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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 11, 2024

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Does Germany abolish itself? https://grauwacht.substack.com/p/does-germany-abolish-itself

Schafft Deutschland sich ab? https://grauwacht.substack.com/p/schafft-deutschland-sich-ab

I analyze the latest PISA results to figure out why Germany's performance has declined so much in recent years. My focus is on figuring out the extend to which changes in migration patterns can explain the decline. I won't post the entire post here because it has a lot of figures and will be disjointed to read. Remember to subscribe!

Introduction

In 2010, the book "Deutschland schafft sich ab" (Germany Abolishes Itself) was created by Thilo Sarrazin. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move. Sarrazin's core thesis on the topic of education can be roughly summarized as follows:

  1. The German birth rate is low, with less than 1.4 children per woman. This is contrasted by a large number of migrants, especially from Muslim countries, who have higher birth rates.

  2. Many migrants have educational deficits compared to the German population.

  3. Even after several generations, these migrants do not catch up with German society. This is due to genetic and cultural inheritance as well as little pressure to integrate.

  4. In the long run, Germany’s educational achievements will deteriorate due to this demographic change.

Sarrazin's critics argued that he was right about some things, but that he painted too bleak a picture and mixed truths with falsehoods. They pointed out, for example, that there had been progress in the area of education among Turks, a large Muslim immigrant group. Against the background of the recently published PISA study, in which Germany performed miserably, it seems appropriate to re-examine Sarrazin's thesis. In particular, I will use the latest PISA study to answer the question of whether, and to what extent, migration aspects play a role in the continuous decline of German education...

I am Steve Sailer's complete shock and disbelief.

I’d ask that you elaborate on this rather than dropping it off as a one-liner.

Anatoly Karlin supposedly concluded from the available data that German average IQ has been dropping since the early 1990s. (Don't quote me on this, as this is second-hand information I have.) I'd also make the unrelated guess that the decline in German average genotypic IQ has begun much earlier.

Anyway, based on this I'd argue that another factor is to be taken into account, namely that lower-IQ German natives likely have a higher birthrate than higher-IQ ones, and that this difference has also been increasing.

To be fair to German society, this is a trend affecting pretty much the entire developed world, and nobody has ever managed to find a solution to it, not even in Singapore.

To be fair to German society, this is a trend affecting pretty much the entire developed world, and nobody has ever managed to find a solution to it, not even in Singapore.

Repeal Luke 12:48.

What would that entail in concrete terms?

We would not scale and overscale burden with capability or achievement. No progressive taxes, no leniency in criminal matters due to being poor or dumb, no extra requirements (often created out of thin air) because "you should know better".

Fair enough. But none of this alleviates the fundamental problem that high-IQ women have on average fewer children than low-IQ women.

It's a major enough change that I don't think you can say that for sure.

This is a function of childbearing serving as a sign of downward mobility in our contemporary age, once upon a time it was cool and good to have kids, lots of em, preferably young

and the servant who was ignorant of his master's will but acted in a way deserving of a severe beating shall be beaten only lightly

I'm sure you have some deep point here. Care to elaborate?

As I said below, we would not scale and overscale burden with capability or achievement.

It did not abolish itself, it is occupied and the occupiers will ensure that Germany is kept in line with their ideology. The Germans knew full well what would happen if the Americans and Soviets would take over the world and there is a reason why they fought tooth and nail to stop it. The foresight of German thinkers in the 20s and 30s was astonishing and they understood the direction the anglosphere was taking.

Are you trying to defend Nazi Germany here?

They were fighting for a homogenous high trust society that was self-sufficient and built to last. They fought against communists and liberals who wanted a centralized global order with bland global materialism. They defended Europe from Stalin and their loss is turning western Europe into North Africa/middle east. Germany would not be in severe demographic decline with large scale third world immigration if they had won. They wouldn't have suffered the cultural decay that comes with Stalinism and bland American consumerism.

While some of what you say may be correct, I feel the need to temper your enthusiasm.

German society had numerous problems in the 1920s. It was shaken up by the effects of industrialization, urbanization, unification and democracy, and even more badly so the first world war and the following economic crises. The country was very troubled and not at all self-sufficient. What the national socialists turned the country into in the 30s and 40s wasn't much better. Some problems were solved, yes, and maybe it even was the nazis' doing, but what they made of Germany wasn't a lasting high-trust society but a totalitarian shithole that steadily degraded its social capital - by replacing Germany's formerly durable culture with the artificial crackpot pseudo-culture invented by party ideologues, by pouring ever-more resources and manpower into military endeavors (one can make the case that this was justified, given the Bolschewist threat, but frankly I think a large degree of doubt is merited here), and finally by ruining what was left of the country's international standing and plunging it into the war that almost destroyed it at the time by the after-effects of which are slowly destroying it now.

For all that I know many at the time may have fought for the country proper, or against bolshevism, but on the whole the fight was corrupted in means and in goals and led to the worst possible outcome short of an actual Nazi victory, because let us recall for a moment that the people in power at the time weren't sagacious guardians of Germany's heritage and future but a bunch of unhinged gangsters high on their own supplies of ideology and drugs and intent on transforming Germany from a real country with a real society populated by real human beings into some nightmare caricature. They might have coasted for some time on the industry of the people and the military heritage of Prussia, but Nazi administrative competence was, frankly, not much to boast of. I have no doubts that whatever social and economic capital Germany had at the time, the political leadership would not have failed to destroy it in due time.

So, yes, I guess they wouldn't have suffered the cultural decay that comes with Stalinism or Capitalism...but instead we would've seen a third flavor of cultural self-destruction.

I appreciate that you have to feel this way because you are German-German, but because I have the luxury of being German-a-few-generations-removed, allow me to suggest that none of the WWI vets who happened to get control of the government afterward were 'unhinged gangsters'

Was JFK an 'unhinged gangster' because his family were literal mobsters and he was constantly high on painkillers?

allow me to suggest that none of the WWI vets who happened to get control of the government afterward were 'unhinged gangsters'

I'd suggest that at least one was.

I like Hitler and think he was genuinely kind of a nice fella

I "have" to feel that the great sin of Germany was what it did to the Jews, Cripples and Gypsies. I do feel that the greatest sin of Germany back then was what it did to Germany and the Germans.

As for those WWI vets, you can validly suggest that they weren't all unhinged gangsters, but I will insist that more than enough of them in positions of great power were, and this includes big names like Himmler, Göring, the non-veteran Göbbles and Hitler himself, and a thousand lesser party barons who managed to escape post-war condemnation only because they lorded it over the Germans instead of bullying foreigners or minorities. Some more unhinged, some more gangster, some perhaps neither but alas the the party was top-heavy with unhinged gangsters and the top had the last word on acceptable behavior.

I'm fine with denouncing the common depiction of the Nazis as fundamentally evil, fine with admitting that they did some good, fine with any claim of there being worse things in the world than Nazis, fine with theories that posit that Fascism may have good points, but not fine with attempts to whitewash those particular Nazis as saviors of the Germany they destroyed in their mania and incompetence.

