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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   8657 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of April 6, 2026

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How Trump Took the US to War in Iran

Netanyahu claimed it would be possible to effect quick regime change via Mossad-aided protests and even arming the Kurds (who apparently just kept the guns, having learned from past American 'support').

Mr. Netanyahu and his team outlined conditions they portrayed as pointing to near-certain victory: Iran’s ballistic missile program could be destroyed in a few weeks. The regime would be so weakened that it could not choke off the Strait of Hormuz, and the likelihood that Iran would land blows against U.S. interests in neighboring countries was assessed as minimal.

Mossad is obviously too smart for this to have been their true assessment. The CIA quickly realized it was BS:

The intelligence officials had deep expertise in U.S. military capabilities, and they knew the Iranian system and its players inside out. They had broken down Mr. Netanyahu’s presentation into four parts. First was decapitation — killing the ayatollah. Second was crippling Iran’s capacity to project power and threaten its neighbors. Third was a popular uprising inside Iran. And fourth was regime change, with a secular leader installed to govern the country.

The U.S. officials assessed that the first two objectives were achievable with American intelligence and military power. They assessed that the third and fourth parts of Mr. Netanyahu’s pitch, which included the possibility of the Kurds mounting a ground invasion of Iran, were detached from reality. The C.I.A. director used one word to describe the Israeli prime minister’s regime change scenarios: “farcical.” At that point, Mr. Rubio cut in. “In other words, it’s bullshit,” he said.

The president then turned to General Caine. “General, what do you think?” General Caine replied: “Sir, this is, in my experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed. They know they need us, and that’s why they’re hard-selling.”

So, Trump's team at least was not snookered by claims of easy victory. But as chairman of the JCS, Caine had to walk the fine line between giving military advice and administering politics.

He also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. Mr. Trump had dismissed that possibility on the assumption that the regime would capitulate before it came to that. The president appeared to think it would be a very quick war — an impression that had been reinforced by the tepid response to the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities in June. General Caine’s role in the lead-up to the war captured a classic tension between military counsel and presidential decision-making. So persistent was the chairman in not taking a stand — repeating that it was not his role to tell the president what to do, but rather to present options along with potential risks and possible second- and third-order consequences — that he could appear to some of those listening to be arguing all sides of an issue simultaneously. At no point during the deliberations did the chairman directly tell the president that war with Iran was a terrible idea — though some of General Caine’s colleagues believed that was exactly what he thought.

It's reminiscent of the bind that the JCS was in back in 1964-65, when LBJ played them against each other and silenced their belief in a full military commitment so that he could tiptoe into the Vietnam War without anyone noticing. Meanwhile Vance was the most dovish of his advisors.

In January, when Mr. Trump publicly warned Iran to stop killing protesters and promised that help was on its way, Mr. Vance had privately encouraged the president to enforce his red line. But what the vice president pushed for was a limited, punitive strike, something closer to the model of Mr. Trump’s missile attack against Syria in 2017 over the use of chemical weapons against civilians. The vice president thought a regime-change war with Iran would be a disaster. His preference was for no strikes at all. But knowing that Mr. Trump was likely to intervene in some fashion, he tried to steer toward more limited action. Later, when it seemed certain that the president was set on a large-scale campaign, Mr. Vance argued that he should do so with overwhelming force, in the hope of achieving his objectives quickly.

The deciding factor against negotiations was, apparently, really stupid. Why on earth would the Iranians want to be taking handouts from the US like this?

That same week, Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff called from Geneva after the latest talks with Iranian officials. Over three rounds of negotiations in Oman and Switzerland, the two had tested Iran’s willingness to make a deal. At one point, they offered the Iranians free nuclear fuel for the life of their program — a test of whether Tehran’s insistence on enrichment was truly about civilian energy or about preserving the ability to build a bomb. The Iranians rejected the offer, calling it an assault on their dignity.

It seems like his team would have decided against intervention if the choice was up to them. Ultimately the buck stops with Trump, and everyone else who's come this far is willing to live with his decisions.

They had broken down Mr. Netanyahu’s presentation into four parts. First was decapitation — killing the ayatollah. Second was crippling Iran’s capacity to project power and threaten its neighbors. Third was a popular uprising inside Iran. And fourth was regime change, with a secular leader installed to govern the country.

