ability.
US has been a small beef market for Argentina. 70% goes to China. I'm sure it's not because Argentinian beef is too expensive for Americans right now.
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Are there any well-functioning places left that have those?
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Argentina (at least Buenos Aires) isn't cold enough for vodka and starvation. US-style squalor seems superior anyway.
Superior to certain death? For those homeless, I guess.
But hot places aren't doomed to have so much homelessness. It's mostly economic dysfunction.
Superior to Russian-style squalor.
Sure. When I went to Buenos Aires I stayed in Puerto Madero. The government borrowed shitloads of money to basically make a nice area of hotels and restaurants for tourists, and I doubt they're charging nearly enough to make that make any sense (though I imagine the incoming hard currency is enriching someone). I was in Argentina when they elected Milei, and the prices were still written in dry-erase marker in many places. Crazy stuff... but not surprising from a socialist (Peronist) government.
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Not Europe -- European Blue Tribe, which absolutely dominates European governments.
Euros are about as good at understanding how and why Americans see them through the prism of US partisan politics as Americans are at understanding the nuances of why the Christian-Socialist-Democratic-Party/Liberal-Unionist-Secession-Party/Green coalition in [Euro country] is breaking down over the question of whether state pensions should cover ceiling fans.
I would love a full comment explaining this one.
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I am British, a Reform voter, and fairly pro MAGA (you can read my other comments on here). Trust me when I say nobody wants to be on the MAGA side if it means being Trump's little bitch and giving him any territory he wants at any time in exchange for him not destroying our economies or taking it by force. People were just about okay putting up with Bush-era 'you do what we say and you buy your military stuff from us and we keep bases on your sovereign territory and you go along with our sanctions, and in exchange you get protection + access to our economy + we won't actually come over and fart on your face'.
Removing the last and a good chunk of the second-last part scraps the deal and you will need to enforce it with full coercion and foil all attempts at getting out from under the boot. Which, yes, you have the capacity to do, but it is symptomatic of Trump's foreign policy that he complains about the lack of local populism and cultural protection then immediately makes the parties that agree with him look like cucks.
(Dase is Russian btw)
Have you ever considered that you are a little bitch?
At this point in the American mind you are a semi conquered people. Besides the culture war stuff you just haven’t done anything lately. Your economy sucks. Non-culture war stuff like electricity prices from what I’ve read are double or more than American prices. It’s like being California without having the super productive regions of California that somehow work.
Poland is expected to be wealthier than the UK in 2030:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/07/poland-europe-superpower-communism-putin-military/
When I was a younger man Polish were maids in the UK and sometimes the cute 20 year old wife a balding accountant imported as a wife. UK once a wealthy nation is falling behind countries that were extremely poor in my lifetime.
I think the issue with the Uk is the country has not done anything to earn respect for a very long time. If you want a seat at the table you need to do something.
You need a leader like Thatcher who will just say the Americans are right and we need significant change instead of crying about hurt feelings.
Eh, I don't put much faith in such ad hoc projections. However, markets are forward looking and take into account participants' expectations. The global stock market has long priced in that the UK and EU will likely be small contributors to the worldwide economy in the future, at least by way of their publicly traded companies. And the expected UK and EU contribution has only gone down in recent years:
So not only did the US increase its financial hegemony (in what can be characterized as an inability to stop winning), China overtook the EU and Hong Kong overtook the UK in those 10 years. While these relative differences may be small in terms of the movements from 2014 to 2024 (and can change given market volatility), it does reinforce the notion that the whole city may be center when it comes to "the sick man of Europe" and has been for a while now.
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This is not acceptable. The rest of your post is fine, but you are being deliberately inflammatory.
You have no notes either way on your moderation log. I get that you are using the insult for dramatic effect, and so I am giving you a warning. Do not post like this in the future, or you will receive a ban.
Fair. Though I really liked that phrase and the flair it brought. Though I would say it’s a fair description of what the right thinks of Europe and Europe probably feels like we treat them like that.
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I am making the point, which should be obvious to anybody, that even a little bitch can stab their 'benefactors' in the back and will at the first opportunity. Even dictators realise that you can't keep the boot down all the time and you have to induce some loyalty in the captured populace. Save those whose penis and need to waggle it about is larger than their brain, and they usually meet sticky ends.