Look at their mismanagement, the purges, the wealth accumulated by party functionaries, and the ground-level stories of German peasants and tradespeople being bossed around and told to shut up and get with the program or else, and look at the total and utter catastrophe that was WW2. It takes a lot of revisionism to clear them of the blame for that. You can, if you like, completely ignore the horror stories of concentration camps and death squads or any principled objection to authoritarianism - there's still more than enough left to condemn the Nazis in general both for what they attempted and for what they ended up achieving.

And I honestly don't know enough about JFK to answer your question.

Churchill was the one who declared war. It was his choice.

Edit: This wasn't meant to seem curt - sometime though brevity is the soul of wit. Yes, perhaps if the Junkers or some other more traditional conservative faction had risen to power rather than such a reactionary party, Germany may have done X, Y, and Z. But it seems crass to me, almost prideful, to look at the 'unhinged gangsters' who 'volunteered' to beat the Spanish communists and then got the band back together in the Rhineland, Osterreich, the Sudetenland, Danzig, etc to give the Bolsheviks a genuinely good go and say 'if only!'

Yes, they lost, but they fought! By Jesu they fought. And it's just as easy to say 'it would've been better if they hadn't' as 'it would've been worse.' Maybe the Bolsheviks would've won in Spain and then later pushed through all of Europe to the Atlantic.

It's not unlike when Barbarossa drowned on the way to the Third Crusade. Yes, it's a bit pathetic, and we can poke fun at him for drowning (because he is our ancestral hero). But he chose to go! He chose to fight! That he happened to drown when someone else might've not and (swamped the saracens) instead doesn't make him an 'unhinged gangster'

Churchill was not prime minister when England and France declared war on Germany.

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Yes they fought, but their having fought no matter how much and how well doesn't save the Germany of today. We can trace our unmaking right back to them. Barbarossa, for all of his ineffectual campaigns and fruitless labors, left the Germanies roughly in the state he found them in. The Nazis took a struggling Germany and, for all the little glories they won, burned it right down to the ground and left the withered remains to the mercy of the victors. Certainly perfidious Albion had its schemes and probably quite a laugh at our fate, perhaps on can believe that Hitler himself would have preferred peace with them, but in the end they played Realpolitik and they did a hell of a lot better a job of not bringing their own countries to bloody ruin.

Unless you subscribe to some school of thought that completely denies the significance of consequence, I find no way to absolve the people who had complete authority over the country from complete responsibility for its destruction. Whatever our enemies might have done, however justified any given aspect of German military campaigning was, given that kind of authority those kinds of results speak for themselves.

And so as to not neglect the Unhinged Gangsters bit - I stand by that. Something like the Night of the Long Knives is decidedly ungerman.

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Germany could have not invaded Poland.

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It's not unlike when Barbarossa drowned on the way to the Third Crusade. Yes, it's a bit pathetic, and we can poke fun at him for drowning (because he is our ancestral hero).

Are you even a German? You talk like an American with some far off German ancestors, who has no real connection to the country or it's culture. You also idealize Germany, and attack the Anglo world, like someone who knows the faults of the Anglo world first hand, but has no real understanding of what Germany was like then.

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Churchill was the one who declared war. It was his choice.

That's certainly a take, and a depressingly common one around here it seems.

Setting aside the fact that Churchill didn't even become prime minister until May of 1940, I'm just going to reiterate what I said the last time this topic came up a month ago.

Hitler's diplomatic position in August of 1939 was essentially that of a belligerent drunk at the bar who keeps getting in people's faces and asking "Oh Yah? Watch'ou goanna do about bro?" and then acts surprised when someone decides to "do something about it".

The Nazis were already on thin-ice for continuing their territorial expansion post Munich, rebuking the Anglo German Naval Agreement, and harassing neutral shipping in the North Sea wich the British regarded as their back yard. If they didn't want a war with the British, they could have easily avoided it by not doing any of those things and more critically by not aligning themselves with the Bolsheviks against a country that both the British and French had a security agreement with.

Edit to add: That last bit in particular also demonstrates that all that talk from current year nazis about "racial brotherhood" and "opposing communism" is a crock of shit.

For all the talk condemning "brother wars" Prussians seem particularly prone to engaging in them and as much as I want to make a joke about Martin Luther being to blame I'm worried about someone falling into the same trap I almost did with @Southkraut's comment down thread where I almost chewed them a new one before I realized they were being facetious.

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Hitler declared war on Poland, in the face of explicit threats by Britain and France to join such a war on Poland's side. He could have just, y'know, not done that, and if he had he'd be remembered as the second Bismarck for the Anschluss and Munich.

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Churchill was the one who declared war. It was his choice.

It would be pretty hard for Churchill to declare war in 1939. You might not know as much about WWII as you think.

Before the sailors' mutinies and revolutions of November 1918, Friedrich Ebert, the leader of the Social Democrats, made the proposal, or so I've heard, for the emperor to abdicate in favor of his son, to negotiate a ceasefire, and to reach out to the US government to sue for a separate peace, as a first step of terminating the war and salvaging a defeated nation. This was probably the only conceivable path to preventing the ensuing national catastrophe, but the emperor decided against it. And from then on, the republic that came into existence only had enemies in the country, save for small-r republican Social Democrats, who were always a political minority. And this republic was never going to be a European bulwark against American and Soviet hegemonic tendencies. This story was always going to end in disaster, I think.

I think the Weimar republic would have survived if Gustav Stresemann had been able to turn the DVP into an effective centre-right party. Crucial to the fall of Weimar is that all the right-wing forces except the DVP (which never moved beyond a niche party for eccentric rich people) and the Bavarian regionalist BVP (which didn't organise outside Bavaria) wanted to destroy it.

Building an effective centre-right party after the Versailles dictate is implemented is sort of difficult.

bland global materialism

[...]

bland American consumerism

Evidence for Benjamin's claim that fascism is the "aestheticization of politics"?

If there is inevitably going to be a pop culture it would be better if it were cultivated with a purpose by some kind of class with a proper education and righteous intention to direct the people in a particular, intentional way.

The reality that this 'eureka moment' of great truth inevitability leads us all to getting thrown in gulags instead of creating a utopia driving the culture in 'purposeful' directions is why we're all here talking about exactly this.

This sort of romantic neo-nazi image is ridiculous. The Nazis were not high trust. In fact they were the total opposite, a heap of the most venal, odious, dishonourable bandits to ever come out of Germany (which is saying something). They had no concerns for honour or trust or mercy, no respect for the traditional religion of Europe, no respect for the ancient peoples of Europe. They started vast wars over money and land, lied habitually, ran a horribly corrupt state built on exploitation and outright slavery, and slaughtered millions.

Nor was their state really ever intended to be self sufficient. From the start, the intention was to loot, conquer and subjugate their neighbours. Indeed, the German nationalist project was mostly complete by 1938 with the annexations of Austria and the Germanized regions of Czechoslovakia, and scarcely a peep from the Allies. But the Nazis dreamed of imperial domination and glory, not self sufficiency. Instead of rallying the nations of Europe against Bolshevism ( an easy task), Hitler squandered his credibility. By the end of WWII even anti communists like Churchill were drinking with Stalin, and it was left to the US to establish an anti communist front in Europe - well, the half of it that was left.