The U.S. officials assessed that the first two objectives were achievable with American intelligence and military power.

I mean, 1 & 2 sound like the important ones from a US perspective, specifically item 2, so... what's the problem?

Wow. This story basically hands a giant bazooka to the anti Semitic wing of the Republican party. MAGA will do anything to shift blame away from Trump. Before this, the MO was the old Good Tsar, Bad Boyars schtick. But now there's a clear scapegoat: It's the (Israeli) Jews' fault.

Nick Fuentes will be eating good it seems.

The thing is, there's no way to shift blame away from Trump onto Israel without making Trump look weak in the process, and MAGA does not want to make Trump look weak. I think that most of MAGA, the rank and file rather than the strategists, also genuinely don't think Trump did anything bad or wrong in this war.

Yeah this is the Right's "It's not happening, oh it is happening and it's GOOD" moment. Every new detail we learn makes it painfully evident that there's a severe blind spot in Trump's cognitive abilities to model second and third order consequences. This is worse than Iraq. I don't know what is going to happen after the midterms and October elections in Israel. We're not going to realise the fullest consequences of this war until 4-5 years later. Iran is definitely building a bomb, so I suspect Israel will keep striking them indefinitely, with or without US help.

The "story" doesn't do anything. That bazooka was made in israel and hand-delivered by mossad. Israel did, in fact, lie and pressure america into a pointless, expensive war. Israeli influence over US politics is worse than iran having nukes when compared against replacement (using the money we would have spent on welfare, tax cuts, or paying down the debt.) Also DJT is a dumbass, but even if the feebleminded elderly are ultimately responsible for believing the nigerian princes of the world, their children are still entitled to be mad about it.

I don't buy the stories coming out of the White House.

There are 2 groups who have information.

One is those who have recently left the MAGA coalition (eg: Joe Kent). They seek to be re-integrated back into conventional politics. This group must find a narrative that fits : "I joined MAGA with the purest of intentions, but I could never have guessed that it was comprised because {reasons}". Israel as puppet-master is a perfect scapegoat for such a narrative.

Second is those who are still part of MAGA, but must find a reason for the sloppiness of the war with Iran. They must find a narrative that fits : "MAGA runs a tight ship, but our perfect plans got foiled by an outside {reason}". 'Bad intelligence from Israel' is the perfect story.

I will stick to the more plausible explanation (not necessarily Occam's Razor, but close) until proven otherwise. Iran has been an American military goal for decades. Trump thought he could could a Venezuela 2.0 with Iran. It did not work. The US has 30x the military spend & apparatus of Israel. If Trump takes major geopolitical decisions based on power point presentations from Netanyahu, then that makes Trump look incompetent rather than making Israel look malicious.

I joined MAGA with the purest of intentions, but I could never have guessed that it was comprised because {reasons}

Is “I joined MAGA with the purest of intentions, but I made a bad decision” not an option?

Not if you want to be re-elected.

Ah, I read the OP again, we’re talking about politicians, not voters or commentators.

Perhaps this is just the right moment for electoral comeuppance, if you back a bad horse in politics you get taken down.

The GOP needs new blood that’s neither subservient to Trump nor wacko, but I guess grifters, wafflers, and “the Jews made me do it”-ers are what we get. If either party could stop being idiotic and start actually dealing with our domestic crises like adults, that would be great.

If either party could stop being idiotic and start actually dealing with our domestic crises like adults, that would be great.

The adults in the room on the Republican side are Mitt Romney, Robert Dole and John McCain, and the latter two are starting to smell a bit. The adults in the room on the Democratic side are Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, which isn't any better.

The adults in the room on the Republican side are Mitt Romney, Robert Dole and John McCain, and the latter two are starting to smell a bit.

I imagine McCain is smelling quite a bit, since he has been dead for several years now. My question is why his rotting corpse is in the room.

Is the path back to

conventional politics

Through

Israel as puppet-master

I would have thought that path leads further right.

In my observation, theories about Israel being a subversive and negative force in US politics are about equally common on the left and the right.

Conventional politics of the future is antisemitic. There is bipartisan agreement on it among the youth.

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