And Trump is doing his best to ruin any such person's chances of getting elected. This is why politics requires more than just "HA! AMERICA SMASH!"
I think we are past the point where being “nice” to Europe has any value. Asshole bosses often are successful by increasing pressure. I am fine with having Europe go its own way, but if they want to maintain the alliance they need rapid reform.
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America is a continent sized country bordered by two oceans, a sparsely populated tundra and a third- (although rapidly approaching second-) world country. It has the world's largest patch of arable land, mountains of natural resources, the best river network in the world, and is populated mostly by high-IQ Europeans. You (assuming you are American) are playing with cheats on.
If we're going to assign moral failings to individuals based on the countries they live in, then you are a failson being constantly bailed out by daddy's trust fund.
American wealth explosion hasn’t come from those advantages. Poland, Israel, Australia, Taiwan, S Korea, Japan do not have those advantages.
UK is falling behind a lot of places that lack those resources. You can’t blame the fall of say Jaguar on natural resources. Or the very high electricity prices in Uk on natural resources. The last business plan I knew of for UK was basically to run ME and some Russian wealth but then that got moved to Dubai.
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Mexico is not a third world country approaching second world. It's a solid second world country with pockets of both third world conditions and modern, albeit relatively poor, first world societies. The latter are mostly the ones actually bordering the United States; the former are very far away. This isn't way back when; Mexico is a normal middle income country which has its fair share of problems but is not, like, an actual third world shithole.
Interesting take; I know you're in Texas. The last time I was in Mexico was in the 70s.
I still have unpleasant stereotypes of early 2000s drug cartel victims hung from overpasses in my mind just based on readings and media exposure.
Edit: Second sentence is worded sloppily.
Very high crime rates and an ongoing insurgency driven by organized crime using terror tactics are one of its many problems, yes. It's still far preferred to other parts of Latin America, going by revealed preferences.
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Mexico is not in any way a "second world" country. Those descriptors are pretty much obsolete, but the Second World was the Communist Bloc. Mexico is an upper-middle-income country by modern classifications, same as China.
In conventional use, second world country refers to an industrialized middle income country.
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Reality doesn't grade on a curve. It doesn't matter why the US is great and powerful, or whether it is fair. What matters is that it is, and the UK is not. The strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must.
It's a shame that series of books ends its coverage in 411BC. Dramatic irony like that deserves its payoff.
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I think you misunderstand my (and I think Corvos') point. I wasn't arguing that the US wasn't playing fair. No country has ever played fair, but right now the US is playing stupidly by alienating its allies and neighbours.
Trump will never get Greenland, but he has managed to piss off an entire continent by acting like a petulant toddler because it hasn't simply been handed to him. And as far as I can tell, he only wants Greenland because he didn't win the Nobel Peace Prize and because it looks big on the Mercator projection.
Whatever the US' strategic aims are in the future once the Mad King dies, the country's ability to achieve those aims has been, potentially, permanently damaged.
The Nobel prize thing is probably the most farcical part of this whole circus. If Trump thought that the Nobel Peace prize committee of all groups was going to elevate him with that sort of honour, he's a lot less bright than I thought.
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The UK doesn't have great alternatives just now. Any attempt to build bridges with Europe seems to run into Macron trying to cuck Britain even further. Maybe this sort of thinking is why the current government is being relatively accommodating to China's new embassy?
I would imagine so, yes. Juggling multiple 'allies' is a difficult job and I fully expect the UK to beclown ourselves trying, but we've got to.
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He's Russian, with pretty strong opinions on India.
Yet another time where location flags would be helpful here.
My location flag would display 🇦🇷 (assuming no VPNs, which I often use) and I'd be accused of being a brown third worldist anyway.
tfw when you're a Russian living in one of the whitest countries in the world, but still get accused of being a brown third worldist
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Yes, a Russian in Argentina, an Indian in the U.S., or a Chinese in Canada all render such a system unworkable.
🇯🇵
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A user who wants to put biographical information on his profile page or in his flair can do so in his account settings.
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