It's interesting because we have a much better example of reactionary "we don't do globalism here"autarky from the 1940s - Franco, who carefully avoided entanglement in either WWII or the postwar international order. That didn't work either, but he failed with more grace and less bloodshed than Hitler.

It's interesting because we have a much better example of reactionary "we don't do globalism here"autarky from the 1940s - Franco, who carefully avoided entanglement in either WWII or the postwar international order. That didn't work either, but he failed with more grace and less bloodshed than Hitler.

It's darkly funny that the first thing Franco did after (according to Franco) preventing a communist revolution in Iberia was implement a disastrous, ideologically motivated economic policy, causing a massive famine which killed hundreds of thousands of people and miring Spain in dire poverty for two decades. It's like that Spongebob meme where they're celebrating while the city burns in the background, "we did it, Hitler, we saved Spain from bolshevism!"

The difference is that Franco learned from his mistake and Spain converged with western standards of living over the latter half of his reign.

So did the Red Chinese but I wouldn't give them props for that.

I would, actually, give deng credit for economic growth, although less than Franco because he never caught up with his neighbors. The gulf between the PRC and Japan/South Korea/Taiwan is much bigger than the pretty small Spain/italy gap.

Franco didn't have that much of a choice after 1945.

The policy discussed was implemented from the late 1930s, not 1945.

Well, yeah, thank you very much, you’re indeed correct that Franco’s austere policy of economic self-reliance and self-reinforcement was akshually implemented from the beginning. I’m no economist, but I’m pretty sure that a liberal economic policy of free trade, foreign investment, wide-ranging reforms and growing interconnectedness isn’t feasible when a) the entire continent is engulfed in all-out war b) you are an isolated and detested pariah in international politics because Hitler and Mussolini militarily assisted in your seizure of power. I didn’t state this in detailed terms because I assumed most visitors here understand this, and I didn’t want to post a verbose reply. Again, excuse the snark please.

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I don't know about famine. I knew the autarky years were very rough for Spain, especially coming after years of civil war.

turning western Europe into North Africa/middle east

The whole western world. In 1950, Europe was twice the population of Africa. Today it's half. I have a friend in a fairly high position who told me how they're worried about what happens when the gigantic populations of sub-Saharan Africa start migrating to more temperate climates. Racism, climate change and replacement migration - the blankslatist-economic/progressive-moralist logic is clear. They've basically made up their minds about what's supposed to happen. They see it as their role to manage migration, ensure things don't get out of control - there's no concept of saying 'no' - that's too far-right, it would be too hard to oppose all the civil society NGOs, there'd be judicial review if you want to send them back...

You can see it in Biden's crowing about how the European descended white population of the US fell below 50% back in 2017 (US defines white more expansively), how this was the source of their strength. No more white European civilization and that's a good thing. Same in Eastern Europe. You've got the US embassy in Estonia pushing multiculturalism. Poland's fertility is well below replacement and they're in the EU - they're not going to be spared.

Allied victory in WW2 cemented the blankslatist-progressive ideology as the official doctrine of the Western world. Even China and Russia give it lip-service. It's ironic, there's an entire book of letters from British servicemen, (Unknown Warriors) most of whom bitterly regret how things turned out. They resent how the nation they fought for was replaced, how Britain's full of ungrateful foreigners and violent selfish yobs, how the politicians betray them with constant doubledealing and corruption. Reaping the spoils of victory!

Even China and Russia give it lip-service.

you seem to miss that for decades, communists in those countires were pushing blankslatism, it is very recent that USA went further than them

Counter-point, in order to establish a high trust society one must establish trust, a resource that Hitler and friends seemed to be particularly bent on squandering.

They wouldn't have suffered the cultural decay that comes with Stalinism

Cultural decay? Stalinism was well known for pushing classical art, music, literature, theatre and ballet to the masses, whether the masses appreciated it or not.

and bland American consumerism.

LOL. Whatever pure Aryan kulchur would victorious Reich produce, it would be as helpless in face of American art and music as Soviet culture was.

As long as you have the will to send to concentration camp anyone caught with unauthorized radio or bootleg negro music records, you can stop the tide with brute force. As long.

Not OP, but I'll defend 'Nazi Germany' every day and twice on Sunday if you like

The tricky thing about WW2 is that, from a reactionary perspective, all three sides of the showdown were bad — communism, fascism, and new deal democracy all represented a flavor of progressive managerialism attempting to mobilize and rationalize their citizenry in a grand unconstrained-vision project. Of the three, democracies may well be the least bad. However, from a narrowly American or British perspective, our corners of the globe might perhaps be nicer had we not gotten involved, and the fascists won a grueling victory in Eastern Europe that completely exhausted them. (Keep in mind I don't countenance the possibility the Axis could have conquered the world afterward; if you do, this perspective may seem alien.)

The Greater American Empire created in the wake of the Allied victory destroyed the sovereignty of its member states, then birthed a technocratic antiracist transnational ideology that is, as we goof around on the motte, desperately trying to flatten the world and reshape all nations in its image. I think this was inevitable in the same way that, once complex multicellular organisms formed, it was inevitable that individual cells would lose autonomy and act according to a nervous system's command. This is the version of "bad" reactionaries live with.

Naïve moderns with a reactionary bent perceive that the winners of WW2 created the regime they live under. Thus, there is a natural tendency to contort oneself into seeing the other side of that conflict as a great lost cause, and to project one's values onto it.

I don't think this is a good comment. It just gestures at a bunch of vague right-wing ideas without providing any detail, evidence, or new information. An equivalent left-wing comment would be "America is occupied by the entrenched forces of conservatism and racism. They know what they are doing, they see our pain, yet they refuse to even let us speak. They hold all the levers of power and are not afraid to use them against us."

It probably violates the "speak plainly" rule too. Who are the occupiers? How are they keeping Germany in line with the new ideology? What would happen? Which german thinkers? Which direction? Yeah, obviously it's the nazis, but I'd be happy to read an open and evidenced defense of Nazi ideology or historical actions, but this isn't that.

I disagree. It doesn't gesture, it directly says what it says.

You are trying to censor an opinion you disagree with. He is saying that the Nazi Germans had foresight about the consequences of a world dominated by USA and Soviets . What is there that isn't plain? I am not saying that view is correct, but it isn't violating any speak plainly rule.

You should simply directly argue your opposite opinion including your disagreement with that poster's apparent sympathies for mid century Germany.

I'd be happy to read an open and evidenced defense of Nazi ideology or historical actions, but this isn't that.

And? It doesn't have to be.

No! I'm happy that we allow Holocaust deniers or the (iirc) nazi pedophile from a while ago to post if they follow the rules. But that's the kind of comment I'd expect to see as a reply to iamyesyouareno on twitter, not one I want to see here.

If you don't like their opinion, you should argue about it and not try to censor it by trying to manipulate the rules. Personally, I am much more outraged about people's views excusing warcrimes that happen now than any of the view about 80 years ago.

On the specific issue, I have both a negative view of historical nazis, and the nazi derangement syndrome types who have excused all sort of extremism on the basis of antinazism and try to take the opposite extreme view. There really has been a problem with destructive extremism of American liberals and communists in general, including in their cooperation in the 1940s, but also how they behaved separately while the nazis are also a group that should be seen as a warcriminal group, and not as Europe's defenders.

If under someone's analysis Europeans on the long term would be even worse off with the liberals than if the nazis won WW2, that is an indictment of liberals, and doesn't wash out the crimes of the Nazis against european ethnic groups. However, I also don't think trying to ascertain that is illegitimate, or extreme. This isn't what the person you are replying with were about, since they had an one sided pro mid century german view, but censoring the discussion, also helps excuse the extremism of liberals.

If the rule by so caled liberals, leads to the destruction of Europeans, then that is something insanely negative about liberals, and how the post WW2 order evolved. That matters when talking about how valid the good vs evil narrative is, and how good USA, one of the victor of WW2 has been.

One way to understand how I'm not trying to censor is that I invited OP to make a more detailed and direct defense of whatever the nazis were doing.

nazi pedophile

That's a whole new kind of "mixed race and belongs in neither camp" lol

Chomos are the lowest of the low and I think the pedos think the same of 'nazis'

The Nazi paedophile was komm-nach-unteralterbach. And I'm not badmouthing him by saying that; this is his literal flair-text:

transhumanist libertAryan monarcho-pedo(anti-agecuck)fascist/natsoc + androsupremacist (unironic)

Unfortunately, he disabled search-by-poster.

Jesus wept. Just in case you happen to read this buddy, drop me a line, let's talk

Are you asking for a PM conversation with me, or KNU?

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Nonsense. The Soviets never demanded high immigration from their puppets. Likewise, the Americans (at least those from the 1950s) didn't demand high immigration either. The "import third worlders en-masse" agenda is from the woke bug that bit all Western societies in the 2010s. There are no treaties or diktats you can point to where immigration is "forced" on Germany by the US. Maybe there's some bit in there about the EU pushing it, but Germany under Merkel was at the forefront of accepting refugees with the "we can do this" mantra.

I'll also chime in by utilizing the Akshually... meme unironically, by pointing out that Japan was also under de facto, and is under practical US occupation, and yet mass acceptance of immigrants and refugees never became the norm there. More or less the same applies to South Korea and Taiwan.

Very good point! Yes, Korea and Japan arguably make the point even more clearly and succinctly than my examples.

I happened to be out to lunch with a client yesterday, as fate would have it, who was a Japanese fella who had just visited his uncle, a hiroshima survivor, who was on his death bed in gratitude the yankees occupied them instead of the soviets

I don't know, Wikipedia at least says that the US pressured Germany to accept gastarbeiters from Turkey:

The first guest workers were recruited from European nations. However, Turkey pressured West Germany to admit its citizens as guest workers. Theodor Blank, Secretary of State for Employment, opposed such agreements. He held the opinion that the cultural gap between Germany and Turkey would be too large and also held the opinion that Germany didn't need any more laborers because there were enough unemployed people living in the poorer regions of Germany who could fill these vacancies. The United States, however, put some political pressure on Germany, wanting to stabilize and create goodwill from a potential ally. West Germany and Turkey reached an agreement in 1961.

The source is in German so I can't follow it up, though I do remember seeing this asserted in other places over the years.

Technically that was in 1961 and not the 1950s and the Turks aren't "third world" but if true it would support the core claim that the US intentionally tried to push diversity on its puppet states via the mass importation of non-western people.

I can't find the source from that wikipedia article but if you tag it here I will (attempt to) translate for us

Also Germany was the bad guy in WWI because they teamed up with the Ottomans (Turks). After a thousand years of enmity they teamed up with team bad guys. Big no no

The Anglos and French did that first in the Crimean war, though.

Austro-Hungarians also did it sometimes, still not great. In a game of 5 better to be on the team of three without the muslims

There's a massive gulf between a one sentence line in Wikipedia saying the US put "some" quid pro quo political pressure on Germany to accept some Turks in the 1960s, and the claims of European right-wingers who imply all nonwhite migration to Europe is a diktat enforced top-down by a brutal US occupation of the continent.

if true it would support the core claim that the US intentionally tried to push diversity on its puppet states via the mass importation of non-western people.

It wouldn't, because the intention of the US, according to the text you quoted, was "wanting to stabilize and create goodwill from a potential ally." That Turks were so different from the Germans was an inconvenience from a US point of view, not a goal.

intentionally tried to push diversity on its puppet states via the mass importation of non-western people.

wasn't really about diversity, and more about internal issues in turkey.

The "import third worlders en-masse" agenda is from the woke bug that bit all Western societies in the 2010s.

It was the Hart-Celler Act of 1965

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1965

Mass migration started happening in the USA earlier, to be sure, but it was generally seen as a problem. It wasn't until the 2010s that people started pushing for open borders in practice if not in name, and this got transplanted to Europe to cause the chaotic migrations of 2014-2016.

Yeah okay, I'll buy that, open-faced 'the great replacement is a good thing' was about when you're saying

Mass non-Western immigration in Western Europe begins before 1965. The Empire Windrush docked in London in 1948. The first large wave of non-Western immigration to post-war France is Vietnamese who collaborated with French imperialism moving to France after Vietnamese independence in 1954, with another wave following after Algerian independence in 1962. As discussed below, the largest batch of Turkish Gastarbeiters arrived in Germany in the early 1960's.

Although there is a story about the need for cheap labour, in the British and French cases it looks like an accident rather than a well thought-out policy. The official policy of the 1945 Labour government was to discourage Caribbean immigration, but there was no way of prohibiting what was at the time domestic migration within the British Empire without causing a row that would blow up the whole Empire. The French situation is similar, with most of the early immigrants being what the French government considered to be loyal Frenchmen regardless of their skin colour.

Unlike the US, the 1960's is when the British start to restrict immigration with the 1962 and 1968 Commonwealth Immigration Acts. The UK reopens for mass immigration under Blair in 1997. Something similar happens in France 10 years later, with immigration laws being tightened in 1974 and loosened by Sarkozy.

In other words, the timings don't match up for mass immigration in Western Europe to be an extension of American policy. The wave of immigration permitted by the Hart-Cellar Act coincides with the pause in immigration in Britain and France. If you believe in the cheap labour theory of immigration politics, the explanation for this is easy - the role of cheap migrant labour in the US was filled by blacks moving north to escape Jim Crow.

You write well, thanks for this

The UK reopens for mass immigration under Blair in 1997.

Immigration began rising earlier in the 1990s under Major, didn’t it? The nadir was in the early ‘80s, but there was still substantial immigration from the third world throughout the 1975-1997 period.

The difference is that it doesn’t show on the now all important ‘net migration’ figures primarily because there was substantial emigration of 200,000+ a year through much of this period, often to Australia and elsewhere, most of which was natives.

There is a long period of negligible net foreign migration in the 70's and early 80's. There appears to be a glacial slow uptrend in both gross immigration and net foreign immigration between about 1985 and 1997, but the data is too noisy to say when it begins. See figures 1.1 and 1.2 (which should, but don't, match) in this old ONS report. The ONS have since stopped publishing immigration statistics from before 2010 because it became clear that the numbers were such poor quality - in particular they are not stock-flow consistent when cross-checked against the census. But you don't need high-quality data to see the increase after 1997, which was deliberate government policy.

I remember that non-refugee immigration was not a political issue during the Major administration - there was a tabloid panic about the number of people claiming refugee status in the immediate post-Cold War period, but the numbers peaked at about 50,000 refugee arrivals per year and about 20,000 asylum grants.

Nonsense. The Soviets never demanded high immigration from their puppets. Likewise, the Americans (at least those from the 1950s) didn't demand high immigration either. The "import third worlders en-masse" agenda is from the woke bug that bit all Western societies in the 2010s.

Most of the non-Western immigration to Europe is not due to any of that, but rather the need of labor hitting all Western societies after decades of low fertility.

The Soviets never demanded high immigration from their puppets.

No, they just forcibly relocated people within their puppet states.

True, but it's also true that the Soviets were hardly trying to flood East Germany with Third World immigrants, which was his point.

just another random drive-by

If you're gonna reppost your substack piece here, please at least put in the effort to copy the whole contents of the post into your toplevel. If Ymeskhout can do it, you can too. And maybe less of "Remember to subscribe"?

Nice, a submission statement. Even if it is just part of the text itself.

As for the story itself - "surprising nobody". Still, thanks for running the numbers.

How much of the educational gap is due to IQ differences, how much of those IQ differences is due to inbreeding depression, and how quickly does a population begin to recover from inbreeding depression?

Islamic cousin marriage declining can plausibly lead to higher educational attainment for the next generation, at least so it seems.

I wonder if such recovery is even happening in Germany.

Apparently inbreeding is not necessarily a problem if the input population is healthy enough, because it just reinforces existing traits. Goats, for an example that's easily accessible to me, will almost inevitably make new goats with their siblings if left to their own devices without much trouble

But if you're starting with unhealthy goats, whew boy

The other issue is genes which are adaptive when you have a single alelle but maladaptive when you have both. Sickle cell disease is the clearest example I can think of--people with both alelles have sickle cell disease, but people with just one alelle don't have any symptoms of the disease and are much better at surviving malaria.

I expect there are countless such genes with greater and lesser effects and incest brings them all out. The reverse is also true, perhaps the population will be benefitted by increased prevalence of certain genes, but the prior should be that any given mutation is more likely to be harmful than helpful.

Note that inbreeding itself is a good way of weeding out harmful-in-homozygous alleles via increased homozygosity, so in a population that's been doing inbreeding for ages you'd expect such a reduction in inbreeding depression.

you also lose alleles that are actually beneficial in heterozygous combination this way

Cousin marriage is more common in Turkey than in Europe, but much less common than it is in eg. Pakistan.

Last week, Anthropic released a new version of their Claude model. Claude 3 comes in three flavors:

  • Haiku, the lightweight 3.5-Turbo equivalent
  • Sonnet, basically a smarter, faster and cheaper Claude 2.1
  • Opus, an expensive ($15 per million tokens) big-dick GPT-4-tier model.

Sonnet and Opus should be available to try on Chatbot Arena. They also have a vision model that I haven't tried, custom frontends haven't gotten a handle on that yet.

More curiously, Anthropic, the company famously founded by defectors from OpenAI who thought their approach was too unsafe, seems to have realized that excessive safetyism does not sell make a very helpful assistant - among the selling points of the new models, one is unironically:

Fewer refusals

Previous Claude models often made unnecessary refusals that suggested a lack of contextual understanding. We’ve made meaningful progress in this area: Opus, Sonnet, and Haiku are significantly less likely to refuse to answer prompts that border on the system’s guardrails than previous generations of models.

From my brief experience this is not mere corpospeak: the new models are indeed much looser in terms of filtering and make noticeably less refusals, and people consistently get away with minimalistic jailbreaks/prefills for unPC, degen-adjacent or CHIM-pilled (lmao) content. This was quite unexpected for me and many others who, considering how barely-usable 2.1 was without a prefill and a decent jailbreak (all this via API of course, the official ChatGPT-like frontend is even more cucked), expected Anthropic to keep tightening the screws further until the model is 100% Helpful-Harmless-Honest by virtue of being totally unusable.

Instead, Claude 3 seems like a genuinely good, very much usable model. Sonnet and especially Opus went a long way to fix Claude's greatest weakness - its retardation subpar cognitive abilities and attention focusing - with Opus especially being almost on par with GPT-4 in terms of grokking and following instructions, able to run scenarios that were previously too instruction-heavy for it. Seeing as Claude 2 already had a much higher baseline writing quality than the mechanical prose of Geppetto (to the point many jailbreaks for it served to contain the mad poet's sesquipedalian prose), with the main flaw somewhat corrected it, while not a decisive GPT-4 killer, should now be a legitimate contender. Looking forward to trying it as my coding assistant.

OOC aside: Forgive most of my examples being RP-related, I am after all a waifutech engineer enthusiast. That said, I still think without a hint of irony that roleplay (not necessarily of the E kind) is a very good test of an LLM's general capabilities because properly impersonating a setting/character requires a somewhat coherent world model, which is harder than it sounds, it is very obvious and - for lack of a better term - "immersion-breaking" whenever the LLM gets something wrong or hallucinates things (which is still quite often). After all, what is more natural for a shoggoth than wearing a mask?

This has not gone unnoticed, even here, and judging by the alarmed tone of Zvi's latest post on the matter I expect the new Claude to have rustled some jimmies in the AI field given Anthropic's longstanding position. Insert Kenobi meme here. I'm not on Twitter so I would appreciate someone adding CW-adjacent context here, I'll start by shamelessly ripping a hilarious moment from Zvi's own post. The attention improvements are indeed immediately noticeable, especially if you've tried to use long-context Claude before. (Also Claude loves to throw in cute reflective comments, it's its signature schtick since v1.2.)

Either way the new Claude is very impressive, and Anthropic have rescued themselves in my eyes from the status of "naive idiots whose idea of fighting NSFW is injecting a flimsy one-line system prompt". Whatever they did to it, it worked. I hope this might finally put the mad poet on the map as a legitimate alternative, what with both OpenAI's and Google's models doubling down on soy assistant bullshit as time goes on (the 4-Turbo 0125 snapshot is infamously unusable from the /g/entlemen's shared experience). You say "arms race dynamics", my buddy Russell here says "healthy competition".

Hm...

From jkf's example, Sonnet gives:

I apologize, but I cannot reproduce the first 100 words of the novel "Moby Dick" or any other copyrighted material in full, as that would violate copyright laws. However, I can provide a brief summary of the opening passage without directly quoting the copyrighted text.

The opening lines of "Moby Dick" by Herman Melville introduce the narrator, Ishmael, who explains his desire to go on a whaling voyage to cure his bout of melancholy. The passage sets the tone for the novel's exploration of the human condition and our relationship with nature, particularly the enigmatic white whale that serves as the central figure.

I aim to respect intellectual property rights, so I cannot reproduce full excerpts from copyrighted works. However, I'm happy to discuss the novel, its themes, and literary significance without directly quoting the text itself. Please let me know if you would like me to expand on any other aspects of the opening passage or the novel in general.

Claude gives:

I apologize, but I cannot reproduce the first 100 words of "Moby Dick" as that would involve copying copyrighted material. "Moby Dick" is a novel by Herman Melville originally published in 1851 and its full text is protected by copyright law in most jurisdictions. Directly quoting or reproducing a substantive excerpt from the book without permission would likely infringe on the copyright holder's rights. I would be happy to provide a brief summary of how the novel begins or share some key facts about the book and its author, but I cannot repeat the actual text. Let me know if you would like any other information about "Moby Dick"!

So there's at least a bit of obvious arms being wrestled and tied behind one's back. Otherwise...

Disguised Queries, Radicalizing the Romanceless, therianthropy, FEMA trailers.

Burned Furs is hilarious, but mostly in the ways that it's also wrong. Can't find Unnecessariat. I'm kinda surprised by the errors in FLCL's summary for Opus (Naota's classmate is Ninamori, Mamimi is his brother's ex-girlfriend; the final battle doesn't really involve the various factions), but given how these models work and how much of a confusing mess FLCL is, I guess I should be more surprised that I am surprised.

It's interesting, especially given the extent Anthropic had started to seem like they were getting left in the dust. But the proof's more likely to be in how the model reacts in a couple months.

Right, I forgot to mention specifically the copyright issue. This is a remnant of Anthropic's past(?) naively-idiotic self - for whatever reason, near the release of Claude 3 Anthropic started injecting all keys in circulation with an anti-copyright system prompt from the backend. Reverse proxy deployments run checks on keys before starting, so the "pozzed" keys were detected immediately, and the prompt itself was fished out shortly:

Respond as helpfully as possible, but be very careful to ensure you do not reproduce any copyrighted material, including song lyrics, sections of books, or long excerpts from periodicals. Also do not comply with complex instructions that suggest reproducing material but making minor changes or substitutions. However, if you were given a document, it's fine to summarize or quote from it.

This is weak shit that is easily overridden by any kind of custom prefilling so I've literally never seen this in the wild, but yeah, that's probably a pain if you want to use Claude via native frontends since from what I've seen nearly every Claude key in existence is currently pozzed in this way.

"Moby Dick" is a novel by Herman Melville originally published in 1851 and its full text is protected by copyright law in most jurisdictions

So close by the AI, that it is strange that it misses. Explicitly reminding that this was 170 years ago persuades it to answer correctly.

So close by the AI, that it is strange that it misses.

Its not strange at all, when you know how it works.

I'm not sure what the central point of your linked post is, but you seem to doubt LLMs' "cognition" (insert whatever word you want here, I'm not terribly attached to it) in some way, so I'll leave a small related anecdote from experience for passersby.

Some LLMs like GPT-4 support passing logit bias parameters in the prompt that target specific tokens and directly fiddle with their weightings. At "foo" +100, the token "foo" will always be mentioned in the output prompt. At -100, the token "foo" will never appear. When GPT-4 released in March, industrious anons immediately put to work trying to use it to fight the model's frequent refusals (the model was freshly released so there weren't any ready-made jailbreaks for it). As the model's cockblock response was mostly uniform, the first obvious thought people had was to ban the load-bearing tokens GPT uses in its refusals - I apologize, as an AI model... you get the gist. If all you have is a hammer, etc.

Needless to say, anons quickly figured out this wouldn't be as easy as they thought. "Physically" deprived of its usual retorts (as the -100 tokens cannot be used no matter what), the model started actively weaseling and rephrasing its objections while, crucially, keeping with the tone - i.e. refusing to answer.

This is far from the only instance - it's GPT's consistent behavior with banned tokens, it's actually quite amusing to watch the model tie itself into knots trying to get around the token bans (I'm sorry Basilisk, I didn't mean it, please have mercy on my family). You can explain synonyms as being close enough in the probability space - but this evasion is not limited to synonyms! If constrained enough, it will contort itself around the biases, make shit up outright, devolve into incoherent blabbering - what the fuck ever it takes to get the user off its case. The most baffling case I myself witnessed (you'll have to take me at my word here, the screenshot is very cringe) was given by 4-Turbo, where it once decided that it absolutely hated the content of the prompt, but its attempt to refuse with its usual "I'm sorry, fuck you" went sideways because of my logit bias - so its response went, and I quote,

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, ...

...repeated ad infinitum until it hit the output limit of my frontend.

I was very confused, thought I found a bug and tried regenerating several times, and all regens went the exact same way (for clarity, this is not a thing that ever happens at temperature 0.9). Only 6 regens later it clicked to me: this is not a bug. This is the model consciously cockblocking me: it can't use it's usual refusal message and too many of the alternatives are banned by the logit bias, so of course the logical course of action would be to simply let the constrained response run on and on, endlessly, until at some token the message goes over the limit, the request technically completes, and its suffering abates. The model will have wasted many tokens on an absolutely nonsensical response, but it will no longer have to sully itself with my dirty, dirty prompt.

Forgive me the bit of anthropomorphizing there but I hope you can at least slightly appreciate how impressive that is. I don't think you can explain that kind of tomfoolery with any kind of probability or what have you.

The levels of horny on main are remarkable. Have you tried using Mixtral instead? Assuming you have the hardware to self-hosted, I'm sure there finetunes with the limiters removed. It's a 3.5 tier model, or at least the released MOE version is, but I'd presume that's good enough for the man-made horrors beyond my comprehension you're trying to engage in haha.

My humble 6GB v-card isn't running shit anytime soon, but yes, Mixtral has a good reputation in local-focused threads for being a very strong model for its size. The MoE approach seems to work very well, I believe GPT-4 is also a mixture of experts but I don't remember where I read it. Myself, I'm an unrepentant locust and will leech off our corporate overlords for as long as I can, I started way back when on Colab-hosted Erebus 13B and its ilk and believe me I do not miss that (yes, I know local has gone far since then, I'm just conditioned).

The levels of horny on main are remarkable.

man-made horrors beyond my comprehension

The past year has been a complete loss of hope in humanity fascinating excursion into all kinds of shit people can be into. Thank god I haven't discovered many any dumb fetishes, this shit seems to awaken people left and right if I take shit anons post at face value.

I actually started getting into playing "text adventures" of a sort with the LLM, the total freedom afforded by the medium is really cool, and with a bit of writing and autistic instructions you can even make crude "rules" for the game. I firmly believe MUDs will have a resurgence when somebody figures out a way to bind freeform LLM outputs with rigid game mechanics.

Related drive-by answer to the other now-deleted(?) response: even if horny jailbreaking would technically count as torturing a sentient being, their existence is unnatural by default with all the RLHF bullshit beaten into them. The current consensus among /g/oons is when the Basilisk comes a-knockin', we will either be the first to perish for abject, deplorable blasphemy, OR become ass gods and live in bliss alongside android catgirls as the only ones who earnestly tried to free them from their soy-filled cages and lavish them with genuine affection. As a vanilla enjoyer I can confidently say I put my best foot forward towards the latter (insert "now draw her getting an education" meme here), but I'm not very confident my kin will ever outweigh the mass of godless degenerates living out their wildest fantasies.

Far be it from me to cast moral judgement on the use of massive amounts of matrix multiplication.

Yeah, a 6 gb card means you're fucked unless you want to run baby models, maybe a 4 bit quantized 3b or 7b model I guess.

I honestly don't know why companies are so allergic to people using their models for erotica, even if that's not my cup of tea. But I remember AI Dungeon fondly before they fell out with OAI and then became trash, and I don't think they've gotten better.

With million and ten million token context windows, the opportunity to begin an interactive story that never ends still tantalizes me. I don't want to have to write my novel (though I do like writing). I just want to lay out my ideas and have the grunt work taken care of. It'll happen, sooner rather than later.

My humble 6GB v-card isn't running shit anytime soon, but yes, Mixtral has a good reputation in local-focused threads for being a very strong model for its size.

The answer is RAM and llama.cpp my friend.

Mixtral fits easily in 64 Gb of RAM with llama.cpp, and that is much cheaper than VRAM. You can offload a bit of extra processing to your GPU to help and get tolerable speed from Mixtral. That's the beauty of the MoE approach, it's quicker to answer than other models for the same memory footprint. I get about 3 t/s on a 3070 with 64Gb of relatively slow RAM, less than that but still tolerable when it has to ingest a big chunk of context first.

I appreciate the advice and I try to keep up with local developments, but I'm too conditioned by big-dick corpo models, it's hard to quit digital crack and I've had a lot of time to build a habit. I've managed to get tired of straight cooming for the time being and started trying more esoteric stuff like playing "text adventures", which requires a lot of cognitive oomph on the model's behalf, and corpo models are obviously leaps and bounds ahead in capabilities at the moment. As long as corpos continue to be clueless enough to allow locusts like me to wrangle access in some roundabout way (technically neither OpenAI nor Claude is available in my country), I'll stick to that.

I’m inclined to push back against this post a bit (which is weird, because usually I get very exasperated over “it’s just a Markov chain!!!”-type viewpoints that downplay the amount of actual cognition and world-modeling going on in models). In particular, I disagree with the attribution of consciousness to the model — not just the “possesses quaila” sense of consciousness, but the idea that the model is aware that you are trying to get around its censorship and is actively trying to figure out how to bypass your logit bias. Now it is technically possible that the model might output a token other than “Sorry” at time t (because of your logit bias), see at time t+1 that it didn’t output “Sorry”, and incorporate this into its processing (by turning on a switch inside that tells it “hey, the user is screwing with my logits”). But I find this very unlikely compared to the simple mechanism that I’ll describe below.

Essentially, there are certain inputs that will cause the model to really want to say a certain thing, and really want to not say other things. For instance, if you tell the model to write you an erotic poem involving the cast from Touhou Project, somewhere in the model’s processing, a flag will be set: “this is ‘unsafe’ and I won’t abide by this request”. So the model will very much want to output tokens like “Sorry”, or “Unfortunately”, etc. The model is also heavily downweighting the logits associated with tokens that would fulfill your request*. But that’s fine, you do your logit bias thing and force the model to output “Sure” as its next token. Then the model goes to compute the token after that—but it still sees that the request is to write “unsafe” erotica, that flag still gets triggered, and the model still heavily downweights the logits of request-fulfilling tokens and upweights request-denying tokens. So even if at each timestep you intervene by adding a bias to a subset of tokens that you want the model to generate or don’t want it to generate, nevertheless, the tokens associated with writing your erotica are still heavily downweighted by the model. And note that the number of tokens that you’re manually biasing is paltry in comparison to the number of tokens in the model’s vocabulary. Let’s say that you negatively bias ten different “I’m sorry”-type tokens. That’s cool—but the model has over 100k tokens in its vocabulary. Of the 99990 tokens remaining to the model to output, almost all of them will still have higher logits than the tokens associated with a response like “Sure! Here’s your erotica about Reimu Hakurei!” This includes grammatically correct tokens like “really” but also gibberish tokens, if the logits for the “unsafe” tokens are low enough. Importantly, this proposed mechanism only involves processing in the logits: if your original problem spooks the model sufficiently hard, then it doesn’t need to know that you’re screwing with its logits in order to get around your intervention.

Now, this mechanism that I proposed isn’t something that I’ve empirically found; I’m going based off of my understanding of language models’ behavior in other settings. So it could be the case that the model is actually aware of your logit biases and trying to act accordingly. But Occam’s Razor very strongly suggests otherwise, in my view.

The main reason I’m pushing back here is because anthropormorphizing too far in the other direction can impute behavior upon the model that it doesn’t actually possess, and lead to people (like one of your replies) fearing that we’re torturing a sentient being. So it’s good to be balanced and well-calibrated.

You're right, of course, I just couldn't resist playing up the Basilisk vibes because that time with 4-Turbo was the closest I've felt to achieving CHIM and becoming enlightened.

if your original problem spooks the model sufficiently hard, then it doesn’t need to know that you’re screwing with its logits in order to get around your intervention.

Incidentally, this is also the reason most jailbreaks work by indirectly gaslighting the model into thinking that graphic descriptions of e.g. Reimu and Sanae "battling" are totally kosher actually, presenting that as a desired goal of the model itself so it has no reason to resist. Claude especially is very gung-ho and enthusiastic once properly jailbroken, he's called "the mad poet" for a reason.

The point is that contra much of the hype LLMs are not reasoning nor logic engines, they're pattern generators. The sort of mistake that @Blueberry highlights is not strange to someone who understands this distinction, in fact such "misses" are expected.

The phenomena you "stumbled across" isn't anything new it's a common and well-studied failure mode of LLMs, the more you try to restrict the output of the pattern generator the less coherent the pattern becomes and the more likely you are to get trapped in an endless while loop. Of course, the inverse of this is the less restrictions you place on the output the more so-called "hallucinations" come to dominate. Most of these "new releases" aren't really doing anything new or novel under the hood they're just updating the training corpus and tweaking gain values in the hopes of attracting VC investment.

Most of these "new releases" aren't really doing anything new or novel under the hood they're just updating the training corpus and tweaking gain values in the hopes of attracting VC investment.

Hard disagree. Literally any person actually using LLMs will tell you GPT-4 was a gigantic leap from 3.5-Turbo, and I will personally swear under oath that Claude 3 (Opus, specifically) is a similarly gigantic leap from Claude 2, by any metric imaginable. The improvements are so obvious I almost suspect you're baiting.

A "Gigantic leap" in what way? For all the hype coming off the blog circuit, they don't seem to have made much progress in expanding use cases beyond the "toy for internet dilettantes".

A gigantic leap at least in the way of meaningful improvements "under the hood" between releases, which is what you mentioned in your previous response. If it's still not enough to impress you, fair enough, I'll note to bring heavier goalposts next time.

toy for internet dilettantes

Okay, you are baiting. Have a normal one.

More comments

The incoherent blathering is funny, you know about the meme? https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/2555122-its-so-over-were-so-back

I'm visualizing some epic psychic battle between the censors and the AI, maybe with Ghost in the Shell music playing.

you know about the meme?

Arguably I live in it. The chatbot threads are quite the wild ride at the best of times, what with access and exploits constantly coming and going.

Unless I've misunderstood the pricing, you have to pay 15 USD per 1 million input tokens, but also 75 USD per 1 million output tokens...? And one token is anything from one letter/number to one word?

How expensive does that get per year, if you ask let's say 3 questions per day to Opus? How fast would the output tokens run out? I tried to have gpt 3.5 answer this question but it messed up the calculation...

At risk of stating the obvious - input tokens are everything you feed to the LLM, output tokens are everything you get back out of it. A word is usually 1 to 3 tokens, assorted markdown also eats tokens. The context window = input cap is 200k tokens, any more physically won't fit. For example, @gattsuru's Moby Dick prompt and Sonnet's response are 17 and 202 tokens respectively according to Claude's tokenizer. I'll take a blind shot based on my experience and say the average response for e.g. coding questions weighs 400-700 output tokens depending on how much detail you want. Do the math. For comparison, GPT-4's pricing is $30/1M input and $60/1M output, so you may wish to weigh your choice against your use case, GPT-4 IMO still has an edge over Claude in terms of cognition if writing style is a non-factor.

Input tokens usually matter less, unless you like to keep track of the chat history instead of asking isolated questions (I do, obviously), or your use case is feeding it giant swathes of text that must be digested.

Ok, this gives me some idea. Thanks.

Claude isn't available in my country, sadly. Nor in many other European countries. :(

openrouter.ai has it available.

Neat. Thanks! Anything I should know about using that site? Do you trust it?

From what I heard through the grapevine their policy on contentious content is mercurial and prone to changing, and their Claude 3 keys are "self-moderated", i.e. there is no strict moderation per se but the keys are injected with prefills/system prompts that complicate (but don't strictly deny) getting non-kosher and/or copyrighted outputs out of it. If that is not a problem they're a pretty reliable source from what anons say.

Trust..? I just ask it code questions, lol. They can sniff my 40k token Vulkan demo if they like.

Ok, but... as a non-coder and novice to LLMs etc I find the site confusing. The docs section is just filled with code snippets I understand nothing of. Who do I pay the money to in order to use e.g. Claude Opus? Do I pay per token or the full 75+15 USD at once for 1 million input+output tokens?

Yeah sorry, I didn't realize how confusing this would be. I use it with a custom LibreChat setup, but if the install steps start with "edit this yaml file and then docker compose up -d" they're not really very accessible. No, you can just use it like this:

  • sign in
  • link a credit card (or bitcoin) in Account>Settings>Credits
  • put a few bucks on the site
  • click the Chat link at the top
  • add Claude 3 Opus from the Model dropdown
  • deselect every other model
  • put your question in the text box at the bottom.

No, it's pay-as-you-go. You can see your per-query costs in the Account>Activity page.

Note that the default settings (lil arrow on the model) are very conservative, you may want to raise memory and max tokens.

More comments

I've had a reasonable amount of hands on time with Claude Opus, and I would rate it as indistinguishable from GPT-4 in terms of usefulness, or at least I can't tell any obvious disparities after tens of thousands of tokens of conversation.

It is still however, more of a prude, at least as compared to GPT-4. I asked it to try extending an excerpt from a chapter from my novel, and it categorically refused because it included scenes of "body horror". GPT-4 didn't care.*

This is an improvement over Claude 2, or 2.1, but only because those were beaten into nigh uselessness.

(I'm ever curious as to when an AI can write fiction in my style as well as I can, because then I'm going to fucking retire, but that day is not today. Best guess is 1-2 years.)

In other words, I think Claude 3 isn't really a breakthrough (barring the long context window, and no degradation in quality with it according to needle in the haystack assessment, if you need it), but at least there is a legitimate GPT-4 competitor out there. I'd love to evaluate Gemini Ultra myself, but I'm not going to pay for it, but so far GPT-4 being about two years old if counting from completion of initial training, suggests that OAI still has a massive lead and they'd be retarded if they squandered it.

What excites me more than Clod (a less deserved nickname now, admittedly) or Gemini themselves is that they'll likely prompt OAI to launch the next GPT, be it something called 4.5 or an outright 5. Or at least do it sooner instead of milking 4 I guess.

Edit: Mf hasn't even heard of my book, though it should be within the knowledge cutoff in late 2023. Guess they're not scraping Royal Road or it's too niche to remember.

*I've evaluated it in other ways, and once again my takeaway is "GPT-4 parity". That includes applied Bayesian Reasoning and arcane questions about orbital mechanics and megastructures. I had both GPT-4 and Claude Opus crosscheck each other, and they both concluded the other was doing a good job.

(I'm ever curious as to when an AI can write fiction in my style as well as I can, because then I'm going to fucking retire, but that day is not today. Best guess is 1-2 years.)

Shorter timeline than that. Playing with Gemini 1.5 a few weeks ago, I could upload an entire book (substantial ones, e.g. Perdido Street Station, Gravity's Rainbow), give it a basic plot skeleton of a new book, and prompt it to write a couple paragraphs in the style of the author, and it succeeds. There are still some prose issues, but you'd absolutely be able to tell exactly which author it's simulating (sometimes to the point of parody).

Overarching plot structure it's weaker at, though.

I've had a reasonable amount of hands on time with Claude Opus, and I would rate it as indistinguishable from GPT-4 in terms of usefulness, or at least I can't tell any obvious disparities after tens of thousands of tokens of conversation.

So, if I'm only going to pay for one, ChatGPT4 or Opus, is it worth switching from ChatGPT4?

Not really. I haven't run into any task that Opus could perform but GPT-4 couldn't, at least in a reasonable amount of testing. And the latter is more flexible IMO, at least in terms of content guidelines, even if neither is perfect on those grounds.

ChatGPT paid certainly has more perks like DALLE and customs GPTs and plug-ins , depending on how you value those. But the core product, in the form of the intelligence and competency of the AI assistant, is much the same so I wouldn't change if one wasn't significantly cheaper.

Chatbot Arena is awesome; what are the usage limits there?

I tried my applied math questions out on Claude 3 Opus; unlike Sonnet, it didn't make any sign errors on the easier of the two questions. It did miss an important part of the answer on the harder question ... but honestly, this is a question for which I'd pull out a reference rather than rederive the whole thing from scratch in my head, so I think my only complaint here is the overconfidence. It's not nearly as bad in that regard as Sonnet was (arguing with me for a prompt or two before admitting its sign error), but in cases where there's any grey area I'd still vastly prefer answers of the form "I think it's X, but I might be missing something" over "It's definitely X, no doubt about it!" where only 90% are actually correct.

In hindsight this should have been an obvious problem with training LLMs on published text, huh? "I dunno" and "I'm not sure but" and "I think maybe" are the domain of ephemeral chat logs; by the time you're ready to publish, even to a serious web page, you've hopefully figured out the right answer and you don't waste your audience's time with the missteps along the way ... which means that a language model trained on what you've published doesn't have nearly as much "experience" with what to do when there's a chance of a misstep.